526
FXUS65 KPSR 272005
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
105 PM MST SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRONOUNCED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PLUNGING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL FURTHER ADD TO THE DEPTH AND
MAGNITUDE OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. INTO ARIZONA, SEASONALLY RARE MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED
WITH THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UNUSUALLY INTENSE ZONAL JET
COMPONENT WILL YIELD A CONTINUATION OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL STABILIZE WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS ALLOWING
WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX. WHILE SPEEDS FALL BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BY THIS EVENING (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SW IMPERIAL
COUNTY), AFTERNOON GUSTS WILL BE STILL BE SUFFICIENT WHEN COMBINED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND EXTREMELY DRY, RECEPTIVE FUELS TO
SUPPORT HIGHLY ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HENCE,
THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN DISTRICTS SUNDAY,
WHILE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PERSISTS ELSEWHERE AND THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. OTHERWISE, WITH H5 HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW
582DM EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MARKEDLY DRIER AIR SURGING INTO THE
REGION, CONFIDENCE IS EXCELLENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER 5F-10F
BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY INCLUDING MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S,
AND LOWER ELEVATION AFTERNOON HIGHS BARELY ECLIPSING 100F.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ONCE THE PACIFIC TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SW THROUGH
EARLY TO MID WEEK AT THE LATEST. THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 98F-103F OR AROUND 4F-7F BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT, THE JUNE 30TH FORECAST FOR YUMA AND
EL CENTRO SUGGESTS HIGHS NOT EVEN REACHING 100F, WHICH HAS OCCURRED
ON ONLY A HANDFUL OF DAYS IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR THESE CITIES
ON THE LAST DAY OF JUNE. GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURE BEGINNING TO
CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO BE
DISPLACED BY THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING TO THE REGION'S SE,
RETURNING H5 HEIGHTS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL. BY THE NEXT WEEKEND
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL YET AGAIN BE IN THE 105F-110F RANGE.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1740Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING
AND WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS WILL PEAK AROUND
25 KTS. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BY 03-05Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS, REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A
LATER THAN USUAL, BRIEF SE SWITCH AROUND SUNRISE AT KPHX. WINDS ARE
THEN LIKELY TO SHIFT SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY AND DEVELOP GUSTS BY LATE MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SW OR W WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 KTS WILL BE COMMON, PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AT KBLH AND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT KIPL. TEMPORARY SURFACE VIS
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOFTED/BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER GUSTS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MVFR OR
LOWER VIS IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, POSSIBLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB FOR A PERIOD EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AT KBLH.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY,
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, AFTERNOON UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY BREEZY
CONDITIONS, AND VERY RECEPTIVE DRY FUELS. RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MINRHS TO STAY
CLOSE TO 5-15% FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-35 MPH RANGE AND LOCALLY HIGHER OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK ON THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS COMMONLY REACHING 25-40 MPH. THESE WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE VERY DRY FUELS TO CREATE A RISK OF EXTREME
FIRE BEHAVIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THIS WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS STARTING SUNDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ131.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ530-533.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ133.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ231.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ564>567-569-
570.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...RYAN/18
AVIATION...WHITTOCK
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/18
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page