839
FXUS65 KPSR 310842
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
142 AM MST SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BEFORE WARMING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
- LIGHTER, MORE SEASONABLE WIND SPEEDS WITH ONLY MODEST AFTERNOON
BREEZES WILL BE COMMON THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UPPER-LEVEL IMAGERY AND 500MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOW QUASI-LINEAR FLOW
OVER AZ AND SOUTHERN CA, WITH A SWATH OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION.
THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARDS TO THE NORTH OF
OUR REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW WELL INTO CENTRAL WY. THIS
HAS HELPED ALLEVIATE THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, RETURNING
THE REGION TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF LIGHT WINDS, WITH AN
OCCASIONAL BREEZY AFTERNOON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
QUASI-LINEAR FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT TODAY LEADING TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, ~100F. BY MONDAY AN
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AREA. BY MONDAY, AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS, H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 585-588 DAM RANGE, RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL OR BETWEEN 101F-105F DEGREES. THIS PATTERN WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK, DUE TO THIS TEMPERATURES
DAY TO DAY WILL ONLY VARY BY 1F-2F DEGREES. WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY, ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE
HEATRISK WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS (MOST
NOTABLY ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER REGION). REMEMBER TO PRACTICE
SMART HEAT SAFETY BY DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER AND ELECTROLYTES AND
LIMITING YOUR TIME OUTDOORS (ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS).
OTHERWISE, THE AMPLE DRY AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH CALMER WINDS WILL
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT.
EXPECT MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARDS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY, THEN AFTERWARDS A CUT OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY IN
NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS WHAT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TREND BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY WILL NOT
FEEL THE FULL EFFECT OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW AS H5 HEIGHTS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 582-585 DAM. WHILE THESE HEIGHTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
BETWEEN 101F-104F DEGREES. STARTING FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL, ~100F, AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO LOWER
SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THESE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0520Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH SPEEDS REMAINING GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. THERE
MAY ALSO BE EXTENDED PERIODS OF CALM AND VRB CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
AND PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF ANY WIND SHIFTS.
FIRE WEATHER
LIGHT WINDS WILL MAINLY FOLLOW THEIR DIURNAL UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY AND
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS THROUGH MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
SOME OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED AS WELL. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY MONDAY AND WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT
LEAST THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. MINRHS WILL BE AROUND 5-10% TODAY AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL WILL BE AROUND 20-35% THROUGHOUT THE
WORKWEEK, WITH THE DRIEST DAY EXPECTED MID WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN/BERISLAVICH
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/BERISLAVICH
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