282
FXUS65 KPSR 061701
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST MON JUL 6 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT RISK
AND AREAS OF MAJOR HEAT RISK TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, INCLUDING PHOENIX, YUMA, AND EL
CENTRO WITH FORECAST HIGHS 111 TO 116 DEGREES.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS AGAIN BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AS IT STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WILL BRING OUR HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR.
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRIER AIR ALOFT SLOWLY WORKING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME IMPROVING MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SOUNDINGS ALSO STILL SHOW SOME MOISTURE REMAINING
BETWEEN 15-20K FEET WHICH IS HELPING TO BRING SOME OVERNIGHT HIGH
BASED CU.
AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE
REGION EARLY THIS WEEK, H5 HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FROM THE
CURRENT 591-593DM TO 594-596DM FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND THE CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT WILL EASILY HELP TO
PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS TO AROUND OR JUST OVER 110 DEGREES TODAY AND
CLOSER TO 115 DEGREES STARTING TUESDAY. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS GO
INTO EFFECT ON TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH FORECAST HIGHS
MOSTLY BETWEEN 111-115 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S FOR MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS TO AS WARM AS 90 DEGREES IN THE
PHOENIX AREA.
MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO SEEP WESTWARD INTO EASTERN ARIZONA
TODAY, LIKELY ENOUGH TO BRING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FOCUSED MORE
OVER THE WHITE MTNS TO AS FAR WEST AS EASTERN GILA COUNTY. SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE, EVEN EXTENDING THROUGH MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA,
IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THIS MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL HAVE
TO OVERCOME SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH IS LIKELY
TO LIMIT CONVECTION. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME CONVECTION POTENTIALLY
REACHING AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY, BUT OTHER HI-RES
MODELS ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE OF A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD, POTENTIALLY REACHING THE PHOENIX AREA SOMETIME
LATER TUESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HOT AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER REDEVELOPING TO JUST OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN H5
HEIGHTS FOR OUR REGION. THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRIER AIR TEMPORARILY INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA,
BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA. AN EVEN
MORE INHOSPITABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME
CONVECTION FURTHER STARTING WEDNESDAY WITH POPS LOWERING CLOSER TO
10% OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN BY THURSDAY.
EXTREME HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE PEAK OF THE HEAT LIKELY OCCURRING ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING 112-116 DEGREES. ONCE THE RIDGE CENTER
BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED TO OUR WEST THURSDAY IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY DROP. FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL VERY CLOSE TO MAJOR HEATRISK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS WHERE HIGHS NEAR 115 DEGREES ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL FAVORING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO QUICKLY
SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE COMING WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY
REACHING NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING BY SUNDAY. IF AND ONCE THIS
OCCURS, IT WILL TURN OUR WINDS OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY AMPLE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO OUR AREA IS STILL A ISSUE AS IT COULD HAPPEN AS EARLY AS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM EAST
TO WEST AS THE MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OF REACHING THE LOWER DESERTS AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE WILL ALSO BE WATCHING FOR ANY EASTERLY DISTURBANCES THAT WILL
MANAGE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. ANY OF THESE POTENTIAL FEATURES ARE LIKELY TO ENHANCE
STORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1700Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER A
FEW MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS. CONFIDENCE IS EXCELLENT THAT WIND
BEHAVIOR WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PAST 24 HOURS INCLUDING
LIMITED AFTERNOON WESTERLY GUSTS, AND A LATER THAN USUAL OVERNIGHT
SHIFT BACK TO EASTERLY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE ONLY WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY BECOME S/SE IN
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING MORE SW IN THE EVENING. A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
HOTTER CONDITIONS, BUT A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. LOWER DESERT HIGHS WILL WARM TO 110
DEGREES STARTING TODAY BEFORE PEAKING AT AROUND 115 DEGREES MIDWEEK.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES OF 10-15% ARE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY WITH
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 25-40%. WINDS WILL FOLLOW DIURNAL
UPSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY PATTERNS WITH MODEST UPSLOPE AFTERNOON BREEZINESS
MOSTLY STAYING BELOW 20 MPH, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE THIS
WEEK SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED STORM CHANCES ACROSS
THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN, BUT ANY CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ IS MORE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
AZZ530>534-536>551-553>555-559-560-562.
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
CAZ562-564>570.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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