577
FXUS65 KPSR 300912
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
212 AM MST SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHTER, MORE SEASONABLE WIND SPEEDS WITH ONLY MODEST AFTERNOON
BREEZES WILL BE COMMON THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING A SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS NOW SHOW THE
CORE OF THE SYSTEM NOW OVER EASTERN UTAH, AND CONTINUING ITS JOURNEY
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THE LOW PUSHES PAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER OUR REGION
WILL SLOWLY ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS, AND QUASI-LINEAR FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO ONE LAST DAY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE LOWER DESERTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
WITH SUNDAY BETWEEN 582-585 DAM, AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 90S, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS BETWEEN 100F-101F. VERY NARROW
SPREAD REMAINS ON THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC NBM GUIDANCE AS
CONFIDENCE IS EXCELLENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL CONUS, AND
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE DESERT SW. IN TURN, TO KICK
OFF THE WORK WEEK AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE 101F-105F,
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK
WILL DEVELOP.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BY TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALREADY BE PRESENT CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL CONUS AND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 2F-4F DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. LOCALIZED AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
VERY STEADY WITH ONLY A 1F-2F DEGREES DIFFERENCE DAY TO DAY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP COOLING OVERNIGHT, WHERE LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO 1F-2F
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO
A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0500Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL LIGHT AND DIURNAL
TENDENCIES WITH PERIODS OF VRB CONDITIONS DURING DIRECTIONAL
SHIFTS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS WILL RESUME AT KIPL WITH W'RLY FLOW
BECOMING SE'RLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT KBLH, OUTSIDE OF VRB
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL FAVOR A W'RLY COMPONENT THROUGH
THE FORECAST, WITH SOME OSCILLATIONS BETWEEN SW AND NW.
FIRE WEATHER
LIGHTER WINDS FOLLOWING MOSTLY DIURNAL UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY AND
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL, WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL QUICKLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON MINRHS WILL BE IN THE 10-20%
RANGE AREAWIDE TODAY, THEN FURTHER DECREASE TO AN 8-15% RANGE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON MINRHS WILL COMMONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AREAWIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BEGIN
TO BE LESS ROBUST, DECREASING INTO A 25-45% RANGE TONIGHT, AND
THEN IN THE 20-35% RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/WHITTOCK
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