004
FXUS65 KPSR 100500
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 PM MST TUE JUN 9 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS DURING THE WEEKEND.
- AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WILL
LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ARIZONA HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS CONTINUED BROAD TROUGHING OVER
THE MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING ENCOMPASSES
THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FINDS
ITSELF UNDER THE CONFLUENCE OF THESE TWO WEATHER REGIMES, HELPING TO
INDUCE RELATIVELY ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT. THIS SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE
WILL HELP TO KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, THIS TIME FOCUSED OVER
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD HOVER
CLOSE TO 25 MPH, BUT SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER READINGS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WITH ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHTS ON THE RISE,
SIGNALING THE PRESENCE OF A WARMER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE COMPARED TO
DAYS PRIOR, WE CAN EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO BE A TICK OR TWO
HOTTER THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS RANGING GENERALLY BETWEEN 100-
106 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THE GRADUAL UPTREND IN HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OUT
THROUGH THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK. IN TURN, DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND, REACHING UPWARDS OF 102-108 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY, WITH SIMILAR OBSERVATIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER HEADING INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, FORECAST TO BE CENTERED
NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION, EXPANDS WESTWARD. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 590DM, THE LATEST NBM IS DEPICTING
TEMPERATURES BREACHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER DESERT COMMUNITIES.
TEMPERATURES OF THESE MAGNITUDES WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A HIGH-
END MODERATE TO LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION STARTING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS THE COMBINATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
LOCATED TO THE EAST AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW RIDING NORTHWARD OFF
THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL INDUCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE LATEST EPS AND
GEFS MEAN SHOW PWATS PEAKING AT 1.1-1.4" ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AZ
AND 0.7-1.0" ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THUS, ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGHER TERRAIN, AND
MAYBE SOME LOWER DESERT, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY
STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW
SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0500Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CONFIDENCE IS VERY GOOD THAT TRENDS IN WIND
DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS WILL FOLLOW A NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST. IN
THE PHOENIX METRO, THIS MEANS A DEFINITIVE EASTERLY SHIFT OVERNIGHT,
THEN A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE
TRANSITION BACK TO W/SW. IN SE CALIFORNIA, WINDS WILL REVERT TO A
S/SE DIRECTION OVERNIGHT, THEN BACK TO A W/SW COMPONENT AFTER SUNSET
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS ELEVATED
BREEZINESS COMBINE WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES OF NEAR 10%. AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS WILL PEAK AT 20-25 MPH, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE AZ HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. EVEN THOUGH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY,
WITH MINRHS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, EVEN SOME MARGINAL
BREEZINESS CAN CREATE LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MINRHS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO 15% TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...LOJERO
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...LOJERO
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