174
FXUS65 KPSR 061113
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
413 AM MST SAT JUN 6 2026
UPDATE...UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A SLIGHT "COOLDOWN" THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FRONT HALF OF NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN
COMMUNITIES OF ARIZONA.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AFTER MULTIPLE DAYS OF A MESSY UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CONUS, CURRENT 500MB ANALYSIS REVEALS A RELATIVELY MORE
ORGANIZED LOOK TO FLOW ALOFT, BUT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STILL FINDS
ITSELF CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF MULTIPLE WEATHER REGIMES. LOW
PRESSURE FLANKS US TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST, WHILE FLAT
RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN
THESE DIFFERENT SECTORS HELPED SQUEEZE OUR REGIONAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT, ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED BREEZINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ELEVATED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH PEAK GUSTS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. THE
HIGHEST READINGS SHOULD BE FOCUSED FOR AREAS IN AND AROUND THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE OBSERVATIONS WILL REACH UPWARDS OF 30-35
MPH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WINDS, LOW RHS, AND VERY DRY FUELS, A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THOSE AREAS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COLORADO
RIVER, ALONG WITH THE REMAINDER YUMA AND LA PAZ COUNTIES. EVEN
THOUGH GUSTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ELSEWHERE, GUSTS WILL STILL RANGE
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH, WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NORTHERLY MOST
TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEFORE TURNING TO THE
NORTHEAST ONCE IT REACHES NEAR THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. PEAK GUSTS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS, BUT READINGS 25-30
MPH WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
AFTER SEEING THE REGIONAL HEIGHT FIELD A TAD ABOVE WHAT IS TYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE PACIFIC LOW WILL HELP ERODE AT THOSE
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO COOL, BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE
NORTH, PREVENTING ANY NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. TRIPLE DIGITS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (WHICH IS IS NOTHING ABNORMAL
FOR EARLY JUNE), WITH READINGS UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
HOTTEST SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS SHOULD HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE
BETWEEN 99-105F.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BASED ON WHAT THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW, IT LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS FOR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE JUST
ABOUT THE SAME WAS WHAT WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
HELPING TO KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATIVELY TIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
THE CONTINUATION OF BREEZY CONDITIONS, MAINLY FOR THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND HIGH TERRAIN COMMUNITIES ONCE AGAIN. DAILY PEAK
GUSTS MAY REACH UPWARDS OF 25-30 MPH THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAX LAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BUDGE MUCH EITHER, WITH THE NBM SHOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
BETWEEN 100-107 DEGREES DURING THE ENTIRETY OF NEXT WEEK. ANY SUBTLE
CHANGES IN THE POSITION OF THE FOLLOW-ON TROUGH MAY RESULT IN
FORECAST CHANGES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, MAINLY CONCERNING WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES AS DRY CONDITIONS APPEAR ALL BUT CERTAIN FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1110Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN AVIATION
WEATHER ISSUE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
OVERALL WIND PATTERN WILL FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES
WITH EASTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST BY
LATE THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KTS WILL BE COMMON BEFORE
SUBSIDING EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS MORNING BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD DECKS MOVE IN BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER ISSUES UNDER INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUD DECKS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AT KIPL,
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT MATERIALIZES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT KBLH, WINDS WILL GENERALLY
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 8-15 KTS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 20-25 KTS EXPECTED AT KBLH.
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF SW ARIZONA AND
AREAS AROUND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DRY FUELS, RHS AROUND 10%, AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35
MPH WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THESE
AREAS. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON, RESULTING IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. OUTSIDE
OF SATURDAY, DAILY BREEZY CONDITIONS, ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG AS
TODAY, CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FRONT HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MINRHS WILL HOLD STEADY CLOSE TO 10% ACROSS THE
REGION, WHILE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ONLY OFFER POOR TO MODEST
RECOVERY, WITH MAXRHS NEAR 15-45%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ131-132.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ231.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RW
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/RW
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