330
FXUS65 KPSR 012319
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
419 PM MST WED JUL 1 2026
UPDATE...UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN WILL
PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO WITH DAYTIME BREEZY AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
BUT WILL AT LEAST STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
- AS THE HEAT BUILDS INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF MODERATE HEAT RISK AND HIGHS
EVENTUALLY REACHING 110 DEGREES BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL, AS A BROAD
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. UNDER CLEAR SKIES,
WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS (MINIMUM RHS AROUND 5-15%), THIS
AFTERNOON'S HIGHS WILL REACH THE 98-102F RANGE ACROSS MOST LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS TO LOW TO MID 90S IN MANY HIGHER ELEVATION
COMMUNITIES. WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG
AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE PEAK WIND GUSTS UP TO 15-
25 MPH. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR 25-30 MPH PEAK
SUNDOWNER WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IMPERIAL COUNTY CA THIS
EVENING.
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, H5 HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY RISE, UP TO AROUND 592DAM (~90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE) BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY, AS THE BROAD WESTERN
TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN STEADY WARMING, +1-4 DEGREES EACH DAY ON THE
HIGHS. WHILE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO WARM BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY
FRIDAY, MORNING LOWS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREE BELOW NORMAL,
THANKS LARGELY TO THE VERY DRY AIR. WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER THAN TODAY, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH,
BUT SEASONAL AFTERNOON BREEZES ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS
UP TO 15-20 MPH. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH PWATS RUNNING 25-50% OF
NORMALS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS MOSTLY STAYING IN THE 20S AND 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BY THE WEEKEND, THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WITH THE
BROAD TROUGHING SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST CANADA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. INTO MEXICO WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTWARD,
QUICKLY RAISING H5 HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND
THEN FURTHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM (TD FOUR-E) IS CURRENTLY AROUND 1000
MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE
ANY DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER, BUT GUIDANCE FAVORS SOME OF ITS
HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WORKING INTO OUR REGION FROM LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THE TIMING AND THE
POSITIONING OF THE CLOUDS COULD STILL CHANGE SOMEWHAT, BUT AS OF
NOW WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD DEAL OF HIGHER CLOUDS CENTERED ON
SATURDAY. THESE CLOUDS MAY HELP TO STEM THE BUILDING HEAT OVER THE
REGION, KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY EVEN SUNDAY. THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST
HIGHS SHOW READINGS BETWEEN 103-108 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND
106-110 DEGREES SUNDAY, BOTH OF WHICH ARE DOWN A DEGREE OR SO FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST RUNS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME VIRGA
OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS,
SHOULD DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA, WHICH GEFS
GUIDANCE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THAN THE EC ENS.
BY SUNDAY, GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONSOLIDATING AND
FORMING A NEW CENTER SOMEWHERE TO OUR EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
DEVELOPING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO REALLY
STRENGTHEN AS H5 HEIGHTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO REACH ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB A BIT FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS WITH 110-113 DEGREE HIGHS BECOMING VERY LIKELY BY
TUESDAY.
MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO IMPROVE STARTING AROUND SUNDAY,
POTENTIALLY BECOMING MEANINGFUL FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
BEGIN SHOWING UP OVER THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN AS EARLY AS
MONDAY. IF THE HIGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED CLOSE TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, DEEPER MOISTURE MAY MOVE
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST PROVIDING MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CHANCES. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND THE
EXTENT OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIAL, SO IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER
FEW DAYS TO GAIN MORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2315Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN WILL
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AT KIPL, WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE SHIFTING OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AT KBLH, WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FLUCTUATE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. SOME TEMPORARY
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KIPL EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
A DIMINISHING THREAT OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO
GRADUALLY LOWER THE FIRE DANGER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT
VERY LOW HUMIDITIES (<10%) WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE THE DIMINISHING WIND THREAT, THERE WILL STILL BE
THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY BREEZINESS WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 MPH TODAY AND 15-20 MPH EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL MOSTLY RANGE
BETWEEN 5-10% THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES OF 15-30%. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN WINDS LATER THIS
WEEK, SEASONABLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS, SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES,
VERY DRY AND RECEPTIVE FUELS, AND THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY
BREEZINESS EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BENEDICT
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN/BENEDICT
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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