462
FXUS65 KPSR 231715
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1015 AM MST TUE JUN 23 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOTTER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE
HEAT RISK AND LOCALIZED MAJOR HEAT RISK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS
BETWEEN 107 AND 114 DEGREES.
- INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCES DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK.
- DRIER CONDITIONS AND INCREASING WINDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO HIGH FIRE DANGER.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR AND SPC RAP ANALYSIS REVEAL AN ELONGATED
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EL PASO AND NORTHERN MEXICO
AREA. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NW
THAT WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY AROUND 596 DM AND WILL
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 597-598 DM BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
BEFORE BEGINNING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. AS THIS HIGH STRENGTHENS
TODAY IT WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND BECOME CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST AZ, SOUTHERN NM, EASTERN TX, AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION, WITH H5 HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 594-598 DM OVER OUR CWA. ON WEDNESDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL START TO PUSH ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN THE HIGH OVER OUR REGION. HOWEVER, H5 HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 594 DM INTO THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY THE TROUGH WILL PUSH
FURTHER INLAND WITH THE HIGH WEAKENING EVEN FURTHER (DOWN TO 590-592
DM) AND PROPAGATING SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK, PEAKING DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. EVEN
THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THERE
WILL BE A DELAYED REACTION SEEN IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WHICH
IS WHY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECASTED TO BE
IN THE 108-114 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE 100-
109 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS (THE SAN
CARLOS AREA COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 110-112 DEGREES
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY). ADDITIONALLY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE RISE WITH THE WARMEST MORNINGS FORECASTED TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 80S AND UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE
HEATRISK AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK. DUE TO THIS EXTREME
HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SAN CARLOS
AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THE PHOENIX METRO, YUMA AREA, LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY, SW IMPERIAL COUNTY, AND THE IMPERIAL VALLEY FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH THE HIGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF OUR AREA, THE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THAT COULD ALLOW US TO FALL SHORT OF REACHING
OUR FORECASTED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER OVER NIGHT WOULD LEAD TO HIGHER MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY, MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE SMART HEAT SAFETY BY
LIMITING YOUR TIME OUTSIDE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS, AND
DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER AND ELECTROLYTES.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE
HIGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. MODELS SHOW
PWATS GOING FROM 0.5-1.0" CURRENTLY TO 1.2-1.5" BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. HIRES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
POPS (10-30%) FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL RIVERSIDE COUNTY AND JOSHUA TREE
NATIONAL PARK. THE INCREASED MOISTURE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF AZ, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PUSH FURTHER INTO OUR REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH FEATURE WILL LEAD TO LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
AS A RESULT COOLING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE LEVELING OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE
STILL FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THEN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY (2-4 DEGREES) BELOW
NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE
IN UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN
THE 90S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING AND ARE FORECASTED TO FALL INTO THE 70S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. AS A RESULT OF THESE DECREASING TEMPERATURES, HEATRISK WILL
ALSO BE DECREASING ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED TO FALL BELOW NORMAL, HEATRISK WILL FALL INTO THE MINOR
CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING
IN MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS. THESE DRIER
CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING FIRE FIRE DANGER. THE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
(ESPECIALLY FRIDAY-SUNDAY) WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1715Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
PERIODS OF MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS AND POSSIBLY SOME VIRGA. CONFIDENCE
IS VERY GOOD THAT W/SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY MODEST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTINESS.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, THE NOCTURNAL SWITCH TO EAST SHOULD OCCUR
MUCH LATER THAN USUAL OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ONLY
PREVAIL BRIEFLY BEFORE REVERTING BACK TO W/SW.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA AND SHRA CREATING ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD
VIRGA DEVELOPING. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY A FEW SHRA AFFECTS WIND
DIRECTIONS, BUT OTHERWISE A S/SE DIRECTION WILL BE FAVORED DURING
THE DAY, THEN SWITCHING TO W/SW IN THE EVENING. SOME LOCAL GUSTS AT
KBLH MAY BE COMMON AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO VERY LOW HUMIDITY
AND AFTERNOON UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY BREEZINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY INTO A 10-15% RANGE STARTING TODAY DUE TO INCREASED
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES IS ALSO EXPECTED TO AROUND 25-40%. TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT
UP INTO AN ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH LOWER
DESERT HIGHS TOPPING 110 DEGREES AT LEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL OFFER LITTLE RELIEF AS THEY RISE INTO THE
80S FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK
LIKELY BY FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR (MINRHS OF 5-15%)
MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR AZZ530-532-533-537-540-542>544-546-548-550-551.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING THROUGH 8 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR AZZ560.
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR CAZ562-566-567-569.
SHORT TERM...BERISLAVICH
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH
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