658
FXUS65 KPSR 032046
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
146 PM MST FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK, REACHING ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY AROUND MONDAY.
- AS THE HEAT BUILDS, IT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF
MODERATE HEAT RISK AND HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING 110 DEGREES
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH A
SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BEFORE
ISOLATED STORM CHANCES RETURN OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN BY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE HAS NUDGED INTO THE REGION, WITH 594DAM
HEIGHTS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NM AND 590-592DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS INCREASE IN HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA HAS YIELDED A
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES. MIDDAY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING AROUND
2-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY AND WITH THIS
WARMING, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES, WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE 104-107F RANGE.
SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN SPREADING INTO THE REGION. MUCH
OF THIS IS MOISTURE SHEDDING OFF OF FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM
DOUGLAS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND THICKEN, THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS REMNANT MIDLEVEL
VORTICITY IS ALSO SHOWN TO MOVE NORTH TOWARD L.A. LATER ON
SATURDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS AZ. PWATS WILL
GO FROM ABNORMAL DRY AT AROUND 0.3" TODAY TO SEASONAL LEVELS,
0.9-1.1", BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS MOISTURE FLUX WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, WITH DRY AIR PERSISTING
BELOW 700MB. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL HARDLY BUDGE FROM TODAY
TO TOMORROW. THE MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY, BUT WITH THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
MOST PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
EVEN LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHERN AZ. SPRINKLES HAVE AT LEAST BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. THE CHANCES OF GETTING A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY LOW (<5%), DUE TO
VERY LOW INSTABILITY. HEADING INTO SUNDAY CLOUD COVER WILL
GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND LIFT PROGRESSES
OFF TO THE NORTH.
THE THICKER CLOUDS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY MODERATE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO A DEGREE, LIMITING THE SOLAR RADIATION. LATEST NBM
FORECAST HIGHS HAVE TRENDED A DEGREE COOLER ON SATURDAY THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS, BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE HIGHS
FAIL TO REACH 105F, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. THE ADDED
CLOUD-COVER WILL ALSO HELP INSULATE MORNING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH LOWS LIKELY STAYING IN THE 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. WITH
MORE SUN MIXING IN ON SUNDAY, AND THE GRADUAL WARMING ATMOSPHERE,
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY. A FEW LOWER DESERT SPOTS WILL EVEN NEAR 110F, INCLUDING
IN PHOENIX WHERE THERE IS AROUND 30-50% ODDS OF REACHING THE MARK.
BESIDES THE HEAT, AND POTENTIAL WET STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY,
WINDS WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH GUSTS MOSTLY UP TO 15-20 MPH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE INTO A
MONSOONAL PATTERN STARTING NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE, AND WHETHER OR NOT MUCH
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRIEFLY FORM A CENTER SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER, BUT GUIDANCE IS NOW LEANING
TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD TO OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY AROUND THURSDAY. AT LEAST FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE POTENTIALLY REPOSITIONING AGAIN BACK TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
H5 HEIGHTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL WITHIN SEASONAL NORMALS ON
MONDAY, BUT SOME STRENGTHENING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO
PUSH HEIGHTS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THE MORE FAVORABLE
POSITIONING OF THE HIGH BY MONDAY SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME
MODEST GULF OF CALIFORNIA MOISTURE SURGES, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
SURFACE DEW POINTS NEARING 50 DEGREES AND LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS
OF 6-7 G/KG. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT, IT
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE, AT
LEAST ON MONDAY. SOME FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD
FINALLY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION, BUT AS OF NOW IT DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH MORE THAN 10-20% CHANCES.
THE BIGGER FORECAST CONCERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY SOME
AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK. ENSEMBLE PEAK H5 HEIGHTS OF 594-596DM
LOOK TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO DAYTIME HIGHS RISING INTO A 110-115 DEGREE RANGE BOTH DAYS,
WITH ODDS OF EXCEEDING 115F AT 30-50% IN SOME LOCATIONS, INCLUDING
PHOENIX. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO TREND UPWARD WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 80S AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
CENTRAL PHOENIX. GUIDANCE THEN INDICATES LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER AT
LEAST ARIZONA LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD TO OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. IF THIS OCCURS, IT
SHOULD SHAVE OFF 2-3 DEGREES FROM OUR HIGHS BY NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1740Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
UNDER GRADUALLY INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW
FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS, WITH PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. VIRGA SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE
PICTURE LATE IN THE FORECAST WINDOW, BUT NO MENTION OF VCSH/SHRA
HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS NO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS
ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EVENING UNDER GRADUALLY INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW FAMILIAR DIURNAL TENDENCIES, WITH PERIODS OF VRB CONDITIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. VIRGA SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE FORECAST WINDOW,
BUT NO MENTION OF VCSH/SHRA HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME AS NO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS POTENTIAL
ACTIVITY.
FIRE WEATHER
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL LEAD TO
WARMING TEMPERATURES, EVENTUALLY LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY
15-20 MPH GUSTS AND MAINLY STARTING SUNDAY. AFTERNOON MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 5-10% THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ONLY REACHING 15-30% THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IMPROVING TO 10-15% STARTING SUNDAY.
DESPITE THE DIMINISHED WINDS, SEASONABLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY
DRY AND RECEPTIVE FUELS. MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BENEDICT
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN/BENEDICT
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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