284
FXUS65 KPSR 142121
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
221 PM MST SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AROUND 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE DAILY NORMALS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT RISK, WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF MAJOR HEAT RISK AT TIMES, THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
- BRIEF GUSTY WINDS FROM DISTANT OUTFLOWS AND LOW PROBABILITIES
FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF MARICOPA COUNTY
CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE COMPLEX UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE DESERT SW WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH STILL
PUSHING WESTWARDS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WITH H5 HEIGHTS BETWEEN 590-
592 DAM, WHICH PUTS THEM IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY.
RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WITH A CLOSED LOW THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW OVER CA AND THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO OUR SE ARE WORKING TOGETHER TO PROMOTE SW WINDS
ALOFT AND CONTINUING TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
ENSEMBLES KEEP PWATS BETWEEN 1.25-1.50" TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH THIS
MORNING'S 12Z SOUNDING BACKING UP THE MODELS WITH A PWAT VALUE OF
1.40". EVEN THOUGH MUCAPE THIS MORNING WAS ONLY NEAR 500 J/KG, VERY
LITTLE TO NO CIN WAS PRESENT SO THE NATURAL OROGRAPHIC LIFT OF THE
MOUNTAINS NEAR TABLE TOP WERE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED STORM
EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WERE ABLE TO SQUEEZE 0.01-0.08" OF
RAINFALL IN AREAS NEAR BUCKEYE.
THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY QUICKLY DISSIPATED BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY NOW
IN THE NORTHERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN AND SOME IN SOUTHEASTERN AZ. THE
STORMS TO OUR NORTH CAN CREATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO REACH BETWEEN 25-35MPH, WITH THE HREF
SHOWING A 50% CHANCE OF SEEING WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 35 MPH IN
NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. THE HRRR BUFR SOUNDING HAS
MUCAPES BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER TERRAIN CAN BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. DUE TO
THIS POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE BETWEEN 10-15% IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA, THEN EXTENDING DOWN INTO PINAL COUNTY BY ROUGHLY 7PM MST
TONIGHT. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF
STORMS DO POP ALONG THE BORDER OF SOUTHERN MARICOPA AND PINAL
COUNTIES.
FOR MONDAY HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS SMALL AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MORNING YET AGAIN. BY LATE AFTERNOON/
EVENING THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN OF GILA
COUNTY CAN EXPECT GREATER POP CHANCES, 15-30%, WHERE THE MAIN DRIVER
OF DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE OROGRAPHIC LIFT, AS ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS DON'T STRAY TOO FAR FROM WHAT WHAT OBSERVED TODAY. ONE
NOTABLE DIFFERENCE HOWEVER WILL BE IN THE DIRECTION OF FLOW ALOFT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR POTENTIAL
OUTFLOWS OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS TO DESCEND TOWARD THE LOWER
DESERTS. THIS CAN TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION, WHICH IS WHY CHANCES FOR
PHOENIX ARE BETTER FOR MONDAY AS WELL, BUT STILL REMAIN LOW (10-15%)
DUE THE HIGHLY DEPENDENT NATURE OF WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY 3F-6F DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING BETWEEN 105F-110F. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO STAY CONSISTENT IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, OR ABOUT
5F-8F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DUE TO THIS WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK REMAINS IN PLACE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL NOT COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS WINDOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF ARIZONA AND SOME HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGING
STRETCHING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA, GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THEREFORE LIMITING NEAR-FUTURE RAINFALL FOR
AT LEAST MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
AROUND 3-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. BEYOND
THAT, WE BEGIN TO FLIP THE SCRIPT AS AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF A SUB-
TROPICAL JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE WINDS REGIONALLY
AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET IMPARTS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DECREASE
HEIGHTS ALOFT, AND SUBSTANTIALLY SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT, ANTICIPATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ,
TEMPERATURES MODERATING CLOSER TO DAILY NORMALS, AND THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OVER AZ HIGH TERRAIN TO END.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1225Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG, ABRUPT NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS THIS EVENING AND LOW
CONFIDENCE ON VCSH/VCTS CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERNS UNDER FEW-SCT MID TO HIGH DECKS. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHTER
E/SE OR VRB WINDS THIS MORNING, WEST WINDS WILL ESTABLISH BETWEEN 14-
17Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND LIKELY BECOME GUSTY BY THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
AFFECT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED STORMS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
PHOENIX METRO BY EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT MOST IF
NOT ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE AN ABRUPT WIND SWITCH OUT OF THE NORTH AS
AN OUTFLOW OVERSPREADS THE METRO AREA BETWEEN 01-04Z, WITH GUSTS
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 25 KTS BRIEFLY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT KBLH WHILE
DIRECTIONS OSCILLATE BETWEEN SE AND SW/W AT KIPL.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION THE
NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS, MAINLY FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, THAT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING.
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS, WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY
BREEZINESS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH. ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME
BENEFIT AS MINRHS RANGE BETWEEN 15-20% FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SE CALIFORNIA WHERE READINGS WILL
BE CLOSER TO 10%. FOR THOSE AREAS WITH BETTER MOISTURE, MAXRHS
WILL OFFER AT LEAST SOME MODEST RELIEF AS READINGS RISE TO 30-50%
EACH NIGHT. THOSE DRIER SPOTS FURTHER WEST HOWEVER WILL ONLY SEE
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 25%. MOISTURE SCOURS OUT DURING THE BACK
HALF OFF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL DECREASE DRY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL, BUT DROP RHS CLOSER TO 10% DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...WHITTOCK/RW
AVIATION...WHITTOCK
FIRE WEATHER...RW
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