857
FXUS65 KPSR 052046
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
146 PM MST FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MODERATE HEATRISK WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEFORE RETREATING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
- DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN COMMUNITIES OF ARIZONA.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MID LEVEL WV IMAGERY AND RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW THE CUT OFF LOW
TO CONTINUING TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARDS INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND
IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE,
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE, CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, IS EXPECTED TO
DESCEND DOWN INTO THE NW PACIFIC BY EARLY SATURDAY, AND THEN
CONTINUE FURTHER INLAND TO ENCOMPASS THE NORTHWESTERN STATES WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED AXIS THROUGH CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES, TIGHTENING IN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, OVER THE WEEKEND. GUSTS
WILL BE STRONGEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE SPEEDS WILL BE
AROUND 30-35 MPH FOR PARTS OF SW AZ AND SE CA, WHILE ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION EXPECTED GUSTS AROUND 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION TO GUSTY CONDITIONS, MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE HOVERING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW 10% LEADING TO ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. DUE TO THIS THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
NOW BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING STARTING SATURDAY 9 AM MST
THROUGH 11 PM MST FOR YUMA AND LA PAZ COUNTIES TO INCLUDES THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 100S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
THESE TEMPERATURES, AND WILL DOWNGRADE TO MINOR HEATRISK STARTING
SUNDAY AS THE AFOMENTIONED TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE DESERT SW. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THIS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH ENOUGH TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT COOLING THE THE REGION, WITH H5 HEIGHTS LOWERING FROM
585-588 DAM ON SATURDAY TO 582-585 DAM ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES ONLY COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 100S, WHICH WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO 2F-3F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IT APPEARS THAT ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO FURTHER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEK. SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES,
REINFORCING TROUGHING ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. WHILE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS THIS FOLLOW-ON SYSTEM WILL
NOT PROVIDE ANY MOISTURE FLUX TO THE REGION, BUT WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
IS A CONTINUATION OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
SUBTLE MODEL DISCREPANCY REMAINS, MAINLY ABOUT STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THE DISTURBANCE, SO WIND FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT GUSTS DAILY AFTERNOON
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH STRETCH INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH WOULD ALSO CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE CYCLONIC
PATTERN WILL NOT DO MUCH TO BUDGE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, AS CURRENT NBM FORECASTS HAVE STEADY READINGS BETWEEN
98-105 FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER, MUCH LIKE THE WIND
FORECAST, MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGES, EITHER UP OR DOWN, MAY COME TO
FRUITION DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1825Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
ELEVATED WIND GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN
AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE OVERALL WIND
PATTERN WILL FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH WESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING OUT OF THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND THEN BACK WESTERLY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL PEAK AT 20-25 KTS. OTHERWISE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 10 KT. OTHER THAN SOME HIGH- BASED CU EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. AT KIPL, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE
WESTERLY SHIFT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. AT KBLH, WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 5-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KTS AT KBLH. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING
AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS NOW BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SW ARIZONA AND AREAS AROUND THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY
FUELS, RHS AROUND 10%, AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35 MPH WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS
20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON, RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF SATURDAY, DAILY BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FRONT HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. MINRHS WILL HOLD STEADY CLOSE
TO 10% ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ONLY OFFER
POOR TO MODEST RECOVERY, WITH MAXRHS NEAR 15-45%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ131-132.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ231.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RW
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH/LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/RW
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