122
FXUS65 KPSR 031024
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
324 AM MST FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK, REACHING ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY AROUND MONDAY.
- AS THE HEAT BUILDS, IT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF
MODERATE HEAT RISK AND HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING 110 DEGREES
NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH A
SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BEFORE
ISOLATED STORM CHANCES RETURN OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN BY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE TROUGH WHICH
HAS BROUGHT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER LATELY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM IS ALSO PRESENT
CENTERED 900 MILES WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA. THE ATMOSPHERE FOR OUR
REGION REMAINS UNSEASONABLY DRY AT THE MOMENT WITH PWATS AS LOW
AS 20% OF NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BEGIN TO
CHANGE LATER TODAY AS A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING, BUT THEY SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY THIN TODAY, LIKELY NOT IMPACTING TEMPERATURES MUCH.
THE RISING HEIGHTS FROM THE RIDGE TAKING OVER WILL HOWEVER LEAD
SOME WARMING, PUSHING DAYTIME HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN
103-107 DEGREES.
FAIRLY EXPANSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH CLOUD DECKS EVENTUALLY LOWERING AND THICKENING DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. MODELS ARE ALSO ADVERTISING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SWINGING NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION LATER ON
SATURDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT'S LEFT OF THE RAPIDLY DECAYING
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. WEAK VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS, ALONG WITH A MORE FOCUSED MOIST
LAYER BETWEEN 13-16K FEET, SHOULD BRING SOME VIRGA SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING TO SOME SPRINKLES AT TIMES.
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A VERY LIGHT LOCALIZED SHOWER OR TWO AND
POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS FROM THESE SHOWERS, BUT NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY IS OF LOWER THAN TYPICAL CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER. THE NBM IS CALLING FOR ANOTHER 103-107 DEGREE DAY, BUT IT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF WE FALL SHORT BY AS MUCH AS 2 OR 3
DEGREES DUE TO THE LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION.
SUNDAY'S WEATHER LOOKS TO BE EVEN LESS EXCITING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
LIFTS TO THE NORTH LEAVING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DIMINISHING
CLOUD COVER. THE WESTERN DESERTS ARE LIKELY TO CLEAR OUT FIRST
SOMETIME LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, WHILE A GOOD PORTION OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. AS H5 HEIGHTS REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY, THE MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
SUNDAY MORE IN A 105-109 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE INTO A
MONSOONAL PATTERN STARTING NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE, AND WHETHER OR NOT MUCH
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRIEFLY FORM A CENTER SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER, BUT GUIDANCE IS NOW LEANING
TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD TO OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY AROUND THURSDAY.
H5 HEIGHTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL WITHIN SEASONAL NORMALS ON
MONDAY, BUT SOME STRENGTHENING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO
PUSH HEIGHTS JUST INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THE MORE FAVORABLE
POSITIONING OF THE HIGH BY MONDAY SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME
MODEST GULF OF CALIFORNIA MOISTURE SURGES, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
SURFACE DEW POINTS NEARING 50 DEGREES AND LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS
OF 6-7 G/KG. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT, IT
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE,
AT LEAST ON MONDAY. SOME FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD
FINALLY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION, BUT AS OF NOW IT DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH MORE THAN 10-20% CHANCES.
THE BIGGER FORECAST CONCERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK. ENSEMBLE PEAK H5 HEIGHTS OF
594-596DM LOOK TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO DAYTIME HIGHS RISING INTO A 110-114 DEGREE RANGE
BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO TREND UPWARD WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 80S AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
CENTRAL PHOENIX. GUIDANCE THEN INDICATES LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER AT
LEAST ARIZONA LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD TO OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. IF THIS OCCURS, IT
SHOULD SHAVE OFF 2-3 DEGREES FROM OUR HIGHS BY NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0900Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
UNDER GRADUALLY INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THE OVERALL WIND
PATTERN WILL EXHIBIT THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH OVERALL
SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
UNDER GRADUALLY INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. AT KIPL, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT KBLH, WINDS WILL GENERALLY
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL LEAD TO
WARMING TEMPERATURES, EVENTUALLY LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY
15-20 MPH GUSTS AND MAINLY STARTING SUNDAY. AFTERNOON MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 5-10% THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ONLY REACHING 15-30% THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE IMPROVING TO 10-15% STARTING SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DIMINISHED WINDS, SEASONABLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY DRY AND
RECEPTIVE FUELS. MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT OVERALL
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LOJERO/BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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