431
FXUS65 KPSR 161115
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
415 AM MST TUE JUN 16 2026
UPDATE
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT,
WIDESPREAD MODERATE, TO LOCALLY MAJOR, HEAT RISK.
- LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN VERY ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY, MAINLY AROUND ENHANCED TERRAIN
FEATURES IN SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
- AN EASTERN PACIFIC LOW WILL HELP TO DRY THE REGION OUT, LIMITING
FURTHER RAIN CHANCES, WHILE ALSO PROVIDING NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE BACK HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
EARLY MORNING RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW,
SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS, ALL WHILE AN EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGE TRIES TO NUDGE ITS WAY OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. CLOSER TO HOME, THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FINDS ITSELF UNDER
UNORGANIZED FLOW AS A SHRINKING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELEVATED MOISTURE,
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER PARTS OF
THE STATE THE LAST FEW DAYS, WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS, IT SEEMED AS IF RAINFALL POTENTIAL WOULD DIMINISH
NOTICEABLY, FOR AT LEAST OUR AREA, AFTER MONDAY, AND WHILE MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT ANTICIPATE SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
THERE ARE SOME VERY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON
LOCALIZED CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE KOFAS AND ALONG NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO I-10 IN RIVERSIDE COUNTY. THESE
POTENTIAL TERRAIN INFLUENCED CELLS WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT, SO ANYTHING THAT DOES COME TO FRUITION LIKELY WILL NOT LAST
LONG AND PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS, OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. DUE TO THE LIMITED SPATIAL EXPANSE,
UNFAVORABLE SETUP, AND DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE CAMS, MAX POPS FOR
THESE AREA IS ONLY AROUND 25%. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
CEASE AROUND SUNSET.
AS WE SLOWLY DRY OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK, IT WILL
BE BECOME HARDER AND HARDER TO SEE ANY RAINFALL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
OUR FORECAST AREA, THOUGH PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 175% OF NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THOUGH THE NBM DOES NOT SEEM CONFIDENT, WHICH IS
FAIR BECAUSE I AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT ABOUT FURTHER RAIN CHANCES
EITHER, CAMS DO SHOW MORE LOCALIZED ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NOW, POPS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10% AT THIS TIME, AND MOST
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
HIGH COUNTRY, BUT PERHAPS WE COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO IN OUR CWA.
THE HRRR ACTUALLY SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS PIMA AND
SOUTHERN PINAL COUNTIES, SO MAYBE AN APPROACHING OUTFLOW COULD SPARK
SOME ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE ANY CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY BE ANCHORED TO
TERRAIN FEATURES ONCE AGAIN. IF THIS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT
TOWARDS THIS SIGNAL, POPS MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED A BIT IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, IT WILL BASICALLY STATUS QUO FROM WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON
READINGS WILL BE AROUND 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
JUNE, WHICH EQUATES TO OBSERVATIONS RANGING FROM 105-113 FOR LOWER
DESERT AREAS. UNFORTUNATELY OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT OFFER MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RELIEF, ESPECIALLY AROUND POPULATION CENTERS, AS ELEVATED
MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND, WILL KEEP READINGS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. THIS MIX OF MILD OVERNIGHT, AND HOT
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE, TO EVEN
POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK. PROPER HEAT PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE USED IF
PLANS TAKE YOU OUTSIDE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL EVOLUTION DOES NOT REFLECT A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG WINDS, GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON SOME
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER AND IMPERIAL VALLEYS,
ALONG WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. THIS MAY BE
DUE IN PART TO A MINIMAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE STUBBORN LOW SITTING
OFF THE WEST COAST, BUT EVEN THAT WILL ONLY INCREASE FLOW ALOFT TO
NEAR 25 MPH. NONETHELESS, THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE WINDS
COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 25-35 MPH FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE,
WITH THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN MOST
LOCATIONS. PERHAPS THIS BREEZINESS IS MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN RATHER
THAN SYNOPTICALLY INFLUENCED, BUT WE DO NOT TYPICALLY SEE SUCH
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTS TO THIS MAGNITUDE
AT THE SURFACE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS GENERALLY UNEXCITING, AT LEAST FOR
OUR AREA, AS RAIN CHANCES FALL TO NEAR ZERO ONCE CONSIDERABLE DRYING
TAKES PLACE. THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT OVER MOISTURE TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY, BUT
THAT LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY REMAINING PRECIP POTENTIAL STATEWIDE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS DROP IN REGIONAL
MOISTURE WILL BE THANKS TO THE MIGRATION OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN, IMPARTING DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPON
THE REGION. WE MAY LOSE THE MOISTURE, BUT THERE IS SOME GOOD NEWS.
THIS WAVE WILL ERODE AT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WHICH WILL AID IN
A DOWNTREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS FALLING TOWARD SEASONAL
LEVELS. NOW, THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE GET A BREAK FROM THE TRIPLE
DIGITS, BUT AT LEAST DAILY FORECASTED HIGHS FALL CLOSER TO 100-108.
NOT A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF RELIEF, BUT ENOUGH TO TAMP HEATRISK DOWN TO
THE LOWER END OF THE MODERATE CATEGORY. HEAT PRECAUTIONS WILL STILL
NEED TO REMAIN IN PLACE REGARDLESS. LOWER MOISTURE WITH THOSE COOLER
TEMPS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME MORE COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO
MONITORED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE WINDS REGIONWIDE. EXACT STRENGTH OF GUSTS
IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT WITH VERY DRY AIR EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE, IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO INCREASE FIRE DANGER.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1115Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
UNDER A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS, AND PARTICULARLY THE EXPANSE AND DURATION OF
EAST WINDS THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH BETTER THAT EITHER A
LIGHT EAST COMPONENT OR VARIABLE DIRECTION WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WESTERLY BY LATE MORNING. A FEW GUSTS ~20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT IN HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD BE LESS
PREVALENT THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH VERY LOW CHANCES OF
ACTIVITY OR OUTFLOWS DESCENDING INTO LOWER DESERTS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW BUILDING CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER TERRAIN
FEATURES, CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACT TO A TERMINAL LOCATION IS VERY
REMOTE. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW WINDS COULD CONCEIVABLY CAUSE ABRUPT WIND
SHIFTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, BUT VERY LOW ODDS PRECLUDE ANY
MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. OUTSIDE OF THIS POSSIBILITY, WINDS
SHOULD OSCILLATE BETWEEN SE AND SW WITH SOME MODEST LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTINESS.
FIRE WEATHER
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FOREAST, MAINLY FOR AREAS AROUND ENHANCED TERRAIN FEATURES OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, BUT RAINFALL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY LOWER REGIONWIDE COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS. ANY POTENTIAL CELLS THAT DO POP WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LITTLE
RAINFALL, SO DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, BUT MORE VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH DAILY BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND, MAINLY FOR THE LOWER
COLORADO AND IMPERIAL VALLEYS, ALONG WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
ARIZONA. MINRHS WILL FALL FROM 10-15% TOWARD 5-10% AS WINDS
INCREASE, COMBINING TO GENERATE DAILY INSTANCE OF WIDESPREAD ELEVATED,
TO LOCALLY NEAR CRITICAL, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MAXRHS WILL
OFFER LESS AND LESS RELIEF OVER IN THE COMING DAYS AS VALUES FALL
FROM 30-50% TOWARD 15-35%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...RW
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...RW
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