902
FXUS65 KPSR 260851
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
151 AM MST FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND REACHING BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND.
- UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION STARTING THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
GOES MID-LEVEL WV IMAGERY AND RAP-40 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AS BROAD TROUGHING
OVER THE WESTERN COAST CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO
THE REGION'S SOUTH. THIS TROUGHING FEATURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
PROGRESS FURTHER WESTWARDS OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO EXTREME
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION,
WHERE ANOMALIES WILL BE NEAR 4 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. ABOVE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 104F-110F TODAY, COOLING 3F-4F
DEGREES BY SATURDAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEGATIVE
HEIGHTS, THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO TREND BELOW NORMAL BY
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 95F-103F, OR ROUGHLY 5F-7F DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.
THIS PATTERN SET UP WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
LEADING TO INCREASED W/SW WINDS STARTING FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS IN
THE SW CORNER OF IMPERIAL COUNTY WILL PICK UP STARTING THIS EVENING
WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. BY SATURDAY
EVENING ELEVATED WINDS WILL EXPAND INCLUDE THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. DUE TO THESE
SPEEDS WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THIS
CAN ALSO LEAD TO DIFFICULTIES TRAVELING IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLE, AND
LOCALIZED DENSE BLOWING DUST MAY BE COMMON. IN ADDITION, RED FLAG
WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE COMBINED WIND GUSTS, LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS, AND VERY DRY FUELS RECEPTIVE TO FIRE COULD RESULT IN EXTREME
FIRE BEHAVIOR AND UNCONTROLLED WILDFIRE GROWTH. EVEN IN AREAS NOT
COVERED BY THE WARNING, AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST DUE
TO MINIMUM RH VALUES HOVERING IN THE 5-15% RANGE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAINING IN PLACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. NBM GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE ENSEMBLES SHOWS THE
TROUGHING FEATURE BEGINNING TO BE DISPLACE BY THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
TRYING AGAIN TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SW. AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL, OR IN THE MID TO UPPER 100S. OTHERWISE, WHILE THE
WIND ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0520Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT. FAMILIAR
DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH WINDS LIKELY TAKING A
LITTLE LONGER THAN USUAL TO FULLY TURN OUT OF THE W/SW, CREATING
A FEW HOURS WINDOW OF S'RLY CROSS WINDS AT KPHX AND KDVT. SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATER IN THE FORECAST WINDOW.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN. GUSTS OUT OF THE W AND SSW/SW AT KIPL
AND KBLH RESPECTIVELY WILL REACH UPWARDS OF 25-30 KT, WITH KIPL
LIKELY SEEING A WINDOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHEN READINGS
COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 35 KT AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT THESE ENHANCED WINDS MAY RESULT IN REDUCED VIS DUE
TO BLDU. GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT SOME VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY FRIDAY MORNING AROUND KBLH, BUT ANY RADAR ECHOES THAT ARE
OBSERVED ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACTS.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DURING THE BACK HALF OF THE FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITY, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, AND AFTERNOON UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MINRHS TODAY
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS, BUT CLOSER TO
20% IN THE EAST. THESE VALUES WILL FALL CLOSER TO 5-15% STARTING
TODAY AND STAY IN THIS RANGE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO A 20-35 MPH RANGE AND LOCALLY HIGHER
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK ON SATURDAY
WITH GUSTS COMMONLY REACHING 25-40 MPH. THESE WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE VERY DRY FUELS TO CREATE A RISK
OF EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF THIS WEEKEND
REACHING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR AZZ131.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ530-533.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
AZZ133.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY
FOR CAZ231.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ564>567-
569-570.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...RYAN/18
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/KUHLMAN
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