280
FXUS65 KPSR 091106
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
406 AM MST TUE JUN 9 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND
110 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS DURING THE WEEKEND.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER TODAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ARIZONA
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, MAINTAINING AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
THREAT.
- AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WILL
LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ARIZONA HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
EARLY MORNING OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGHING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED BREEZINESS
FOR TODAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE AZ HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX, WHERE PEAK AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE ELEVATED BREEZINESS COMBINED
WITH THE VERY LOW RHS AND DRY FUELS WILL MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER THREAT THROUGH TODAY. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RANGING BETWEEN
586-588DM, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN
102-106 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, OR ABOUT 2-3 ABOVE
NORMAL. AS THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT GRADUALLY BUILDS OVERHEAD, HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL INCREASE CLOSE TO 588DM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, RESULTING IN
FURTHER WARMING AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TOP
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 100S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER HEADING INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION, EXPANDS WESTWARD. WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 590DM, THE LATEST NBM IS
DEPICTING TEMPERATURES BREACHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER DESERT
COMMUNITIES. TEMPERATURES OF THESE MAGNITUDES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN A HIGH-END MODERATE TO LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS
THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION STARTING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS THE COMBINATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
LOCATED TO THE EAST AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW RIDING NORTHWARD
OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL INDUCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE LATEST
EPS AND GEFS MEAN SHOW PWATS PEAKING AT 1.1-1.4" ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN AZ AND 0.7-1.0" ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THUS,
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EACH DAY STARTING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE LOOKS TO DECREASE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1105Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW DIURNAL
TENDENCIES, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT WIND
DIRECTIONS AT KPHX EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF
THE WEST BY LATE MORNING, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER TEENS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. DAYTIME SE WINDS SWITCHING TO SW/W THIS
EVENING CAN BE ANTICIPATED AT KIPL. OCCASIONAL WESTERLY GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KIPL DURING THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL FAVOR S TO SW AT KBLH WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 20 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS. OUTSIDE THOSE PERIODS WITH
GUSTS, WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT, AOB 10 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS ELEVATED
BREEZINESS COMBINE WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES OF NEAR 10%. AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS WILL PEAK AT 20-25 MPH, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE AZ
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVEN THOUGH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY, WITH MINRHS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, EVEN
SOME MARGINAL BREEZINESS CAN CREATE LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MINRHS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO 15% TOWARDS THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LOJERO
LONG TERM...LOJERO
AVIATION...WHITTOCK
FIRE WEATHER...LOJERO
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