462
FXUS65 KPSR 102115
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
215 PM MST WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH SOME LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS REACHING 110 DEGREES
BY THIS WEEKEND.
- AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LATEST MID-LVL WV IMAGERY AND 500 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
EXPAND OVER TX AND NM. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO
SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR ENHANCED MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THIS
WEEKEND. AT LEAST FOR THE NEAR TERM, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT AND
DRY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO EXPAND
WESTWARD AND 500 MB HGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA REMAIN AROUND 588-
590 DAM. THESE POSITIVE HGHT ANOMALIES WILL RESULT IN LOWER DESERT
HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 103-108 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON, OR BETWEEN
3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 500 MB HGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND THUS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES.
BY THE END OF THIS WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE POSITIONING OF BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL
CAUSE THE FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTH, DRAWING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE, PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 1.0"
ACROSS MUCH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AZ. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING
MOISTURE, A VORTMAX MOVING OUT OF N MX INTO AZ WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ON FRIDAY
MORNING. NBM POPS STILL RANGE FROM 15-20% ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE, MOST OF THE SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP WILL HIGH-BASED AND THUS RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY MINIMAL (UPWARDS OF 0.10" AT BEST).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL (200-250% OF
NORMAL), WITH PWATS HOVERING BETWEEN 1.0-1.4", DURING THE WEEKEND.
THE COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL FAVOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE AZ HIGH TERRAIN. THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH LARGE T/TD SPREADS AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL
FAVOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS VERSUS HEAVY RAINFALL,
AS IS TYPICAL WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN JUNE. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS FROM GUIDANCE OF SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS MATERIALIZING AND AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS
SATURDAY MORNING, LIKELY DUE TO ANOTHER LOBE OF UPPER-LEVEL
VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH. HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS ANOTHER
LONGWAVE TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE.
WITH UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAINING STAGNANT THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STEADY STATE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE UPPER 100S
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER DESERT COMMUNITIES, WITH SOME AREAS,
ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN DESERTS, TOUCHING 110 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1704Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES BY
THIS WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 5-15%. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL IMPROVE BEGINNING FRIDAY AND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LARGELY ABOVE 15% AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IMPROVING FROM
POOR TO FAIR. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO COME INCREASING
CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AZ HIGH
TERRAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO NATURAL FIRE STARTS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS.
THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN WILL REMAIN DIURNAL WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW
15 MPH AND LIMITED AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SALERNO
LONG TERM...LOJERO
AVIATION...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...SALERNO
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