594
FXUS65 KPSR 081048
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
348 AM MST MON JUN 8 2026
UPDATE...UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING UP TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS READINGS APPROACH 110 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, RESULTING IN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- SEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN REMAINS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE IN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT OF THIS TROUGHING PATTERN,
ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
AND THUS ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY AS GUSTS PEAK AT 20-25 MPH, HIGHEST ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THE
ELEVATED GUSTS IN COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 10% AND THE VERY DRY FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN ENVELOPING THE WESTERN CONUS,
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS LOWER DESERT HIGHS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 100-105F.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL BE TRANSITIONING AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT EAST
NORTHEASTWARD, ALLOWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT, UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BE ON THE RISE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING TO NEAR 590DM BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO AN ABOVE
NORMAL CATEGORY, POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS MEANS THAT MANY OF THE LOWER DESERT COMMUNITIES WILL BE
APPROACHING 110 DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES, GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. THE LATEST EPS AND GEFS SHOW
PWATS INCREASING AS HIGH 1.0-1.2" ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AZ. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE AZ HIGH TERRAIN AND WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1045Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS, WITH PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KT AND SEVERAL
HOURS OF S'RLY CROSSWINDS AT KPHX AND KDVT. MAIN QUESTION MARK
DURING THE FORECAST WINDOW IS IF WE SEE THE USUAL NIGHTLY E SHIFT
AT KPHX EARLY TUESDAY, OR IF FLOW STAYS OUT OF THE W. BESIDES A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME DISTANT HIGH TERRAIN CU, SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS AT KIPL, WHILE KBLH SEES
A MORE CONSISTENT S'RLY COMPONENT THAT WILL BECOME BREEZY (20-25
KT GUSTS) DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN LATER IN THE PERIOD, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AS
ELEVATED BREEZINESS COMBINE WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES. AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS WILL PEAK AT 20-25 MPH, HIGHEST ACROSS THE AZ HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. MINRHS WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 10% WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. HEADING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, DECREASING THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT. HOWEVER, WITH MINRHS CONTINUING TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS, EVEN SOME MARGINAL BREEZINESS CAN
CREATE LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LOJERO
LONG TERM...LOJERO
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...LOJERO/RW
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