169
FXUS65 KPSR 040713
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1213 AM MST THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MODERATE HEATRISK WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEFORE READINGS RETREAT
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
- OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ARIZONA, DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
- LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN COMMUNITIES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FINDS ITSELF IN THE MIDST OF A MESSY UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH,
AND RIDGING TO THE EAST AND WEST. IN TURN, CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN A
BIT ATYPICAL FOR JUNE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SPAWNING OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME UNSEASONABLY
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS. THIS MOISTURE WILL STICK
AROUND FOR ONE MORE DAY, CREATING A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIMITED IN SCOPE, BEING CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
AROUND ENHANCED TERRAIN FEATURES OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, A VERY ISOLATED CELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN GILA COUNTY. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL
STORMS WILL BE SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 MPH. ANY LOCATIONS THAT FIND THEMSELVES UNDER ANY
RAINFALL WILL ONLY SEE MINIMAL TOTALS, GENERALLY 0.10" OR LESS,
BUT SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
EVEN WITH THIS MESSY UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN, THE REGIONAL HEIGHT FIELD
CONTINUES TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. THIS, IN
TURN, WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR THERMAL PROFILE WARMER THAN NORMAL
DURING THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH FLIRT WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST READINGS WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR AS TEMPERATURES RANGE
BETWEEN 105-109 DEGREES FOR LOWER DESERT COMMUNITIES. PHOENIX AND EL
CENTRO, CA FORECASTED HIGHS ARE AT THE TOP OF THAT RANGE, SO THE
FIRST 110 DEGREE READINGS OF THE YEAR FOR THESE AREAS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. ON AVERAGE, 110F IS REACHED AT THESE LOCATIONS
ON 6/11 AND 6/14 RESPECTIVELY, SO IT WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF
LEFT FIELD IF WE DO REACH THAT MARK THIS AFTERNOON. THE SILVER
LINING IN THIS THAT THE NBM IS NOT CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL GET THERE,
GIVING ONLY ABOUT AT 10-15% CHANCE FOR BOTH PHOENIX AND EL CENTRO.
TEMPERATURES BEYOND TOMORROW WILL FOLLOW A SLIGHT DOWNTREND, FALLING
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE (WHICH IS AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR
OUR THREE MAIN CLIMATE SITES) BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN A LINGERING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, AND AN EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A DAY-TO-DAY UPTREND IN REGIONAL WIND STRENGTH STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZINESS WILL BE MARGINAL TO START OFF AND PEAK
GUSTS WILL ONLY REACH UPWARDS OF 25 MPH AROUND THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, PUSHING CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER LOW
DIVING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SQUEEZE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, ADDING ANOTHER LAYER TO THE INTERPLAY MENTIONED
ABOVE. THIS WILL CREATE STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD BREEZINESS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS GUSTS APPROACH 25-30 MPH FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS AND PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COMMUNITIES NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER.
WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY HOVERING AROUND 5-10% THE NEXT
SEVERAL AFTERNOONS, ANY ENHANCED GUSTS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IT APPEARS THAT ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN
TERMS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GULF OF ALASKA
LOW. SOME FRICTION REMAINS, BUT TRENDS POINT TOWARDS A WEAKER
SOLUTION THAT WAS BEING FAVORED BY THE GEFS AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENS SHOW THIS CLOSED LOW
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND EXTENDING FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN
THE LENGTH OF THE PACIFIC COAST, SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
SOME INFLUENCE FROM THIS DISTURBANCE ON THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS INFLUENCE WILL MORE THAN CERTAINLY COME IN THE FORM OF
CONTINUED BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES WILL PROMOTE SOME SLIGHT COOLING, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF LOWER DESERT HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN TRIPLE DIGIT REGARDLESS. THIS
TROUGH WILL NOT PROVIDE ANYTHING IN TERMS OF MOISTURE FLUX, SO
WITH CONTINUED BREEZINESS FORECASTED, DAILY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
RISK IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND AT LEAST INTO NEXT MONDAY FOR PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT, COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO,
REGARDING THE PATTERN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CLUSTERS
HAVE HONED IN ON THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN, BUT WHERE THEY DIFFER IS HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE
MIGHT BE. SOME CLUSTERS EVEN SUGGEST CYCLONIC CURVATURE COLLOCATED
WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, PERHAPS
KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL AS TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS STILL SOME WIGGLE ROOM SO THINGS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE THING THAT DOES
APPEAR CERTAIN IS CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0520Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
AS OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM
CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE PHOENIX
METRO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SE AT
ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z-08Z. WINDS COULD GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A W-SW
SHIFT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ASIDE
FROM AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF CU/CB OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX ON THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS THE CHANCE FOR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
REACHING THE PHOENIX METRO WILL BE VERY LOW.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SE CALIFORNIA. WINDS AT KIPL
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK OUT OF THE SE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AT KBLH WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY
S-SW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER HAZARD IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
TENDENCIES WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE BREEZINESS. GUSTS PICK
UP FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF THE EASTERN DISTRICTS WITH
READINGS REACH UPWARDS OF 25-30 MPH. WITH DAILY MINRHS HOVERING
CLOSE TO 5-10% FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION, EVEN MARGINAL
BREEZES WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL OFFER VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF RELIEF AS MAXRHS RUN
ONLY BETWEEN 15-45% FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, PERHAPS EVEN LINGERING INTO
NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DAILY
OCCURRENCES OF ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
STARTING FRIDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...RW
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...RW
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