347
FXUS65 KPSR 281705
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1005 AM MST SUN JUN 28 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY
RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
- MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOW THAT A PACIFIC TROUGH HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER WESTERN
CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TOMORROW. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IT WILL LEAD TO DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT ALONG WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PAIR WITH A STRONG JET LEADING TO STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE TROUGH IS BECOMING MORE STABILIZED AND THUS THE
HEIGHT FALLS AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ISN'T AS DRAMATIC AS
IT WAS YESTERDAY SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH
TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DESPITE
WINDS NOT FORECASTED TO BE AS STRONG TODAY A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH 11PM PDT TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SW CORNER OF
IMPERIAL COUNTRY, WHERE IT IS TYPICALLY WINDIER. WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
MAYBE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. REGARDLESS, THESE WINDY CONDITIONS PAIRED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY (RH AS LOW AS 8-15% THIS AFTERNOON), AND VERY
DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND THE TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS. THE
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM
MST THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN
ON MONDAY, WHICH IS WHY THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS NOT BEEN EXTENDED
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN DISTRICTS AND
RAPID SPREAD OR GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANY NEW OR EXISTING
FIRES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURE WISE, WITH
LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT CONFIDENCE IS EXCELLENT THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THEIR COOLING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS FORECASTED TO NOT REACH 100 DEGREES. MORNING LOWS ARE EVEN
FORECASTED TO FALL INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BY TUESDAY THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER WESTERN CONUS
ALLOWING FOR NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR
REGION. THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES (BOTH MORNING LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGH)
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THIS UPCOMING
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY STARTING TO PUSH BACK INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FROM THE EAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH
LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD. AS A RESULT, H5 HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
START TO INCREASE LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THE LATEST NBM
HAS TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND WITH H5 HEIGHTS ALOFT
CONTINUING TO RISE. BY NEXT WEEKEND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO GO BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BE IN THE 105-110 DEGREE
RANGE.
ADDITIONALLY WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDING BACK IN
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL TAPER OFF WITH ONLY SOME MINOR AFTERNOON BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF PHOENIX. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE AND
THUS THERE WILL BE NO RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1705Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. WHILE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD OF
160V230 WIND DIRECTIONS, CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT W/SW WINDS WITH
GUSTS 20-25KT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DECOUPLING. THE SWITCH BACK TO EAST SHOULD OCCUR SLIGHTLY EARLIER
THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. GUSTY WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME LOFTED DUST
THIS EVENING IMPACTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES, HOWEVER ODDS OF
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE VERY LOW.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT WEST GUSTS 20-
30KT WILL PERSIST AT KIPL BEFORE RELAXING OVERNIGHT, WHILE SW GUSTS
20-25KT DEVELOP AT KBLH THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH WEAKER WINDS WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AROUND
SUNRISE. THE ENHANCED GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN SOME LOFTED
DUST WITH MINOR IMPACTS TO SLANTWISE VISIBILITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, AFTERNOON
UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND VERY RECEPTIVE DRY FUELS.
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN DISTRICTS. MINRHS WILL BE IN THE 5-15% RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY
AND THEN DROP TO 5-10% BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR AND IN THE 25-50% RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DROPPING TO A 15-30% RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 25-
35 MPH, LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE, ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THESE WINDY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH
THE VERY DRY FUELS TO CREATE A RISK OF EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY START TO DIMINISH DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND WILL STAY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ133.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...BERISLAVICH
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH
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