620
FXUS65 KPSR 072331
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
431 PM MST SUN JUN 7 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE READINGS GET INTO THE 110 DEGREE RANGE BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- DAILY LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FRONT HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND HIGHER
TERRAIN COMMUNITIES OF ARIZONA.
- DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE, ONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE OTHER CENTERED ALONG
THE BORDER OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS HAS
LEAD TO AFTERNOON BREEZY CONDITIONS HERE IN THE DESERT SW OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA, AND 25-30 MPH IN
SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. AS THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS WAINS WINDS WILL
RELAX EVER SO SLIGHTLY, BUT THE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL KEEP OUR REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATIVELY
TIGHT, RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALBEIT, NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON GUSTS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL BE IN THE 15-20 MPH
RANGE WHILE SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA CAN EXPECT GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25
MPH. EVEN THOUGH NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
OUR AREA, THE COMBINATION OF THESE WINDS, VERY FUELS, AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10%, ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND
INTO THE START OF THE WORKWEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BETWEEN
101F-105F, WITH VERY LOCALIZED AREAS JUST SHY OF THE CENTURY MARK.
FORECAST TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN KEEPING THE
NORTHERLY TROUGH FURTHER AND FURTHER NORTH, DUE TO THIS FORECAST
HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A DEGREE OR TWO FURTHER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODEL
CLUSTERS REGARDING PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH IF YOU ARE A FAN OF MORE NORMAL
HIGHS, IT IS NOT AN OUTLOOK YOU LOOK FORWARD TO SEEING. ANY
INFLUENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS TROUGHS WILL FINALLY EXIT THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGING SPREADING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL SIGNAL WARMING ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES WHICH IN TURN WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE. 110F READINGS WERE MENTIONED BRIEFLY ABOVE, AND WELL, WE
MIGHT BE TALKING ABOUT THOSE MORE DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AS
WARMING LEADS US CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THIS POINT. THE LATEST NBM
PUTS PHOENIX AND YUMA JUST SHY OF 110F BY FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO GO BEFORE WE GET THERE SO THINGS COULD
CERTAINLY CHANGE. IF PHOENIX WERE TO REACH 110F ON FRIDAY (6/12),
IT ACTUALLY WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY ABNORMAL AS THE AVERAGE FIRST
110F DAY IS 6/14. NONETHELESS, IT IS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN JUNE,
SO EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2330Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER CONTINUED PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN TO THAT OF THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT W/SW WINDS
WILL GO EASTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
CROSSWINDS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE THE W/SW SWITCH EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE UPPER
TEENS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER CONTINUED PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS AT KIPL WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE E-SE BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WESTERLY
COMPONENT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL THEN GO BACK TO SE'RLY
AROUND SUNRISE. AT KBLH, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
8-15 KTS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KTS EXPECTED AT
KBLH.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FRONT HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK THANKS TO CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW
AFTERNOON RH VALUES. PEAK GUSTS WILL RANGE CLOSE BETWEEN 20-30 MPH,
WITH THE TOP END OF THAT RANGE FOCUSED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
ARIZONA AND AREAS IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
DAILY MINRH VALUES WILL HOVER BETWEEN 5-10% WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERY
OFFERING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RELIEF AS MAX RHS PEAK BETWEEN 15-
45%. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL SEE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER DANGER, GUSTS
WILL SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY CRITICAL CONDITIONS, SO
NO FURTHER PRODUCTS ARE EXPECTED GOING FORWARD. WE BEGIN TO LOSE
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR DURING THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK, FURTHER
DIMINISHING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, LOW RHS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE OBSERVED, SO EVEN MARGINAL BREEZES, WHICH BECOME MORE COMMON
DURING THE SUMMER THANKS TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND GREATER MIXING
HEIGHTS, CAN CREATE LOCALIZED ELEVATED CONDITIONS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN/RW
LONG TERM...RW
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH/SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...RW
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