078
FXUS65 KPSR 111155
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
455 AM MST SAT JUL 11 2026
UPDATE
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA TODAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTANT OUTFLOWS TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
- DEEPER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY WITH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING OUT OF THE EAST. THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THIS EVENING AND THEN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY EVENING WHILE STRENGTHENING IN THE PROCESS. AS THIS WHOLE
PATTERN EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE, THE MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY CAUSE MOISTURE LEVELS TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND THUS TRANSITIONING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO A
MORE ACTIVE MONSOONAL PATTERN.
A STRONG STORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN SONORA LAST
EVENING WILL SEND AN NORTHWESTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW TOWARDS
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AREA, CREATING GUSTY WINDS,
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING. HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
AZ WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER GILA COUNTY. THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IS LIKELY TO SENDING A STRONG OUTFLOW
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AS DEPICTED BY MOST OF THE
HI-RES GUIDANCE. POTENTIAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE OUTFLOW PLOWS THROUGH ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST, POTENTIALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PINAL AND
SOUTHERN MARICOPA COUNTIES. GIVEN THIS STRONG SIGNAL FOR A STRONG
OUTFLOW AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING DUST, IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO TUCSON, A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PINAL AND SOUTHERN MARICOPA COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING
FOR VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY DROPPING BELOW ONE MILE. EVEN THOUGH
MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ SHOULD BE STORM-FREE THIS EVENING DUE TO
A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE, IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THE OUTFLOW MAY SPARK A FEW ISOLATED STORMS IN
SOME SPOTS.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAR MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
LOWER DESERTS AS THE INCREASING MOISTURE, WITH LOW-LEVEL MIXING
RATIOS EXCEEDING 10 G/KG, WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. THUS, THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME
SURVIVING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAVE
STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE MOGOLLON RIM BY THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE MOVING THROUGH AND AFFECTING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING
PROFILES FOR PHOENIX DURING THIS TIME PERIOD INDICATE CAPE VALUES
NEAR 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS NEAR 1500 J/KG.
THEREFORE, CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS AND STRONG OUTFLOWS AND AS A RESULT OF THIS POTENTIAL, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY BETWEEN 105-110
DEGREES ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK IN PLACE.
THEREFORE, IF PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, MAKE SURE TO TAKE THE
NECESSARY HEAT PRECAUTIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN SETUP AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
REPOSITIONING ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS OVERALL PATTERN SETUP WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, HELPING WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST EPS AND GEFS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS
STAYING ABOVE 1.5" THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL
MIXING RATIOS REMAINING ABOVE 10-12 G/KG. THEREFORE, CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH DAILY VARIATIONS IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE. HEADING TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME INDICATION FROM THE GUIDANCE OF AN EASTERLY
WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH POTENTIALLY APPROACHING THE AREA. HOWEVER,
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF THE TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER, IF THE EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIO COMES TO FRUITION, IT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND THUS THIS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN STEADY STATE AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 106-110 DEGREES, RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK. THE LATEST NBM SHOWS TEMPERATURES
COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS, POTENTIALLY INTO THE LOW 100S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, BY THE END OF THE WEEK
MOST LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IF THE EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIO PANS OUT.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1150Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
BLOWING DUST, REDUCED VSBY, AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY CROSS-RUNWAY
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THIS EVENING. WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL START OFF OUT OF A NW DIRECTION BEFORE SHIFTING BACK
OUT OF W-SW AT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KT. AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT STORMS IN EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL SEND A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOWARDS
PHOENIX BY THIS EVENING. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
TO DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AN
ABRUPT SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT WITH BLOWING DUST BETWEEN 03Z-06Z
WHICH MAY CAUSE VSBY TO BRIEFLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR IFR. WINDS
WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE SE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS
FALLING BELOW 10 KTS. CLOUD BASES TODAY SHOULD REMAIN AOA 15 KFT
WITH PERIODS OF SCT TO AT TIMES BKN CIGS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW AT BOTH SE CA TERMINALS FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY SE AT KIPL AND S-SW
AT KBLH THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS REACHING 20 KTS AT TIMES.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH ONLY
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVER THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS READINGS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN DISTRICTS. MORE WIDESPREAD MONSOONAL ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF WETTING RAINS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS TODAY WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 15-25%. STARTING ON SUNDAY
AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER AND BOTTOM OUT ABOVE 20-30% AS
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE, AND THUS ALLEVIATING MUCH OF THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL OUTFLOWS/THUNDERSTORM
WINDS, WINDS SHOULD FAVOR DIURNAL TRENDS WITH THE TYPICAL
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS AROUND 20-25 MPH.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ539-551-553-554-559.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LOJERO
LONG TERM...LOJERO
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...LOJERO
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