256
FXUS65 KPSR 042119
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
219 PM MST SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SPRINKLES OR A
BRIEF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK BY TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, INCLUDING PHOENIX, YUMA, AND
EL CENTRO. FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY 111 TO 116 DEGREES.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE COMING WEEK, WITH LOW CHANCES TO EXPAND INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RADAR AT MIDDAY SHOWED SCATTERED ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ AND
CA. MOST OF THE ECHOES WERE JUST VIRGA OR LIGHT SPRINKLES, BUT
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS HAVE
MAINLY DEVELOPED ALONG A NARROW BAND OF MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. PARTS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA HAVE
EVEN SEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF MEASURABLE RAIN OUT OF
THESE. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW LIGHTNING FLASHES THIS MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SPRINKLES AND A BRIEF SHOWER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AREAS WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY AND THROUGH
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD AS
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES. ODDS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN (>0.01") WILL REMAIN VERY LOW (<5%) DUE TO VERY
DRY AIR BELOW 700MB (SFC T-TD SPREADS UP AROUND 60F). DRY AIR
EVENTUALLY MOVING IN ABOVE 400MB SUNDAY, AS SHOWN IN RH
X-SECTIONS, WILL CONFINE THE MOISTURE MAINLY TO THE 600-400MB
LAYER AND SHOULD CUT DOWN THE SHOWER CHANCES BY LATE-
MORNING/MIDDAY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. THE DRYING ALOFT WILL ALSO
HELP TO GRADUALLY DISPERSE THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL LIKELY BE HINDERED BY
THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ WHERE THERE WAS
BROKEN TO OVERCAST COVERAGE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
FORECAST HIGHS OF 102-106F ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ MAY ACTUALLY
COME UP 2-5F SHY OF THE FORECAST SHOULD THE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE
PERSIST THROUGH THE 4-5 PM HOUR. GREATER INSOLATION HEADING INTO
SUNDAY SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING NEAR 110 DEGREES
FOR SOME LOCATIONS, INCLUDING PHOENIX. ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES OF
WARMING IS EXPECTED MONDAY, WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PERSISTING
OVER THE REGION WHILE THE CENTER ALSO REPOSITIONS NEAR THE AZ-NM
BORDER. THE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY-MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK. GRADUAL INCREASES IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, FROM SOUTHERLY GULF SURGES
AND STORM DRIVEN PUSHES FROM THE E/SE DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THROUGH MONDAY THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL FALL WELL SHORT OF IDEAL FOR ANY MONSOON CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS. PARTS OF FAR EASTERN AZ WILL
AT LEAST SEE AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON MONSOONAL STORM CHANCES
BEGINNING MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF
VERY HOT CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT RIGHT OVER THE REGION HEADING INTO
TUESDAY WITH GUIDANCE NOW FAVORING SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH
GOING INTO MID WEEK. FORECAST H5 HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN RISING TO
BETWEEN 594-596DAM BY TUESDAY BEFORE PEAKING BETWEEN 595-597DAM,
WHICH IS AROUND THE 95TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY.
NBM GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS TRENDED NOTICEABLY WARMER
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, MOSTLY DUE TO THE HIGHER
HEIGHTS BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT DUE TO LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA. NBM FORECAST HIGHS FOR TUESDAY-
THURSDAY ARE WELL INTO A 112-116 DEGREE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWER DESERTS. THIS HEAT EPISODE IS VERY LIKELY TO BRING OUR
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SUMMER. THE UPTICK IN FORECAST
TEMPERATURES HAS LED US TO ISSUE AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH FOR
TUESDAY-THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE LOWER DESERTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVING IT SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST LATER NEXT WEEK,
POTENTIALLY RE-CENTERING TO OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. IF
THIS OCCURS, IT SHOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BY
NEXT FRIDAY, BUT JUST AS IMPORTANT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA.
THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL
MOISTURE INCREASE AS IT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
HIGH CENTER. IF THE HIGH CENTER DOES END UP MOVING FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST, THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ENOUGH OF A
MOISTURE INCREASE AND WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE TO BRING SOME HIGH
TERRAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANY CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS IS
MORE LIKELY THAN NOT TO HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE HIGH
MAY AGAIN RECENTER TOWARD THE CLASSIC FOUR CORNERS POSITIONING.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1715Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
UNDER PERIODS OF THICKER MID AND HIGH CIGS. WITH THESE CIGS,
EXPANSIVE AREAS OF VIRGA AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED SHRA/SOME
AREAS OF SPRINKLES WILL BE LIKELY AT ANY POINT FROM THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT WITH LIMITED IMPACT TO
OPERATIONS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS, WITH
PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
PERIODS OF THICKER MID/HIGH CIGS, OCCASIONAL VIRGA, AND POTENTIALLY
AN ISOLATED SHRA/A FEW AREAS OF SPRINKLES. CHANCES FOR OPERATIONAL
IMPACTS FROM CIGS/SHRA REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF
PACKAGE. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS, WITH EXTENDED
PERIODS OF VRB CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT EACH TERMINAL.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.
SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIEST TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
AROUND 5-10% AND WILL IMPROVE ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 10-15% SUNDAY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL
IMPROVE TO 25-40% BY MONDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FURTHER
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE IN THE THE WEEK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW DIURNAL UPSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY PATTERNS WITH MODEST UPSLOPE
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF (GUSTS UP TO 20-25
MPH). DESPITE WINDS BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS, SEASONABLY
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND DRY FUELS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (5-10%) FOR
SPRINKLES OF A BRIEF VERY LIGHT SHOWER THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE,
WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN MONSOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN, BUT ANY CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ IS MORE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK AT THE EARLIEST.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ530>534-536>551-553>555-559-560-562.
CA...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ562-564>570.
SHORT TERM...BENEDICT
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN/BENEDICT
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN/BENEDICT
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