752
FXUS65 KPSR 021716
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1016 AM MST TUE JUN 2 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BEFORE RETREATING CLOSER TO NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND.
- OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN ARIZONA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND HIGHER
TERRAIN COMMUNITIES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OMEGA BLOCKING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS, HOWEVER THIS
PATTERN WILL BE DISLODGED AND REALIGNED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS DUE
TO STRONGER PROGRESSIVE WAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW.
MEANWHILE, AN ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL JET PERSISTS OVER THE SW CONUS IN
THIS SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEGINNING
TO INFLUENCE THE PROGRESSION FURTHER SOUTH. THE PREPONDERANCE OF
MODELING CONTINUES TO PUSH A NOTABLE SOUTHERN STREAM VORTICITY
CENTER FARTHER SOUTH INTO MEXICO LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
WEAKER FLOW AND HIGHER HEIGHTS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AS A
RESULT, H5 HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO A 585-587DM RANGE DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY 5F OR MORE
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TIPS MORE OF THE CWA JUST INTO A MODERATE
HEATRISK CATEGORY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER WELL SHORT
OF RECORDS AND NOT TERRIBLY UNUSUAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
DESPITE THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORTICITY CENTER DIVING WELL SOUTH INTO
MEXICO MIDWEEK, THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL INTO A FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE PATTERN ALOFT WITH MARGINALLY DECENT ASCENT MECHANISMS.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT THUNDERSTORMS MATERIALIZING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL SEND WESTWARD PROPAGATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA IMPROVING OVERALL
MOISTURE PROFILES. CONSEQUENTLY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE
LIKELY NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY LEAKING INTO FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. RATHER THAN ANY
IMPACTS FROM RAINFALL, THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITH LITTLE RAINFALL CAPABLE OF SPARKING WILDFIRES IN DRY LATE
SPRING FUELS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE FULL SUITE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE NORTHERN MEXICO SHORTWAVE SLOWLY EJECTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME MEASURE OF RIDGING HOLDING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF DEEPER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES APPROACHING
THE WEST COAST. THE TREND AMONG THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP
IS TOWARDS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST
PACIFIC RESULTING IN LESS LOCAL INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT FALLS AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WAVE LAGS THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. AS A RESULT, H5 HEIGHTS MAY ONLY DECREASE MODESTLY
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO A 582-585DM RANGE AND TEMPERATURES ONLY
COOLING NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. NUMERICAL SPREAD REMAINS QUITE
LARGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME REDUCING FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL FORCE
AN INCREASED LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING WIND
GUSTS BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AND HEIGHTENING THE POTENTIAL FIRE
DANGER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES FURTHER DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK TIED TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF TROUGHING
ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS, BUT THERE ARE A GROWING NUMBER OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING MORE PREDOMINANT RIDGING AND WARMING
VERSUS PREVIOUS ITERATIONS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1720Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR
DIURNAL TRENDS, NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. DISTANT CUMULUS WILL FORM OVER THE
EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN TODAY, WITH BASES AROUND 15 KFT AGL.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER SKC SKIES. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS WITH
DIRECTIONS OUT OF THE SE-S FAVORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
VEERING OUT OF THE SW-W THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS
INTO THE MID TEENS WILL BE LIKELY AT KBLH, AND EVENING GUSTS
(AFTER 02Z WEDNESDAY) BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW HOURS AT KIPL.
FIRE WEATHER
THE THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH LITTLE RAINFALL IN FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
HAZARD THIS WEEK. WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A DIURNAL UPSLOPE/NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
PATTERN. HOWEVER, GUSTS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS OF EASTERN DISTRICTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF AN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL GENERALLY FALL IN A 5-15% RANGE FOLLOWING A
WIDE RANGING POOR TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF 15-45%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...18
AVIATION...WHITTOCK
FIRE WEATHER...18
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