233
FXUS65 KPSR 112004
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
104 PM MST SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT RISK.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTANT OUTFLOWS
TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
- DEEPER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY WITH ELEVATED
RAINFALL CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
HAS CONTINUED TO MIGRATE ITS WAY NORTHWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS PROGRESSION HAS FLIPPED THE FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING FOR MUCH BETTER MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THOUGH PARTS OF ARIZONA HAVE OCCASIONALLY SEEN
RAIN SINCE JUNE, WITH FREQUENCY INCREASING OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO,
THE PATTERN THAT IS SETTING UP IS THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER WE HAVE
SEEN A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON SETUP.
FOR TODAY, EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY
WHERE IS HAS BEEN SINCE THE FRONT HALF OF THIS PAST WORK WEEK, ALONG
PARTS OF THE RIM, OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT, BETTER
THERMODYNAMICS, AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
LIFESPANS, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
TOWARD THE LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF DESERT
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE CONFINES OF THE TUCSON CWA. A
LOW END CHANCE (~20%) DOES EXIST TO SEE A QUICK SHOWER OR STORM
OVER OUR PORTION OF PINAL COUNTY, SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS FLORENCE, COOLIDGE, AND EVEN CASA GRANDE TO
EXPERIENCE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE GREATER AND MORE FAR
REACHING IMPACT WILL BE FROM A POTENTIAL OUTFLOW PUSHED OUT BY THE
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEASTERN AZ AND MOVING UP THROUGH PINAL AND
MARICOPA COUNTIES. MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS FEATURE WOULD BE GUSTY
WINDS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH, AND AREAS OF DENSE BLOWING DUST
THAT COULD DROP VISIBILITY TO 1 MILE AND BELOW AT TIMES. IF YOU
PLAN TO TRAVEL ALONG THE I-8 AND I-10 CORRIDORS THIS EVENING, BE
PREPARED FOR POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE
STRONG SIGNAL OF A ROBUST OUTFLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED DUST IMPACTS,
A BLOWING DUSTY ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PINAL AND SOUTHERN
MARICOPA COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE PHOENIX METRO IS NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY, REDUCED VISIBILITY STILL MAY OBSERVED
DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE BOUNDARY BECOMES.
THIS EVENINGS ACTIVITY WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR FURTHER, AND
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY, THANKS TO THE INTRODUCTION
OF BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THIS, COMBINED WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE GETTING PUMPED IN THANKS TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF
THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SEE GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TYPICAL MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS, BUT ALSO THE LOWER DESERTS. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE
MONSOON, NOT EVERYWHERE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE RAINFALL,
BUT CURRENT POPS INDICATE SOME OF THE BEST CHANCES (30-40% FOR
THE DESERTS EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER, 50-70% FOR FOOTHILL AND
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN AZ) WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS
SUMMER. CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOR WESTERN MARICOPA, LA PAZ, AND
YUMA COUNTIES WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON COLLIDING OUTFLOWS, BUT
HI-RES DATA POINTS TOWARD THIS OUTCOME, THIS IS LIKELY WHY RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS, EVEN AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN AND
INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, STRONG WINDS GREATER THAN 35 MPH, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
BLOWING DUST FOR SOME LOCATIONS. IT ISN'T OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME STORMS EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HREF
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES INDICATE 10- 30% CHANCE OF WINDS
EXCEEDING 58 MPH, AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONCURS AS THEY
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (15%) OF
STORMS GENERATING SEVERE LEVEL WINDS. SMALL HAIL CAN'T BE RULED
EITHER OUT WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF CAPE WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE.
EVEN THOUGH ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHTS THIS WEEKEND WILL NOT DRAMATICALLY
DIFFERENT FROM WHAT SEE SAW THIS PAST WEEK WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL
CONSISTENTLY HITTING BETWEEN 110-115 DEGREES, AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER, LIKELY A RESULT OF THE
INCREASING MOISTURE. READINGS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS HOVERING BETWEEN 104-111 DEGREES.
HOWEVER, THE HUMIDITY GIVETH, HUMIDITY TAKETH AWAY AS THAT EXTRA
MOISTURE WILL COUNTERACT ANY TEMPERATURE DECREASES BY MAKING IT FEEL
HOTTER THAN WAS IS OBSERVED. MODERATE HEATRISK WILL REMAIN
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, SO HEAT PRECAUTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE EXERCISED IF PLANS TAKE YOU OUTSIDE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN SETUP AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
REPOSITIONING ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS OVERALL PATTERN SETUP WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, HELPING WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST EPS AND GEFS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS
STAYING ABOVE 1.5" THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL
MIXING RATIOS REMAINING ABOVE 10-12 G/KG. THEREFORE, CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH DAILY VARIATIONS IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE. HEADING TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME INDICATION FROM THE GUIDANCE OF AN EASTERLY
WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH POTENTIALLY APPROACHING THE AREA. HOWEVER,
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF THE TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER, IF THE EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIO COMES TO FRUITION, IT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND THUS THIS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN STEADY STATE AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 106-110 DEGREES, RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK. THE LATEST NBM SHOWS TEMPERATURES
COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS, POTENTIALLY INTO THE LOW 100S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, BY THE END OF THE WEEK
MOST LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IF THE EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIO PANS OUT.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1814Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
BLOWING DUST, REDUCED VSBY, AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY CROSS-RUNWAY
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THIS EVENING. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-25KTS STARTING AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING HIGH
THAT STORMS IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL SEND A STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOWARDS PHOENIX BY THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH BY 03Z AND GUSTS INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO BETWEEN
25-30 KTS AND SOME BLOWING DUST WHICH MAY CAUSE VSBY TO BRIEFLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR IFR. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE SE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS FALLING BELOW 10 KTS. CLOUD BASES
TODAY SHOULD REMAIN AOA 15 KFT WITH PERIODS OF SCT TO AT TIMES BKN
CIGS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SE WINDS AT KIPL WILL PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE MID
TEENS LIKELY. KBLH WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUST SPEEDS, 20-25KTS, DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS READINGS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN DISTRICTS. MORE WIDESPREAD MONSOONAL ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF WETTING RAINS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS TODAY WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 15-25%. STARTING ON SUNDAY
AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER AND BOTTOM OUT ABOVE 20-30% AS
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE, AND THUS ALLEVIATING MUCH OF THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL OUTFLOWS/THUNDERSTORM
WINDS, WINDS SHOULD FAVOR DIURNAL TRENDS WITH THE TYPICAL
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS AROUND 20-25 MPH.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ539-551-553-554-559.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LOJERO
LONG TERM...LOJERO
AVIATION...RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...LOJERO
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