637
FXUS65 KPSR 101704
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1004 AM MST WED JUN 10 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH SOME LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES OVER
THE WEEKEND.
- AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LONGWAVE TROUGHING IN PLACE FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELDS ON THE RISE AS A RESULT OF THIS WEAK RIDGING PATTERN IN
PLACE, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS READINGS TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 100S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LONGWAVE TROUGH FINALLY EJECTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA, IT WILL ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR GULF COAST REGION, TO EXPAND
WESTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL CAUSE THE FLOW ALOFT TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH, ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
PWATS INCREASE ABOVE 1.0" ACROSS MUCH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AZ. AS
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ONGOING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A LOBE
OF VORTICITY, PROVIDING UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT, IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FRIDAY MORNING, WHERE NBM POPS
RANGE BETWEEN 15-25%. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE,
MOST OF THE SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HIGH-BASED AND THUS
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL REMAIN STEADY STATE, IN
THE MID TO UPPER 100S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL (200-250% OF
NORMAL), WITH PWATS HOVERING BETWEEN 1.0-1.4", DURING THE WEEKEND.
THE COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL FAVOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE AZ HIGH TERRAIN. THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH LARGE T/TD SPREADS AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL
FAVOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS VERSUS HEAVY RAINFALL,
AS IS TYPICAL WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN JUNE. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS FROM GUIDANCE OF SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS MATERIALIZING AND AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS
SATURDAY MORNING, LIKELY DUE TO ANOTHER LOBE OF UPPER-LEVEL
VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH. HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS ANOTHER
LONGWAVE TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE.
WITH UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAINING STAGNANT THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STEADY STATE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE UPPER 100S
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER DESERT COMMUNITIES, WITH SOME AREAS,
ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN DESERTS, TOUCHING 110 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1704Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN AN ABOVE NORMAL
CATEGORY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OVERALL
WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS. MINRHS WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TODAY AND INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TEENS ON
THURSDAY. MINRHS WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 15-20% RANGE
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
INCREASES. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO COME INCREASING
CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AZ HIGH
TERRAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY
LIGHTNING POTENTIALLY LEADING TO NATURAL FIRE STARTS BEING THE
MAIN HAZARDS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LOJERO
LONG TERM...LOJERO
AVIATION...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...LOJERO
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