637
FXUS65 KPSR 120006
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
506 PM MST SAT JUL 11 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT RISK.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTANT OUTFLOWS
TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
- DEEPER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY WITH ELEVATED
RAINFALL CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
HAS CONTINUED TO MIGRATE ITS WAY NORTHWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS PROGRESSION HAS FLIPPED THE FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING FOR MUCH BETTER MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THOUGH PARTS OF ARIZONA HAVE OCCASIONALLY SEEN
RAIN SINCE JUNE, WITH FREQUENCY INCREASING OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO,
THE PATTERN THAT IS SETTING UP IS THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER WE HAVE
SEEN A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON SETUP.
FOR TODAY, EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY
WHERE IS HAS BEEN SINCE THE FRONT HALF OF THIS PAST WORK WEEK, ALONG
PARTS OF THE RIM, OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT, BETTER
THERMODYNAMICS, AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
LIFESPANS, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
TOWARD THE LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF DESERT
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE CONFINES OF THE TUCSON CWA. A
LOW END CHANCE (~20%) DOES EXIST TO SEE A QUICK SHOWER OR STORM
OVER OUR PORTION OF PINAL COUNTY, SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS FLORENCE, COOLIDGE, AND EVEN CASA GRANDE TO
EXPERIENCE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE GREATER AND MORE FAR
REACHING IMPACT WILL BE FROM A POTENTIAL OUTFLOW PUSHED OUT BY THE
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEASTERN AZ AND MOVING UP THROUGH PINAL AND
MARICOPA COUNTIES. MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS FEATURE WOULD BE GUSTY
WINDS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH, AND AREAS OF DENSE BLOWING DUST
THAT COULD DROP VISIBILITY TO 1 MILE AND BELOW AT TIMES. IF YOU
PLAN TO TRAVEL ALONG THE I-8 AND I-10 CORRIDORS THIS EVENING, BE
PREPARED FOR POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE
STRONG SIGNAL OF A ROBUST OUTFLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED DUST IMPACTS,
A BLOWING DUSTY ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PINAL AND SOUTHERN
MARICOPA COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE PHOENIX METRO IS NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY, REDUCED VISIBILITY STILL MAY OBSERVED
DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE BOUNDARY BECOMES.
THIS EVENINGS ACTIVITY WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR FURTHER, AND
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY, THANKS TO THE INTRODUCTION
OF BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THIS, COMBINED WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE GETTING PUMPED IN THANKS TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF
THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SEE GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TYPICAL MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS, BUT ALSO THE LOWER DESERTS. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE
MONSOON, NOT EVERYWHERE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE RAINFALL,
BUT CURRENT POPS INDICATE SOME OF THE BEST CHANCES (30-40% FOR
THE DESERTS EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER, 50-70% FOR FOOTHILL AND
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN AZ) WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS
SUMMER. CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOR WESTERN MARICOPA, LA PAZ, AND
YUMA COUNTIES WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON COLLIDING OUTFLOWS, BUT
HI-RES DATA POINTS TOWARD THIS OUTCOME, THIS IS LIKELY WHY RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS, EVEN AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN AND
INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, STRONG WINDS GREATER THAN 35 MPH, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
BLOWING DUST FOR SOME LOCATIONS. IT ISN'T OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME STORMS EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HREF
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES INDICATE 10- 30% CHANCE OF WINDS
EXCEEDING 58 MPH, AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONCURS AS THEY
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (15%) OF
STORMS GENERATING SEVERE LEVEL WINDS. SMALL HAIL CAN'T BE RULED
EITHER OUT WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF CAPE WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE.
EVEN THOUGH ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHTS THIS WEEKEND WILL NOT DRAMATICALLY
DIFFERENT FROM WHAT SEE SAW THIS PAST WEEK WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL
CONSISTENTLY HITTING BETWEEN 110-115 DEGREES, AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER, LIKELY A RESULT OF THE
INCREASING MOISTURE. READINGS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS HOVERING BETWEEN 104-111 DEGREES.
