088
FXUS65 KPSR 271136
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
436 AM MST SAT JUN 27 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CURRENT GOES MID-LEVEL WV IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE
WEST COAST WITH THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE COASTLINE BETWEEN
WASHINGTON STATE AND CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CAUSING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
TODAY AS THERE ARE ALSO MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND WILL WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH THE TROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND. PEAK GUST SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
IMPERIAL VALLEY, HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AREA AS WELL. DUE TO
THIS WIND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AREAS, AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF IMPERIAL COUNTY. EXPECT WINDS BETWEEN 25-
35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 55 IN THESE AREAS. THESE WINDS CAN MAKE
TRAVEL DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
DENSE BLOWING DUST. OTHERWISE, IN CONJUNCTION TO THE ELEVATED WINDS,
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN/ GILA COUNTY.
THAT BEING SAID A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
THIS LARGE, AND SEASONABLY STRONG TROUGHING FEATURE WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO BELOW NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN 588-591 DAM DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 582-587 DAM BY SUNDAY. RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES 5F-10F
BELOW NORMAL, QUITE THE TREAT FOR LATE JUNE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ONCE THE PACIFIC TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SW THROUGH
EARLY TO MID WEEK AT THE LATEST. THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 98F-103F OR AROUND 4F-7F BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURE BEGINNING
TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
BE DISPLACED BY THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING TO THE REGION'S SE,
RETURNING H5 HEIGHTS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL. BY THE NEXT WEEKEND
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL YET AGAIN BE IN THE 105F-110F RANGE.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1135Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. WINDS SHOULD
FOLLOW FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A SLOW
TURN TO SW'RLY WINDS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SO, A FEW HOURS OF
S'RLY CROSSWINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO GO BACK SE'RLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHER THAN A FEW DISTANT HIGH CLOUDS, SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OUTSIDE OF LIGHTER WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING, GUSTS 25-35 KT, WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
40 KT, WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLANTWISE AND
SURFACE VIS IMPACTS DUE TO WIND GENERATED BLDU APPEAR TO BE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. A TEMPO GROUP HAS
BEEN ADDED AT KBLH BETWEEN 23-03Z TO AT LEAST INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS. TIMING OF THIS TEMPO MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED, OR EVEN UPGRADED TO A PREVAILING LINE IF PERSISTENT SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE WIND,
KIPL IS NOT LIKELY TO SEE DUST IMPACTS, BUT A FEW OBS OF MVFR VIS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS, SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITY, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, AND AFTERNOON UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MINRHS TO STAY CLOSE TO 5-15%
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-35 MPH RANGE AND LOCALLY HIGHER OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK ON THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS COMMONLY REACHING 25-40 MPH. THESE WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE VERY DRY FUELS TO CREATE A RISK OF EXTREME
FIRE BEHAVIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THIS WEEKEND REACHING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS STARTING SUNDAY AND LASTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH NEXT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ131.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR AZZ530-533.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ133.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ231.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR CAZ564>567-569-570.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ562.
SHORT TERM.RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH/RW
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/KUHLMAN
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