807
FXUS65 KPSR 100800
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
100 AM MST FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY WITH LINGERING EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS ACROSS SOME LOWER DESERT AREAS.
- THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN ARIZONA AS WELL AS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY.
- DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE THE
EASTERN EDGE EXTENDS INTO ARIZONA WITH NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
ENCOMPASSING THE STATE. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY THROUGH SOUTHERN CA AND THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS EXPECTED TO HOVER
BETWEEN 593-594DM, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. AS A RESULT OF THIS SLIGHT LOWERING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELDS, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 109-112
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS TO BETWEEN
108-115 DEGREES ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF IMPERIAL COUNTY AS WELL AS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AS THESE AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT CLOSE TO 115 DEGREES, RESULTING IN AREAS
OF MAJOR HEATRISK. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE PHOENIX METRO AREA, MOSTLY DUE TO
VERY WARM EARLY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 90 DEGREES MAKING
IT DIFFICULT FOR THE BODY TO RECOVER FROM THE DAYTIME HEAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY COOL EVEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 106-110
DEGREES.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, A GOOD DEAL OF SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LIMITED STORM
COVERAGE WITH ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
RELEGATED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST AZ AS INDICATED
BY THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. HEADING INTO SATURDAY, THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL BE CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
QUICKLY MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS UTAH AND THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT MORE OUT OF
THE EAST, HELPING TO IMPORT HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION, A STRONG CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN SONORA FRIDAY
EVENING WILL HELP BOOST MOISTURE LEVELS AS WELL. LATEST HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN AZ
HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE MOVING WESTWARD, WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST AZ. ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE MUCH
MORE LIMITED AS THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD
DEAL OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STRONG
INDICATIONS FROM THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE THAT A STRONG OUTFLOW
OR POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE OUTFLOWS EMANATING FROM THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ WILL MIGRATE NORTHWESTWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ, PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. IF STRONG/MULTIPLE OUTFLOW COLLISIONS OCCUR, THEN IT
COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL STORMS. OTHERWISE, THE
OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE TO INCREASE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVEN
MORE ACROSS THE REGION, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BETTER
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT HEADING INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE AMONGST THE GUIDANCE OF THE
UPPER HIGH QUICKLY MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST REGIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS OVERALL PATTERN SETUP
WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, HELPING TO
TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND TRANSITION THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO A
MORE ACTIVE MONSOONAL PATTERN. THE LATEST EPS AND GEFS INDICATE
PWATS CLIMBING AND REMAINING ABOVE 1.5" THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MIXING RATIOS REMAINING ABOVE 10 G/KG.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, SUNDAY WILL OFFER THE FIRST REAL SHOT THIS
MONSOON SEASON FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS, GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NBM WITH POPS SOLIDLY IN THE 40-60% RANGE BY
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND WILL EXPAND
FURTHER WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN DESERTS WITH DAILY
VARIATIONS IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE. THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM
GUIDANCE THAT A RATHER ORGANIZED EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH MAY
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND AFFECT THE REGION SOMETIME TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS
ARE NOTORIOUSLY POOR IN THE OVERALL HANDLING OF THESE EASTERLY
WAVES/INVERTED TROUGHS, HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST. IF THE EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH SCENARIO PANS OUT,
THEN THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
MATERIALIZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT COULD BE
HIGHLY IMPACTFUL.
WITH THE ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS AND MORE CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER
DESERTS IN THE UPPER 100S TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 80S. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE OVERALL
HEATRISK LEVELS SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0520Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN OUTFLOW FROM DISTANT CONVECTION IN SE AZ MOVING THROUGH
REGION TONIGHT. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK CURRENTLY AND COULD
WASH OUT PRIOR TO REACHING ANY OF THE TERMINALS. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND REMOVED THE TEMPS AT KSDL AND KDVT, BUT KEPT THEM IN AT KPHX
AND KIWA. CURRENT TIMING LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0730-0900Z WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY A GULF SURGE COULD OVERPOWER THE OUTFLOW AND HELP TO
KEEP WINDS WESTERLY UNTIL THE EASTERLY SHIFT AROUND 10Z. ONCE
WINDS GO EASTERLY TONIGHT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EASTERLY
UNTIL THE TYPICAL WESTERLY SHIFT LATE TOMORROW MORNING. SOME GUSTS
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KT IS AGAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BY LATE TOMORROW EVENING A SIMILAR
SET UP AND AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY TO TONIGHT'S SET UP EXISTS.
MODELS SHOW A DISTANT OUTFLOW POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH LATE
TOMORROW EVENING OR SHOW THE GULF SURGE OVERPOWERING ANY OUTFLOWS
KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED (10-15 KT) OUT OF THE WEST. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
AT KIPL, CURRENT SW'RLY WINDS WILL GO SE'RLY BY 07Z AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SE'RLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WIND SPEEDS AT KIPL WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 10 KT. AT KBLH, MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN S'RLY THE WHOLE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD (NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW 10 KT). A PERIOD OF BREEZY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AROUND 09Z FROM A GULF SURGE, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WINDS WILL
THEN DROP SLIGHTLY DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE GUSTS OF
20-25 KT PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DROP
OFF SLIGHTLY AGAIN AROUND SUNSET. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
FIRE WEATHER
SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS READINGS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
SATURDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. MORE
WIDESPREAD MONSOONAL ACTIVITY IS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS TODAY
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10-20% ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS AND 15-25%
ACROSS THE EASTERN DISTRICTS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS SATURDAY
INCREASE TO 15-25% AREAWIDE. STARTING ON SUNDAY AND PERSISTING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE EVEN FURTHER AND BOTTOM OUT ABOVE 20% AS MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE, AND THUS ALLEVIATING MUCH OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL OUTFLOWS/THUNDERSTORM WINDS, WINDS SHOULD
FAVOR DIURNAL TRENDS WITH THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS AROUND
20 MPH. SOME STRONGER AFTERNOON GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ530-537-
540-542>544-546-548-550-551.
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ562-566-
567-569-570.
SHORT TERM...LOJERO
LONG TERM...LOJERO
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...LOJERO
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