235
FXUS65 KPSR 300900
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
200 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING BREEZY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND VERY
DRY FUELS THROUGH TODAY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER,
PRIMARILY FOR THE ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MID LEVEL WV IMAGERY AND RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL POSITIONED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE EXTENT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS OVER OUR
REGION TODAY IS BETWEEN THE 3RD AND 10TH PERCENTILES OF
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH H5 HEIGHTS TODAY EXPECTED
TO BE BETWEEN 580-585 DAM. IN RESPONSE TO THIS UNSEASONABLY STRONG
LOW, TEMPERATURES HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT, WITH PHOENIX SKY HARBOR
RECORDING A HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY OF 103F, OR 4 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE LAST TIME PHOENIX SKY HARBOR RECORDED 103F OR LESS ON
JUNE 29TH, WAS IN 2020 AT 101F. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
TO LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE BEING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. THAT BEING
SAID, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 2F-8F BELOW NORMAL, WITH
MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS STAYING IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
IN ADDITION TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS, THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. THIS IS DUE TO THE
SYSTEM BEING VERY DRY, BRINGING NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
DESERT SW. PWATS WILL BE NEAR 0.2"-0.4" OR NEAR 30- 50% OF NORMAL.
THIS HAS LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AZ
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S (5F-7F BELOW NORMAL), WHILE THE
WESTERN LOWER DESERTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S LOWER 70S (10F-12F
BELOW NORMAL).
AFTERNOON BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TODAY. WHILE GUSTS HAVE RELAXED
COMPARED WHAT AREAS RECEIVED THIS PAST WEEKEND, GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30
MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THE NORTHERN/EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN AND IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF IMPERIAL COUNTY. ELSEWHERE GUSTS BETWEEN
10-15 MPH WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS.
BETWEEN LINGERING GUSTS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS, FIRE CONDITIONS
TODAY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL, PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN/EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN, BEFORE IMPROVING BY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ENSEMBLES MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE REGION'S NORTH AS A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD. AS THE HIGH BUILDS, H5 HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
START TO INCREASE LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THE LATEST NBM
REMAINS CONFIDENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY THEN GRADUALLY WARMING EACH DAY TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY SUNDAY. HIGHS BY SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 105F-110F
RANGE, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK RETURNING AS WELL. WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING, MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME MINOR AFTERNOON BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE AND THUS THERE WILL BE NO RAINFALL CHANCES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0500Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN WILL
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WESTERLY
SHIFT. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AT KIPL, WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE OUT OF THE WEST WHILE AT KBLH, WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED, STRONGEST AT
KIPL.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER, AND LOCALLY NEAR CRITICAL FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN DISTRICT, WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITY, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOONS/EARLY EVENINGS, AND VERY RECEPTIVE DRY FUELS.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE BETWEEN 7-15% TODAY THEN
DROPPING INTO THE 5-10% RANGE FOR THE EASTERN DISTRICTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AND AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY. POOR TO FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES BETWEEN 20-45% THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DECREASE
INTO A 15-30% RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
MORE NOTICEABLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING UPSLOPE AND UPVALLEY GUSTS TO 15-25 MPH
WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE WEEK, WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS AROUND 100F THROUGH
MIDWEEK, THEN GRADUALLY WARMING INTO A NEAR NORMAL RANGE THIS
WEEKEND.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN/BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/WHITTOCK/BERISLAVICH
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