094
FXUS65 KPSR 302344
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
444 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2026
UPDATE...UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL COMBINE WITH
LOW HUMIDITY AND VERY DRY FUELS TO RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER, PRIMARILY FOR THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THEN ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK, RESULTING
IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF MODERATE HEAT RISK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONFIDENCE REMAINS EXCELLENT THAT BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE
MAINTAINED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, ALBEIT
WITH NEGATIVE MIDLEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES GRADUALLY DETERIORATING AND
RETREATING TO THE NORTH. A QUICK-MOVING, DRY SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ALREADY EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
UTAH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ACTED MOSTLY TO REINFORCE THE
STRONGER SW'RLY FLOW ALOFT, THOUGH AS IT DEPARTS, MIDLEVEL FLOW HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO RELAX. AS A RESULT, AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS
ACROSS THE CWA WILL PEAK AT SLIGHTLY LOWER MAGNITUDES THAN WHAT WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY, FOLLOWED BY NOTABLY WEAKER GUSTS WEDNESDAY AND
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK (RETURNING TO MUCH MORE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATES, THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY COMPARED TO LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY CLIMATOLOGY.
FURTHER DRYING IS ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS DIPPING BELOW 0.4" TO AS
LOW AS 0.15" OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE, NEGATIVE
MIDLEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN H5 HEIGHTS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 580-584
DAM. HEIGHT RISES ARE THEN EXPECTED STARTING THURSDAY, INCREASING TO
AS MUCH AS 589-591 DAM LATE THURSDAY, CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
MEDIAN VALUES. AS A RESULT OF THESE CONDITIONS, EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS AROUND AT LEAST 5F BELOW DAILY NORMALS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, WITH GRADUAL
WARMING STARTING THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH AS 12F BELOW
NORMAL SEEM LIKELY FOR SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, WITH
EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS. THIS TRANSLATES TO WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 60S FOR MORE
RURAL VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OUT TOWARDS SW AZ AND SE CA, AND 70S IN
MORE URBAN AREAS AND THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BROAD WESTERN CONUS
TROUGHING WILL BE DISPLACED AS A SUBTROPICAL HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD CLOSER TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS, H5 HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL START TO INCREASE
LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THE LATEST NBM CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY INDEPENDENCE
DAY THEN ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY-MONDAY. DURING THIS WARMING
TREND, MODERATE HEATRISK WILL RETURN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE,
BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING, MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH ONLY TYPICAL, MODEST AFTERNOON BREEZINESS FOR EARLY
JULY EXPECTED.
THE PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO
SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT OUT OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. A FAMILIAR, GRADUAL DAY-
TO-DAY INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY TAKE PLACE DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF JULY; AT FIRST, SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN DEVELOP, THEN AS
CONDITIONS MOISTEN FURTHER, MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN AZ MOUNTAINS DEVELOPS THE NEXT DAY, AND AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS, CHANCES FOR STORMS MAY BE INTRODUCED TO THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ FOOTHILLS AND EVEN POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DESERTS. ONE
COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR THIS TYPICAL EVOLUTION WOULD BE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AN INVERTED TROUGH TO HASTEN THE IMPORT OF BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE AND SERVE AS A SYNOPTIC LIFTING MECHANISM MID-
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GFS DETERMINISTIC REVEALS THIS
POSSIBILITY, BUT SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THE SUITE OF
ENSEMBLES AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS,
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY OVER PROMINENT
TERRAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, SEEMS
LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2340Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE OVERALL WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AT KIPL, WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE OUT OF THE WEST WHILE AT KBLH, WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT VARIABILITY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KIPL EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED AND LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DUE TO STRONGER THAN USUAL
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS, PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY AND TONTO NF FOOTHILLS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RETURN TO
TERRAIN-DRIVEN TENDENCIES AND EXHIBIT TYPICAL AFTERNOON
UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY BREEZINESS WITH GUSTS MOSTLY 15-25 MPH LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 5-15% AREAWIDE, WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. POOR TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL DROP SOLIDLY INTO
A POOR CATEGORY (15-30% AREAWIDE) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN WINDS LATER THIS WEEK, SEASONABLY
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO VERY
DRY CONDITIONS, SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, VERY DRY AND
RECEPTIVE FUELS, AND THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY BREEZINESS EACH
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WHITTOCK
LONG TERM...WHITTOCK
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...WHITTOCK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page