826
FXUS65 KPSR 162043
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
143 PM MST TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT,
WIDESPREAD MODERATE, TO LOCALLY MAJOR, HEATRISK.
- LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN VERY ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY, MAINLY AROUND ENHANCED TERRAIN
FEATURES IN SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
- AN EASTERN PACIFIC LOW WILL HELP DRY THE REGION OUT, LIMITING
FURTHER RAIN CHANCES, WHILE ALSO PROVIDING NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LATEST MID-LVL WV IMAGERY AND 500 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE BAJA DEL NORTE WHILE A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE UPPER-LVL FLOW IS VERY
WEAK AND CHAOTIC OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY, BUT THERE IS JUST
ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE IN PLACE TO HELP
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN FEATURES
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN AZ. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE OVER THE KOFA AND CHOCOLATE MOUNTAINS. DUE TO
THE WEAK UPPER LVL FLOW, ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH
AT ALL AND SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED GENERALLY TO ANY TERRAIN FEATURES.
THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
I-10 AND I-8 CORRIDORS IN WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF RIDGING AND POSITIVE HGHT ANOMALIES, TEMPERATURES
WILL SOAR INTO THE 105-111 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AND RIVER VALLEYS APPROACHING 112-113
DEGREES. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE AND WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK.
THEREFORE, PROPER HEAT PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE USED IF WORKING
OUTSIDE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS INLAND AND WILL RESULT
IN DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM W TO E. ALTHOUGH PWATS
WILL FALL BELOW AN INCH ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS, THEY WILL
STILL BE AROUND 150-175% OF NORMAL ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS, ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE TYPICAL TERRAIN
FEATURES SURROUNDING THE LOWER DESERTS. STEERING FLOW WILL BE MORE
OUT OF THE S-SW ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP CONVECTION FROM
MOVING TOWARD THE PHOENIX METRO, HOWEVER RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM DECAYING CONVECTION COULD STILL REACH N PINAL OR S
GILA COUNTIES. ANOTHER RESULT OF THE UPPER-LV LOW MOVING INTO SE
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AN UPTICK IN BREEZINESS
WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 25-35 MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. STRONGER WINDS IN THE 850-700 MB LEVEL WILL ALSO
RESULT IN LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH AT MOUNTAIN PEAK LEVEL,
ESPECIALLY IN SW IMPERIAL COUNTY. 500 MB HGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS WILL STILL REACH UPWARDS OF 105-111 DEGREES RESULTING IN
AT LEAST ONE MORE AFTERNOON WITH A LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS GENERALLY UNEXCITING, AT LEAST FOR
OUR AREA, AS RAIN CHANCES FALL TO NEAR ZERO ONCE CONSIDERABLE DRYING
TAKES PLACE. THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT OVER MOISTURE TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY, BUT
THAT LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY REMAINING PRECIP POTENTIAL STATEWIDE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS DROP IN REGIONAL
MOISTURE WILL BE THANKS TO THE MIGRATION OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN, IMPARTING DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPON
THE REGION. WE MAY LOSE THE MOISTURE, BUT THERE IS SOME GOOD NEWS.
THIS WAVE WILL ERODE AT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WHICH WILL AID IN
A DOWNTREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS FALLING TOWARD SEASONAL
LEVELS. NOW, THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE GET A BREAK FROM THE TRIPLE
DIGITS, BUT AT LEAST DAILY FORECASTED HIGHS FALL CLOSER TO 100-108.
NOT A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF RELIEF, BUT ENOUGH TO TAMP HEATRISK DOWN TO
THE LOWER END OF THE MODERATE CATEGORY. HEAT PRECAUTIONS WILL STILL
NEED TO REMAIN IN PLACE REGARDLESS. LOWER MOISTURE WITH THOSE COOLER
TEMPS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME MORE COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO
MONITORED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE WINDS REGIONWIDE. EXACT STRENGTH OF GUSTS
IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT WITH VERY DRY AIR EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE, IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO INCREASE FIRE DANGER.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1728Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST
THIS MORNING OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS NEAR 15-20 KTS. LATER IN
THE EVENING THE GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SUBSIDE, HOWEVER,
ELEVATED WIND SPEED WILL LINGER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
TS DEVELOPMENT IN HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD BE LESS PREVALENT THAN THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH VERY LOW CHANCES OF ACTIVITY OR OUTFLOWS
DESCENDING INTO LOWER DESERTS. FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, EXPECTING TO CLEAR BY
TOMORROW MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
ONLY A FEW BUILDING CU EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER TERRAIN
FEATURES, CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACT TO A TERMINAL LOCATION IS VERY
LIMITED. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW WINDS COULD CONCEIVABLY CAUSE ABRUPT
WIND SHIFTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, BUT ODDS REMAIN LOW AT THIS
TIME TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF PACKAGE. OUTSIDE OF THIS
POSSIBILITY, WINDS SHOULD OSCILLATE BETWEEN SE AND SW WITH SOME
MODEST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTINESS, WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-15
KTS LIKELY.
FIRE WEATHER
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FOREAST MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN FEATURES OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TODAY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ON WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER CHANCES OF ANY WETTING RAINFALL REMAIN LOW. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE DRY LIGHTNING AND
STRONG, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, WINDS WILL
FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS WILL WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR THE LOWER COLORADO AND
IMPERIAL VALLEYS, ALONG WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ARIZONA. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ALONG WITH
INCREASING WINDS, MINRHS WILL FALL FROM 10-15% TOWARD 5-10% BY
MID- WEEK, GENERATING DAILY WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO LOCALLY NEAR
CRITICAL, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MAXRHS WILL OFFER LESS AND LESS
RELIEF OVER IN THE COMING DAYS AS VALUES FALL FROM 30-50% TOWARD
15-35%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SALERNO
LONG TERM...RW
AVIATION...RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...RW/SALERNO
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