430
FXUS65 KPSR 030459
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
959 PM MST TUE JUN 2 2026
UPDATE
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AREAS OF MODERATE
HEATRISK WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BEFORE RETREATING
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
- OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN ARIZONA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
AND HIGHER TERRAIN COMMUNITIES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AT MIDDAY TODAY STILL SHOWED AN OMEGA BLOCK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE LOWER 48, AS WELL AS A
WEAK LOW CIRCULATION OFF THE WEST COAST DUE WEST OF LA AND SAN
DIEGO AND SUBTLE CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AZ.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND THE WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE SLIDING
SSE TO CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. THROUGH THIS PROGRESSION THE HEIGHT
FIELD OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM ITS CURRENT
LEVEL. H5 HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 585DAM AND WILL INCREASE UP
TO 586-587DAM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HEIGHTS AT THIS
LEVEL ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF JUNE AND
RESPECTIVELY THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST THE REST OF THE WEEK IS
A FEW DEGREES (4-6F) ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MEANS HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS REACHING UP TO 103-108F, WITH THE HOTTEST
DAYS LOOKING TO BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THESE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WELL SHY OF
DAILY RECORDS WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE 112-116F RANGE.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO CURRENTLY SHOWS A TONGUE OF HIGHER
MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN NM AND INTO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS OF AZ. THIS HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN SOME MIDDAY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. AS THINGS
CONTINUE TO HEAT UP A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP, BUT
STORMS WILL MOSTLY STAY IN NM THIS AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO
TOMORROW, A RETREATING OF THE DRY LINE FURTHER WEST ACROSS NM AND
WESTWARD-PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS SHOULD PUSH MORE
MOISTURE INTO EASTERN AZ. CONSEQUENTLY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME EVEN MORE LIKELY NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY LEAKING INTO FAR EASTERN GILA
COUNTY. LATEST NBM POPS SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MOST HREF
AND REFS MEMBERS DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY, PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND EAST OF US-60. POPS
WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY, UP TO 10-15%, TO AT LEAST REFLECT A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH
ANY STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH LITTLE RAINFALL, CAPABLE
OF SPARKING WILDFIRES IN DRY LATE SPRING FUELS, AND STRONG GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. THE OUTFLOW WINDS MAY HELP GENERATE NEW CONVECTION
IN GILA COUNTY AND PROGRESS WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD LOWER DESERTS IN
THE EVENING. HOW WEDNESDAY EVOLVES MAY DICTATE SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES FOR THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT POP ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE FULL SUITE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE NORTHERN MEXICO SHORTWAVE SLOWLY
EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME MEASURE OF RIDGING
HOLDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF DEEPER NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THE TREND AMONG THE MAJORITY
OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP IS TOWARDS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC RESULTING IN LESS LOCAL
INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT FALLS AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WAVE LAGS THE
SOUTHWEST BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AS A RESULT, H5
HEIGHTS MAY ONLY DECREASE MODESTLY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO A
582-585DM RANGE AND TEMPERATURES ONLY COOLING NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE. NUMERICAL SPREAD REMAINS QUITE LARGE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME REDUCING FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL FORCE AN INCREASED LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING WIND GUSTS BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED AND HEIGHTENING THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES FURTHER DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
TIED TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF TROUGHING ENTERING THE WESTERN
CONUS, BUT THERE ARE A GROWING NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGESTING MORE PREDOMINANT RIDGING AND WARMING VERSUS PREVIOUS
ITERATIONS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0500Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS WITH SPEEDS REMAINING 8
KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A FEW PASSING CIRRUS AND DISTANT HIGH TERRAIN CU
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SE CALIFORNIA TERMINALS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN WESTERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY AT KIPL AND REMAIN PREDOMINANT SOUTHERLY AT
KBLH. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS AT BOTH TERMINALS.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
PASSING HIGH CIRRUS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
THE THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH LITTLE RAINFALL IN
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS THE MAIN FIRE
WEATHER HAZARD THIS WEEK. WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A DIURNAL
UPSLOPE/NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE PATTERN. HOWEVER, GUSTS WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS OF EASTERN
DISTRICTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF AN ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL GENERALLY
FALL IN A 5-15% RANGE FOLLOWING A WIDE RANGING POOR TO FAIR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF 15-45%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BENEDICT
LONG TERM...18
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...18
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