809
FXUS65 KPSR 030500
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 PM MST THU JUL 2 2026
UPDATE...UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM HEADING INTO WEEKEND, AND CONTINUE
WARMING HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, REACHING ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
AROUND MONDAY.
- AS THE HEAT BUILDS, IT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF
MODERATE HEAT RISK AND HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING 110 DEGREES
NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH A
SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BEFORE
ISOLATED STORM CHANCES RETURN OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN
DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL HAS INFLUENCE OVER THE GREATER
SOUTHWEST, BUT A SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
BROAD TROUGH IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE WEST. H5 HEIGHTS ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 588DAM AND ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO APPROX 592DAM
INTO THE WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION. CURRENT PWATS ARE NEAR 0.2-0.3 IN ACROSS THE REGION,
CONTRIBUTING TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
SEASONAL SURFACE WINDS, WITH AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL AND TOPOGRAPHICAL VARIATIONS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH BELOW
NORMAL READINGS AS LOWER DESERTS REACH THE LOW 100S. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE
WEEKEND, BACK TO NORMAL, WITH MOST LOWER DESERTS REACHING 105F FOR
HIGHS AND GOOD CHANCES (60-70%) OF REACHING 107-109F IN THE
HOTTEST COMMUNITIES, INCLUDING PHOENIX.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND, SHEDDING OFF FROM TC DOUGLAS WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN THE E PACIFIC. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLIGHTING PWATS RISING TO 0.9-1.1 IN BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, WITH CLOUD BASES MOSTLY STAYING ABOVE
11-12K FEET. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUD COVER, SOME EMBEDDED VIRGA
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAIN (>0.01 IN)
IS VERY LOW ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (10% OR LESS).
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE NOT SO BAD TEMPERATURES TO START OFF JULY WILL UNFORTUNATELY
NOT LAST ANY LONGER AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE OF A DOMINANT FEATURE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO BEGIN TO CONTEND WITH INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS MAKING IT FEEL MORE
UNCOMFORTABLE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY, BUT THE HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL
BE MORE NOTICEABLE GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES
HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT WHERE THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS
MOST LIKELY TO SET UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH IT MORE LIKELY SHIFTING
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA INSTEAD OF TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH IS THEN
FAVORED TO SHIFT FARTHER WESTWARD, POTENTIALLY EVEN SETTLING OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH WILL NOT STOP IT FROM GETTING HOTTER AS H5 HEIGHTS ARE
HEAVILY FAVORED TO RISE MORE INTO A 592-595DM RANGE STARTING
MONDAY AND LIKELY STAYING THERE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE LOWERING SLIGHTLY AGAIN. TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AT THE SAME TIME EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING ON TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY
BETWEEN 110-114 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK WITH POTENTIALLY EVEN SOME
LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REACT TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND HIGHER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS
RISING INTO THE 80S NEARLY EVERYWHERE AND POTENTIALLY TO NEAR 90
DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX AREA BY TUESDAY.
EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE VERY MARGINAL WITH AFTERNOON SURFACE DEW
POINTS STILL MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE MARGINAL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A HIGH CENTER DIRECTLY OVER OR
CLOSE TO OUR AREA CREATING A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE. WE
MAY GET SOME ISOLATED ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS
STARTING MONDAY OR TUESDAY, BUT POPS ARE BARELY REACHING 10-15%.
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FURTHER
INCREASE IN MOISTURE, BUT NOTHING TOO DRASTIC. IT MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INCREASE SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE SOMEWHAT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS, BUT FOR NOW STORM CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS STILL LOOK
TO MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW 10%.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0455Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
UNDER GRADUALLY INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THE OVERALL WIND
PATTERN WILL EXHIBIT THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH OVERALL
SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
UNDER GRADUALLY INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. AT KIPL, WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING OUT
OF THE WEST ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING. AT KBLH, WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
OVERALL SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALLOWING WINDS TO RETURN TO NORMAL PATTERNS WITH ONLY THE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 15-20 MPH GUSTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP FURTHER, RISING INTO THE NORMAL RANGE STARTING
FRIDAY. AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
BETWEEN 5-10% THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
ONLY REACHING 15-30%. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN WINDS, SEASONABLY
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO VERY
DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY DRY AND RECEPTIVE FUELS. MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING MINIMUM HUMIDITIES TO IMPROVE TO 10-15%, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HEAT UP FURTHER WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS
LIKELY REACHING 110 DEGREES.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BENEDICT/TOBIN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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