175
FXUS65 KPSR 010854
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
154 AM MST WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN WILL
PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO WITH DAYTIME BREEZY AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
BUT WILL AT LEAST STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
- AS THE HEAT BUILDS INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF MODERATE HEAT RISK AND HIGHS
EVENTUALLY REACHING 110 DEGREES BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN
IN CHARGE OF OUR WEATHER FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS KEEPING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. DESPITE THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO
GRADUALLY FILL TODAY INTO THURSDAY, H5 HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN WITHIN
THE 10% PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S READINGS, BUT WITH THE WESTERN DESERTS
WARMING ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES. H5 HEIGHTS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE BACK
INTO A NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE BY FRIDAY. AS HIGHS
WARM BACK TO AROUND 105 DEGREES BY FRIDAY, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO WARM BACK INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE. THE WARMING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BECOME MORE APPARENT ONCE SOME HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING
FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH PWATS RUNNING 25-50% OF NORMALS AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS MOSTLY STAYING IN THE 20S AND 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BY THE WEEKEND, THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WITH THE
TROUGH ENERGY EJECTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE BROAD
TROUGHING SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST CANADA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. INTO MEXICO WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTWARD,
QUICKLY RAISING H5 HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER CHANGE WILL COME FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM WHICH
IS CURRENTLY AROUND 1000 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE ANY DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER, BUT
GUIDANCE FAVORS SOME OF ITS HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
WORKING INTO OUR REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THE TIMING AND THE POSITIONING OF THE
CLOUDS COULD STILL CHANGE SOMEWHAT, BUT AS OF NOW WE ARE LIKELY TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF HIGHER CLOUDS CENTERED ON SATURDAY. THESE
CLOUDS MAY HELP TO STEM THE BUILDING HEAT OVER THE REGION, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN SUNDAY. THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST HIGHS SHOW
READINGS BETWEEN 103-108 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND 106-110 DEGREES
SUNDAY, BOTH OF WHICH ARE DOWN A DEGREE OR SO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST RUNS.
BY SUNDAY, GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONSOLIDATING AND
FORMING A NEW CENTER SOMEWHERE TO OUR EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
DEVELOPING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO REALLY
STRENGTHEN AS H5 HEIGHTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE 90TH
PERCENTILE UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB A BIT FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS WITH 110-113 DEGREE HIGHS BECOMING VERY LIKELY BY
TUESDAY.
MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO IMPROVE STARTING AROUND SUNDAY,
POTENTIALLY BECOMING MEANINGFUL FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
BEGIN SHOWING UP OVER THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN AS EARLY AS
MONDAY. IF THE HIGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED CLOSE TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, DEEPER MOISTURE MAY MOVE
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST PROVIDING MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CHANCES. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND THE
EXTENT OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIAL, SO IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER
FEW DAYS TO GAIN MORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0850Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE OVERALL WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE WESTERLY
SHIFT. SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AT KIPL, WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE OUT OF THE WEST WHILE AT KBLH, WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. A PERIOD OF LIGHT VARIABILITY WILL
BE COMMON THIS MORNING AT KBLH AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AT
KIPL. SOME GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT KIPL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
A DIMINISHING THREAT OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO
GRADUALLY LOWER THE FIRE DANGER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT
VERY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
DESPITE THE DIMINISHING WIND THREAT, THERE WILL STILL BE THE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY BREEZINESS WITH GUSTS REACHING
20-25 MPH TODAY AND 15-20 MPH EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
5-10% THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF
15-30%. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN WINDS LATER THIS WEEK, SEASONABLY
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO VERY
DRY CONDITIONS, SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, VERY DRY AND
RECEPTIVE FUELS, AND THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY BREEZINESS EACH
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LOJERO/KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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