530
FXUS65 KPSR 102310
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
410 PM MST WED JUN 10 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH SOME LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS REACHING 110 DEGREES BY THIS
WEEKEND.
- AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LATEST MID-LVL WV IMAGERY AND 500 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
EXPAND OVER TX AND NM. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO
SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR ENHANCED MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THIS
WEEKEND. AT LEAST FOR THE NEAR TERM, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT AND
DRY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO EXPAND
WESTWARD AND 500 MB HGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA REMAIN AROUND 588-
590 DAM. THESE POSITIVE HGHT ANOMALIES WILL RESULT IN LOWER DESERT
HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 103-108 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON, OR BETWEEN
3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 500 MB HGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND THUS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES.
BY THE END OF THIS WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE POSITIONING OF BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL
CAUSE THE FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTH, DRAWING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE, PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 1.0"
ACROSS MUCH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AZ. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING
MOISTURE, A VORTMAX MOVING OUT OF N MX INTO AZ WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ON FRIDAY
MORNING. NBM POPS STILL RANGE FROM 15-20% ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE, MOST OF THE SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP WILL HIGH-BASED AND THUS RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY MINIMAL (UPWARDS OF 0.10" AT BEST).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL (200-250% OF NORMAL),
WITH PWATS HOVERING BETWEEN 1.0-1.4", DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AZ HIGH TERRAIN. THE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH
LARGE T/TD SPREADS AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL FAVOR DRY LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS VERSUS HEAVY RAINFALL, AS IS TYPICAL WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN JUNE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM
GUIDANCE OF SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MATERIALIZING
AND AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS SATURDAY MORNING, LIKELY
DUE TO ANOTHER LOBE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH. HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE.
WITH UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAINING STAGNANT THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY
STATE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE UPPER 100S ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOWER DESERT COMMUNITIES, WITH SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE
WESTERN DESERTS, TOUCHING 110 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2310Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THIN CIRRUS DECKS. WIND SPEEDS AND TIMING OF
DIRECTIONAL SHIFTS WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST WITH
GUSTS 15-20KT LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES BY
THIS WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 5-15%. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL IMPROVE BEGINNING FRIDAY AND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LARGELY ABOVE 15% AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IMPROVING FROM
POOR TO FAIR. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO COME INCREASING
CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AZ HIGH
TERRAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO NATURAL FIRE STARTS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS.
THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN WILL REMAIN DIURNAL WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW
15 MPH AND LIMITED AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SALERNO
LONG TERM...LOJERO
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...SALERNO
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