953
FXUS65 KPSR 060940
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
240 AM MST MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALL WEEK CREATING AT LEAST A
MODERATE HEAT RISK AND AREAS OF MAJOR HEAT RISK FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, INCLUDING PHOENIX, YUMA, AND
EL CENTRO. FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY 111 TO 116 DEGREES.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK, ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN ARIZONA
HIGH TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS AGAIN BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AS IT STRENGTHENS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BRING OUR HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRIER AIR ALOFT SLOWLY
WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME IMPROVING
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SOUNDINGS ALSO STILL SHOW SOME
MOISTURE REMAINING BETWEEN 15-20K FEET WHICH IS HELPING TO BRING
SOME OVERNIGHT HIGH BASED CU.
AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK, H5 HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FROM
THE CURRENT 591-593DM TO 594-596DM FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHER HEIGHTS AND THE CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT WILL
EASILY HELP TO PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS TO AROUND OR JUST OVER 110
DEGREES TODAY AND CLOSER TO 115 DEGREES STARTING TUESDAY. EXTREME
HEAT WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT ON TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY BETWEEN 111-115 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS TO AS WARM AS
90 DEGREES IN THE PHOENIX AREA.
MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO SEEP WESTWARD INTO EASTERN ARIZONA
TODAY, LIKELY ENOUGH TO BRING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FOCUSED
MORE OVER THE WHITE MTNS TO AS FAR WEST AS EASTERN GILA COUNTY.
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE, EVEN EXTENDING THROUGH MOST OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA, IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THIS MARGINAL MOISTURE
WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WHICH IS LIKELY TO LIMIT CONVECTION. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
CONVECTION POTENTIALLY REACHING AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL PINAL
COUNTY, BUT OTHER HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE OF A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD, POTENTIALLY REACHING
THE PHOENIX AREA SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HOT AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER REDEVELOPING TO JUST OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN H5
HEIGHTS FOR OUR REGION. THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING DRIER AIR TEMPORARILY INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA, BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
AN EVEN MORE INHOSPITABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD LIMIT
DAYTIME CONVECTION FURTHER STARTING WEDNESDAY WITH POPS LOWERING
CLOSER TO 10% OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN BY THURSDAY.
EXTREME HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE PEAK OF THE HEAT LIKELY OCCURRING
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING 112-116 DEGREES. ONCE THE RIDGE
CENTER BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED TO OUR WEST THURSDAY IT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY DROP. FRIDAY'S
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL VERY CLOSE TO MAJOR HEATRISK, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WHERE HIGHS NEAR 115 DEGREES ARE LIKELY
TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL FAVORING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO QUICKLY
SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE COMING WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY
REACHING NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING BY SUNDAY. IF AND ONCE
THIS OCCURS, IT WILL TURN OUR WINDS OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT, BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY AMPLE MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA IS STILL A ISSUE AS IT COULD
HAPPEN AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE
REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF REACHING THE LOWER DESERTS AT SOME
POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL ALSO BE WATCHING FOR ANY EASTERLY
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MANAGE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO
OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ANY OF THESE POTENTIAL FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO ENHANCE STORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0900Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL MOSTLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS,
ASIDE FROM SOME EXTENDED PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VRB PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS. AT KPHX, THERE WILL BE A LATER THAN USUAL
EASTERLY SHIFT AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING (~10Z). FEW TO SCT CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING JUST FEW THIS
AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AT KIPL, CURRENT W'RLY WINDS WILL GO SE'RLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK W'RLY THIS EVENING. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20KT IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM
SOME SUNDOWNER WINDS. AT KBLH, A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS IS EXPECTED AT KBLH THIS MORNING. THEN WINDS WILL DEVELOP
A S-SW COMPONENT BY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
HOTTER CONDITIONS, BUT A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. LOWER DESERT HIGHS WILL
WARM TO 110 DEGREES STARTING TODAY BEFORE PEAKING AT AROUND 115
DEGREES MIDWEEK. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES OF 10-15% ARE
ANTICIPATED EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 25-40%. WINDS
WILL FOLLOW DIURNAL UPSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY PATTERNS WITH MODEST
UPSLOPE AFTERNOON BREEZINESS MOSTLY STAYING BELOW 20 MPH, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE THIS WEEK SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
SOME ISOLATED STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH
TERRAIN, BUT ANY CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ IS
MORE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
AZZ530>534-536>551-553>555-559-560-562.
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
CAZ562-564>570.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...SALERNO/BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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