972
FXUS65 KPSR 291701
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST MON JUN 29 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS PAIRED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS
AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE WORK WEEK.
- MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER WESTERN CONUS, AS
SEEN ON UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. MULTIPLE PIECES OF VORTICITY CAN BE SEEN WITHIN THIS
PACIFIC TROUGH, WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN MONTANA, WITH
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING AROUND THIS CLOSED LOW.
ADDITIONALLY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CA
EARLY THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL COME INTO PLAY FOR OUR AREA A LITTLE
BIT LATER THIS WEEK. WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH NOW ESTABLISHED OVER
OUR AREA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED WIND SPEEDS
WILL STABILIZE MORE SO TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FAR SW CORNER OF IMPERIAL COUNTY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45-55 MPH, WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFOR, A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 5PM PDT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM PDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SW CORNER OF IMPERIAL COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY,
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE, ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW. THESE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS PAIRED WITH THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS (MINRH OF 6-
15%) AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY CAUSING EASIER FIRE STARTS AND THE POTENTIAL
OF UNCONTROLLABLE SPREAD OF NEW OR EXISTING FIRES.
WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH ESTABLISHED OVER OUR REGION H5 HEIGHTS ARE
ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND ARE IN BETWEEN THE 3RD
AND 10TH PERCENTILES OF CLIMATOLOGY. H5 HEIGHTS EARLY THIS MORNING
ARE AROUND 584 DM AND ARE FORECASTED TO LOWER EVEN MORE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN CA PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA, H5 HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 579-583 DM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
AND IN FACT DROP EVEN MORE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 95-103 DEGREE RANGE TODAY
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE 90-100 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE "COOLEST"
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECASTED
TO BE IN THE 90-101 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE
88-98 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THESE FORECASTED
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 4-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. MORNING LOWS WILL ALSO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AND ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE MORNING LOWS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 7 TO 13
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN STARTING TO SHIFT BY THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
THEY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY STARTING TO PUSH BACK INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FROM THE EAST AND THE PACIFIC TROUGH LIFTING
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD. AS A RESULT, H5 HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL START TO
INCREASE LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THE LATEST NBM HAS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO OUR
REGION NEXT WEEKEND WITH H5 HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUING TO RISE. THE
NBM HAS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES GOING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING BACK INTO OUR REGION MORE
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
AFTERNOON BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE AND THUS
THERE WILL BE NO RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1700Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY CROSS RUNWAY WINDS EARLY AFTERNOON WILL VEER TO W/SW WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20KT THROUGH MID EVENING. BEHAVIOR OF WIND SHIFT
TIMING AND SPEEDS WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PAST 24 HOURS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PREFERRED AT KBLH WHILE A WEST
COMPONENT MORE COMMON AT KIPL. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTS 20-25KT WILL AFFECT THE REGION, AND MUCH
WEAKER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITY, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS/EARLY EVENINGS, AND VERY RECEPTIVE DRY FUELS. AFTERNOON
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 6-15% THROUGH TUESDAY WILL DROP TO A 5-
10% RANGE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. POOR TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
BETWEEN 25-45% THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DECREASE INTO A 15-30%
RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH AND LOCALLY STRONGER
ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THESE WINDY
AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE VERY DRY FUELS TO
CREATE A RISK OF EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY START
TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK, WITH LOWER
DESERT HIGHS AROUND 100F THROUGH MIDWEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...BERISLAVICH
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...WHITTOCK/BERISLAVICH
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