HOWEVER, THE HUMIDITY GIVETH, HUMIDITY TAKETH AWAY AS THAT EXTRA
MOISTURE WILL COUNTERACT ANY TEMPERATURE DECREASES BY MAKING IT FEEL
HOTTER THAN WAS IS OBSERVED. MODERATE HEATRISK WILL REMAIN
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, SO HEAT PRECAUTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE EXERCISED IF PLANS TAKE YOU OUTSIDE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN SETUP AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
REPOSITIONING ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS OVERALL PATTERN SETUP WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, HELPING WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST EPS AND GEFS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS
STAYING ABOVE 1.5" THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL
MIXING RATIOS REMAINING ABOVE 10-12 G/KG. THEREFORE, CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH DAILY VARIATIONS IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE. HEADING TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME INDICATION FROM THE GUIDANCE OF AN EASTERLY
WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH POTENTIALLY APPROACHING THE AREA. HOWEVER,
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF THE TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER, IF THE EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIO COMES TO FRUITION, IT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND THUS THIS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN STEADY STATE AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 106-110 DEGREES, RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK. THE LATEST NBM SHOWS TEMPERATURES
COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS, POTENTIALLY INTO THE LOW 100S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, BY THE END OF THE WEEK
MOST LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IF THE EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIO PANS OUT.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0005Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
BLOWING DUST/HAZE, REDUCED VSBY, AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY CROSS-
RUNWAY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THIS EVENING.
CURRENT WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20KT. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT STORMS IN SE ARIZONA WILL SEND A STRONG OUTFLOW
TOWARDS PHOENIX THIS EVENING WITH AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO S'RLY WINDS
BETWEEN 02-04Z (~03Z FOR KPHX). THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BRING
WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
AROUND 30-35KT WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE OUTFLOW MOVING
THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, S'RLY WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY
BRING AREAS OF BLDU AND HZ TO THE REGION CAUSING VSBY TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OUT OF THE SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SPEEDS
FALLING BELOW 10 KTS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE WINDS GO BACK WESTERLY BY THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD BASES TODAY SHOULD REMAIN AOA 15 KFT
WITH PERIODS OF SCT TO AT TIMES BKN CIGS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TOMORROW NIGHT A COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOVING OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
TOWARDS THE PHOENIX METRO. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER, WE ARE
EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
AROUND 23-01Z TOMORROW NIGHT AND HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE
KPHX TAF. AS THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES INTO THE METRO, WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NE. WITH NE'RLY WINDS, NO
REDUCTIONS IN VIS FROM BLDU/HZ ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, WIND
GUSTS UP AROUND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE AS THE OUTFLOW INITIALLY MOVES
THROUGH, THEN WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO A 20-25 KT
RANGE. VCTS HAS ALSO BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE TAF WITH SHRA/TSRA
BEING LEFT OUT FOR NOW DUE TO THE CONFIDENCE BEING LOWER WITH HOW
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH HZ AT KBLH TOMORROW MORNING.
ANOTHER STRONG COMPLEX OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SONORA MEXICO
AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ANOTHER STRONG OUTFLOW NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS KBLH. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS IN THE 12-17 KT RANGE EXPECTED
INITIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO
DROP TO AROUND 5SM WITH HZ DURING THE 11-13Z TIMEFRAME. OUTSIDE
THIS OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THE WHOLE PERIOD. CURRENT
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25KT WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET. WIND SPEEDS
WILL THEN PICKUP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KT. AT KIPL, SIMILAR TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, NO REDUCTION IN VIS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
MORNING. WHILE THE OUTFLOW MAY REACH THE TERMINAL, IT WOULD LIKELY
ONLY INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND 10-15KT FOR A COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SE THROUGH THE WHOLE
PERIOD. CURRENT GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND
SUNSET. SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN THROUGH OUT THE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS READINGS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN DISTRICTS. MORE WIDESPREAD MONSOONAL ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF WETTING RAINS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS TODAY WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 15-25%. STARTING ON SUNDAY
AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER AND BOTTOM OUT ABOVE 20-30% AS
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE, AND THUS ALLEVIATING MUCH OF THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL OUTFLOWS/THUNDERSTORM
WINDS, WINDS SHOULD FAVOR DIURNAL TRENDS WITH THE TYPICAL
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS AROUND 20-25 MPH.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ539-
551-553-554-559.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LOJERO
LONG TERM...LOJERO
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...LOJERO
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