752
FXUS65 KPSR 200953
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
253 AM MST SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY
UNDER CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
- STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK PUSHING DAYTIME HIGHS TO AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
- MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED MAJOR HEAT
RISK DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A BROAD TROUGH
SLOWING PROGRESSING ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN. VERY
DRY AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE REGION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, WHILE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS HAVE ALSO LOWERED DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST. WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL OVERALL BE TRANQUIL, BUT SEASONABLY
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FORECAST HIGHS TODAY AND
SUNDAY WILL FALL WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE (103-107 DEGREES), WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY DIPPING INTO 70S. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BY MONDAY, THE BROAD TROUGH SITUATED TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO
EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWED BY THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO STARTING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.
MONDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY WITH HEIGHTS RISING TO
592-594DM AS THE HIGH CENTER NEARS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND OUR
FLOW ALSO SHIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTH. FORECAST HIGHS RISE MORE INTO
A 105-109 DEGREE RANGE MONDAY WHILE THE FIRST GULF MOISTURE SURGE
PUSHES SURFACE DEW POINTS OUT OF THE 20S.
GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING MORE INTO A 594-596DM RANGE BY WEDNESDAY. THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL HELP TO BRING ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE
SURGES INTO MIDWEEK, LIKELY RAISING SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT FROM WHAT MODELS SHOWED 24 HOURS AGO
AND NOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN INTRODUCTION OF LOW-END POP CHANCES
ONLY WITHIN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THE NBM DOES NOT REALLY DEPICT
THESE CHANCES, BUT IF THE MOISTURE FORECAST HOLDS WE MAY INTRODUCE
SOME ISOLATED 10-15% POPS FOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY.
THE MOISTURE MAY END UP BEING ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION, BUT WITH THE
RIDGE BASICALLY BEING RIGHT OVERHEAD THE SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT CONVECTION A GOOD AMOUNT. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE MOISTURE
ONLY LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY OR AT THE LATEST
THURSDAY AS DRIER WESTERLY FLOW IS SUGGESTED AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS INTO OUR REGION. NBM
FORECAST HIGHS REACH NEAR 110 DEGREES TUESDAY LEADING TO A
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK BEFORE LIKELY PEAKING CLOSER TO 115
DEGREES ON THURSDAY. LOCALIZED AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK BEGIN TO
SHOW UP ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS REACH 110-113 DEGREES, BUT MORE SO
ON THURSDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS BETWEEN 112-115 DEGREES.
FORTUNATELY, GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING MORE
INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO LOWER STARTING
FRIDAY, BUT THE 110 DEGREE DAYS MAY STILL HOLD ON INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0520Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN WILL
FAVOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT KIPL, WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
WEATHER ISSUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PREVAIL AT KIPL WHILE WINDS WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT KBLH. SOME GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE WILL LINGER AT KIPL THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS MATERIALIZING
ONCE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. MINRHS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS EACH DAY, WHILE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR,
RANGING BETWEEN 15-35%. SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING UPSLOPE
BREEZINESS WILL BE COMMON, BUT GUSTS WILL MOSTLY STAY BELOW 20
MPH. THE VERY LOW RHS AND LIGHT BREEZES SHOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK, MOISTURE WILL IMPROVE RAISING MINRHS TO BETWEEN 10-15% BY
WEDNESDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.
DAYTIME BREEZINESS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE WITH MORE GUSTS REACHING
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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