460
FXUS65 KPSR 301704
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1004 AM MST SAT MAY 30 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHTER, MORE SEASONABLE WIND SPEEDS WITH ONLY MODEST AFTERNOON
BREEZES WILL BE COMMON THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING A SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL CATEGORY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE CORE
OF THE SYSTEM NOW OVER EASTERN UTAH, AND CONTINUING ITS JOURNEY
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THE LOW PUSHES PAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER OUR REGION
WILL SLOWLY ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS, AND QUASI-LINEAR FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO ONE LAST DAY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE LOWER DESERTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
WITH SUNDAY BETWEEN 582-585 DAM, AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 90S WITH LOCALIZED AREAS BETWEEN 100F-101F. VERY NARROW SPREAD
REMAINS ON THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC NBM GUIDANCE AS CONFIDENCE IS
EXCELLENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL CONUS AND POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE DESERT SW. IN TURN, TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE 101F-105F, OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK WILL DEVELOP.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BY TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALREADY BE PRESENT CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL CONUS AND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 2F-4F DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. LOCALIZED AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY
STEADY WITH ONLY A 1F-2F DEGREES DIFFERENCE DAY TO DAY. OTHERWISE,
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WHICH WILL HELP
COOLING OVERNIGHT, WHERE LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO 1F-2F DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO COOL BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A CUT OFF LOW
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1705Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. CONFIDENCE IS VERY GOOD THAT WEST WINDS WILL
ESTABLISH SOON (IF NOT ALREADY) AND PERSIST INTO LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO EAST. ACROSS SE
CALIFORNIA, EXPECT WINDS TO FOLLOW FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS, WITH
EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABILITY AND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY FAVORING
A WESTERLY COMPONENT DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LIGHT WINDS WITH SPEEDS BELOW 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL, AND GUSTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL TO ABSENT THIS TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
LIGHTER WINDS FOLLOWING MOSTLY DIURNAL UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY AND
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL, WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL QUICKLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON MINRHS WILL BE IN THE 10-20% RANGE
AREAWIDE TODAY, THEN FURTHER DECREASE TO AN 8-15% RANGE SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON MINRHS WILL COMMONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AREAWIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BEGIN TO BE LESS
ROBUST, DECREASING INTO A 25-45% RANGE TONIGHT, AND THEN IN THE 20-
35% RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...WHITTOCK/18
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/WHITTOCK
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