494
FXUS65 KPSR 280607
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1107 PM MST SAT JUN 27 2026
UPDATE
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRONOUNCED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PLUNGING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL FURTHER ADD TO THE DEPTH AND
MAGNITUDE OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. INTO ARIZONA, SEASONALLY RARE MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED
WITH THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UNUSUALLY INTENSE ZONAL JET
COMPONENT WILL YIELD A CONTINUATION OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL STABILIZE WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS ALLOWING
WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX. WHILE SPEEDS FALL BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BY THIS EVENING (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SW IMPERIAL
COUNTY), AFTERNOON GUSTS WILL BE STILL BE SUFFICIENT WHEN COMBINED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND EXTREMELY DRY, RECEPTIVE FUELS TO
SUPPORT HIGHLY ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HENCE,
THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN DISTRICTS SUNDAY,
WHILE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PERSISTS ELSEWHERE AND THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. OTHERWISE, WITH H5 HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW
582DM EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MARKEDLY DRIER AIR SURGING INTO THE
REGION, CONFIDENCE IS EXCELLENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER 5F-10F
BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY INCLUDING MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S,
AND LOWER ELEVATION AFTERNOON HIGHS BARELY ECLIPSING 100F.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ONCE THE PACIFIC TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SW THROUGH
EARLY TO MID WEEK AT THE LATEST. THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 98F-103F OR AROUND 4F-7F BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT, THE JUNE 30TH FORECAST FOR YUMA AND
EL CENTRO SUGGESTS HIGHS NOT EVEN REACHING 100F, WHICH HAS OCCURRED
ON ONLY A HANDFUL OF DAYS IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR THESE CITIES
ON THE LAST DAY OF JUNE. GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURE BEGINNING TO
CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO BE
DISPLACED BY THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING TO THE REGION'S SE,
RETURNING H5 HEIGHTS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL. BY THE NEXT WEEKEND
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL YET AGAIN BE IN THE 105F-110F RANGE.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0607Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
CONDITIONS. GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z THIS
MORNING, LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING. MOSTLY DIURNAL TRENDS,
HOWEVER A SLIGHTLY EARLIER TRANSITION OUT OF THE WEST, AS EARLY AS
15Z AT KPHX AND PERIODS OF SOUTHERLY CROSS WINDS DURING THE
TRANSITION PERIOD. WITH ELEVATED WINDS REGIONWIDE, LOFTED DUST MAY
HAVE SOME MINOR SLANTWISE VISIBILITY IMPACTS, BUT NO SURFACE
REDUCTION ARE ANTICIPATED. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH:
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE RELAXED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
ENOUGH TO THE POINT WHERE KBLH MAY SEE A PERIOD OF VRB CONDITIONS,
BUT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD AND POTENTIALLY
EVEN PAST SUNRISE AT KIPL, THOUGH THEY SHOULD BECOME MORE
INTERMITTENT. THESE ENHANCED GUSTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE AREAS OF DUST THAT WOULD IMPACT SLANTWISE AND EVEN
SURFACE VIS AT TIMES. OTHER THAN THE DUST, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY,
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, AFTERNOON UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY BREEZY
CONDITIONS, AND VERY RECEPTIVE DRY FUELS. RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MINRHS TO STAY
CLOSE TO 5-15% FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-35 MPH RANGE AND LOCALLY HIGHER OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK ON THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS COMMONLY REACHING 25-40 MPH. THESE WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE VERY DRY FUELS TO CREATE A RISK OF EXTREME
FIRE BEHAVIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THIS WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS STARTING SUNDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ530-533.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ133.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ564>567-569-
570.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...RYAN/18
AVIATION...RW/RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/18
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