512
FXUS65 KPSR 110051
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
551 PM MST FRI JUL 10 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH TODAY BEING THE HOTTEST AS AREAS OF
MAJOR HEAT RISK LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION, KEEPING
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH DISTANT OUTFLOWS
MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST TO EASTERN
PORTION OF THE LOWER DESERTS SATURDAY EVENING.
- DEEPER AND MORE WIDESPREAD MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
500MB ANALYSIS REVEALED THROUGH THE MORNING THAT THE SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH HAS BEGUN ITS NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATION, SETTING UP WHAT LOOKS TO
BE AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. BEFORE WE GET THERE THOUGH, MOST OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AS RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COMBINE TO SUBDUE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART. WITH PLENTY OF
INSOLATION, AND HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH HOVERING AROUND
594DM, WIDESPREAD READINGS BETWEEN 110-115 ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWER
DESERT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF
HIGH-END MODERATE HEATRISK, WITH PATCHES OF MAJOR HEATRISK FOR
THE PHOENIX METRO, LOWER COLORADO RIVER, AND IMPERIAL VALLEYS. AS
A RESULT, EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS UNDER THE MAJOR
CATEGORY WILL LINGER FOR ONE MORE DAY.
THE ENTIRETY OF ARIZONA WILL NOT BE VOID OF RAINFALL THOUGH THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME, AS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF ARIZONA. THE MAIN FOCUS OF
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE TUCSON CWA, BUT AREAS ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM WILL START TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY FURTHER NORTH. FOR OUR COVERAGE
AREA, THE BEST CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER FAR GILA COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THAT BEING
SAID, THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS COULD HAVE A MUCH FARTHER REACH AS
THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL THAT A STRONG OUTFLOW WILL WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH PORTIONS OF MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTIES BY SATURDAY
EVENING. EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A POTENTIAL BOUNDARY STILL
NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT BY HI-RES DATA, BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS WOULD
BE GUSTS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. A
ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM INITIATED BY THIS POTENTIAL BOUNDARY
OVER PINAL COUNTY CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT CHANCES ARE ONLY
AROUND 10% AT MOST AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE AN OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL SETUP BY
SUNDAY LOOKS MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR LOWER DESERT RAINFALL.
ONE OTHER MORE SUBTLE ASPECT OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. THANKS TO AN OUTFLOW
FROM STORMS OVER NORTHERN SONORA LAST NIGHT, LOCATIONS SUCH AS
YUMA AND BLYTHE, CA OBSERVED GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 30-40 MPH PRIOR
TO SUNRISE, AND ACCOMPANYING DUST KEPT VISIBILITIES REDUCED WELL
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. HI-RES GUIDANCE PAINTS A VERY SIMILAR
PICTURE FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 40 MPH WHICH
COULD GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. IT IS NOT A FORGONE
CONCLUSION THAT THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL OCCUR, AS THEY WILL BE
HEAVILY CONDITIONAL ON HOW DISTANT CONVECTION EVOLVES, BUT GIVEN
THE IMPACTS OBSERVED FROM THE FIST ROUND SEEN LAST NIGHT, NEAR-
TERM INSTANCES SHOULD BE MONITORED AT LEAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE AMONGST THE GUIDANCE OF THE
UPPER HIGH QUICKLY MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST REGIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS OVERALL PATTERN SETUP WILL
MAINTAIN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, HELPING TO
TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND TRANSITION THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO A MORE
ACTIVE MONSOONAL PATTERN. THE LATEST EPS AND GEFS INDICATE PWATS
CLIMBING AND REMAINING ABOVE 1.5" THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH LOW-LEVEL MIXING RATIOS REMAINING ABOVE 10 G/KG.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, SUNDAY WILL OFFER THE FIRST REAL SHOT THIS
MONSOON SEASON FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS, GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NBM WITH POPS SOLIDLY IN THE 40-60% RANGE BY
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND WILL EXPAND
FURTHER WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN DESERTS WITH DAILY
VARIATIONS IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE. THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM
GUIDANCE THAT A RATHER ORGANIZED EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH MAY
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND AFFECT THE REGION SOMETIME TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY POOR IN THE OVERALL HANDLING OF THESE EASTERLY
WAVES/INVERTED TROUGHS, HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST. IF THE EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH SCENARIO PANS OUT,
THEN THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
MATERIALIZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT COULD BE
HIGHLY IMPACTFUL.
WITH THE ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS AND MORE CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER
DESERTS IN THE UPPER 100S TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 80S. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE OVERALL
HEATRISK LEVELS SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0045Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
LOFTED DUST/HAZE IMPACTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN
WIND SHIFTS AND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUES UNDER A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS. WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20KT WILL AFFECT SOME TERMINALS LATE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. GUSTS MAY BE MORE EVIDENT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH A LOW CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL LOFTED
DUST. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS REGARDING A WIND SHIFT BACK TO
E/SE OVERNIGHT AND TIMING. DISTANT OUTFLOWS MAY FORCE A WIND SHIFT
AROUND 08-09Z (SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING), OR A LACK OF OUTFLOW MAY
CREATE JUST A FEW HOURS OF VARIABLE WINDS AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE
REVERTING BACK TO W/SW.
SATURDAY OUTLOOK: CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STORMS IN EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL SEND MULTIPLE STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
TOWARDS PHOENIX SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS, ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS
WITH BLOWING DUST APPEAR LIKELY MID/LATE EVENING WHICH MAY INCUR A
PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR VISIBILITIES. EXACT WIND DIRECTIONS ARE
UNCERTAIN AND MULTIPLE OUTFLOWS COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS (FROM
DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS). THE MORE DEFINITIVE OUTFLOW CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE FROM THE SE LATE TOMORROW EVENING, AND THIS HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED INTO THE KPHX TAF WITH THIS PACKAGE, HOWEVER, HAVE LEFT
REDUCED VIS AND ANY HZ/BLDU OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
A SIMILAR SET UP TO LAST NIGHT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE SE. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
ON THE EXACT STRENGTH OF THIS OUTFLOW. BUT IT LOOKS TO ARRIVE AT
KBLH AROUND 09Z. A TEMPO HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE TAF WITH
THIS PACKAGE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 20-25KT, REDUCED VIS (4SM), AND
HZ. THIS OUTFLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO KIPL, LIKE LAST
NIGHT. SO, AT KIPL CURRENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO
SE'RLY LATE TONIGHT, WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT.
FIRE WEATHER
SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS READINGS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
SATURDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. MORE
WIDESPREAD MONSOONAL ACTIVITY IS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS TODAY WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 10-20% ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS AND 15-25% ACROSS
THE EASTERN DISTRICTS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS SATURDAY INCREASE
TO 15-25% AREAWIDE. STARTING ON SUNDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER
AND BOTTOM OUT ABOVE 20% AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE, AND THUS
ALLEVIATING MUCH OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
POTENTIAL OUTFLOWS/THUNDERSTORM WINDS, WINDS SHOULD FAVOR DIURNAL
TRENDS WITH THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS AROUND 20 MPH. SOME
STRONGER AFTERNOON GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ530-537-
540-542>544-546-548-550-551.
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ562-566-
567-569-570.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...LOJERO
AVIATION...18/BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...LOJERO
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