709
FXUS65 KPSR 070513
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1013 PM MST SAT JUN 6 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A SLIGHT "COOLDOWN" THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FRONT HALF OF NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN
COMMUNITIES OF ARIZONA.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CURRENT 500MB ANALYSIS AND GOES MID-LEVEL WV IMAGERY SHOW THE
FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW NOW
CENTERED OVER NW WASHINGTON AND THE CANADIAN BOARDER. DOWN HERE IN
THE DESERT SW, THE REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM IN THE NW, AND THE PREVIOUS CUT-OFF LOW WHICH
IN NOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARDS INTO THE PLAINS OUT OF NORTHERN
TEXAS. THIS HAS LEAD TO TIGHTENING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PEAK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 30- 35 MPH IN
YUMA, AND LA PAZ COUNTIES AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY,
WHILE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION CAN EXPECT GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25
MPH. ALONG WITH THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS, FUELS ARE VERY DRY WITH
MINIMUM RH'S HOVERING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW 10%. DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THERE FACTORS A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
YUMA, AND LA PAZ COUNTY, AND ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER UNTIL 11 PM
MST/PDT. WINDS WILL RELAX, SLIGHTLY, ON SUNDAY BUT WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EVEN ONCE THE
WARNING EXPIRES.
THE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC NW WILL HELP ERODE POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WON'T SEE A HUGE DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES AS THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL
"COOL" TO HOVER BETWEEN 100F-105F DEGREES STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BE 2F-3F
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE
HEATRISK.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BASED ON WHAT THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW, IT LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS FOR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE JUST
ABOUT THE SAME WAS WHAT WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
HELPING TO KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATIVELY TIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
THE CONTINUATION OF BREEZY CONDITIONS, MAINLY FOR THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND HIGH TERRAIN COMMUNITIES ONCE AGAIN. DAILY PEAK
GUSTS MAY REACH UPWARDS OF 25-30 MPH THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAX LAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BUDGE MUCH EITHER, WITH THE NBM SHOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
BETWEEN 100-107 DEGREES DURING THE ENTIRETY OF NEXT WEEK. ANY SUBTLE
CHANGES IN THE POSITION OF THE FOLLOW-ON TROUGH MAY RESULT IN
FORECAST CHANGES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, MAINLY CONCERNING WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES AS DRY CONDITIONS APPEAR ALL BUT CERTAIN FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0515Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON (GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND
20 KT). SCT TO AT TIMES BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER SCT HIGH CLOUDS. CURRENT NW WINDS AT KIPL WILL
GO SE TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE GOING SW TOMORROW EVENING. WIND
SPEEDS AT KIPL WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT
KBLH, WINDS WILL FAVOR THE S TO SSW THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL
WIND SPEEDS, AT KBLH, WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 7-15 KTS WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KTS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SW ARIZONA AND
AREAS AROUND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DRY FUELS, RHS AROUND 10%, AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35
MPH WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THESE
AREAS. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON, RESULTING IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. OUTSIDE
OF SATURDAY, DAILY BREEZY CONDITIONS, ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG AS
TODAY, CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FRONT HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MINRHS WILL HOLD STEADY CLOSE TO 10% ACROSS THE
REGION, WHILE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ONLY OFFER POOR TO MODEST
RECOVERY, WITH MAXRHS NEAR 15-45%, WITH THE WESTERN PORTIONS IN
THE HIGHER RANGE.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ131-132.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ231.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RW
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH/SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/RW
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