473
FXUS65 KPSR 122022
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
122 PM MST SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF SOUTHCENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH HIGHER
CHANCES FOR STORMS SURVIVING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MARICOPA AND
PINAL COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
- WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, DAILY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT RISK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH HAS PROGRESSED
EVEN FURTHER TO THE NORTH, NOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS NORTHERLY PROGRESSION HAS RESULTED IN A MORE
TRADITIONAL MONSOON SETUP FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST DAY
OR SO, WITH A LOT OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA SEEING STRONG STORMS AND
EVEN FLASH FLOODING YESTERDAY EVENING. WITH EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW NOW FIRMLY IN PLACE, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.
STARTING WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS RIPE
FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, NOT ONLY FOR OUR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS, BUT FOR THE LOWER DESERTS EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER AS
WELL. THE TYPICAL EVOLUTION WILL TAKE PLACE WITH STORMS FIRING
OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS BEFORE DESCENDING TOWARD THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CELLS RIDE WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ONCE THOSE STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN, THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLEX AS FURTHER
CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON
THE STRENGTH OF ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS, AND WHETHER OR NOT MULTIPLE
BOUNDARIES CAN COLLIDE. AREAS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AROUND THE
PHOENIX METRO WILL SEE THEIR BEST CHANCES (30-40%) FOR RAINFALL
SO FAR THIS SUMMER, BUT IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT NOT EVERYONE
WILL SEE RAIN BASED ON THE HIT AND MISS NATURE OF MONSOONAL STORMS
AND THE UNKNOWN OF WHERE STORMS WILL COLLIDE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL THERE WILL BE A BOUNDARY INTERACTION SOMEWHERE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF MARICOPA COUNTY, WHICH WOULD HELP SET OFF
A CHAIN OF FURTHER STORMS AND OUTFLOWS THAT COULD STRETCH INTO LA
PAZ AND YUMA COUNTIES FURTHER INTO THE EVENING.
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE LOWER DESERTS, POTENTIAL
BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO OVERCOME SOME MLCIN TO THE TUNE OF
50-75 J/KG, BUT IF THEY CAN, THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT, THE SPC HAS PLACED AN
AREA ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER, INDICATING A 15% CHANCE TO SEE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH AT A GIVEN POINT. FORECASTED DCAPE VALUES SUPPORTS SUCH
PROBABILITIES AS 1300 TO POTENTIALLY 1700 J/KG IS FORECASTED,
INDICATING A VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING OUTFLOWS.
THANKFULLY, NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE WINDS REACH SEVERE MAGNITUDES,
BUT ENHANCED GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 35 MPH COULD BE MUCH MORE COMMON
ACROSS GILA, MARICOPA, AND PINAL COUNTIES. HREF NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES GIVE A 70-90% CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING THIS
THRESHOLD WITHIN A 25 MILE RADIUS OF ANY POINT IN THE COUNTIES
LISTED. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ENHANCED WINDS OVER
DUST PRONE AREAS OF PINAL AND SOUTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY, A BLOWING
DUST ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENING. IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL ALONG I-8 OR I-10, PREPARE FOR
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AS VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO 1 MILE AND
BELOW AT TIMES. THOUGH CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 5%, SOME SMALL HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS, AS THERE IS SOME
CAPE LOCATED WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE THANKS TO SOME RELATIVELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT LESS ACTIVE IN TERMS OF CONVECTION,
ESPECIALLY FOR LOWER DESERT AREAS, BUT THAT IS NOT UNUSUAL IN THE
WAKE OF MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE THE DAY BEFORE. AS OF NOW,
TYPICAL MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL AREAS EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO WILL
SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES.
TERRAIN WILL ALSO PLAY A FACTOR IN SPARKING SOME ACTIVITY OVER THE
NEAR JOSHUA TREE NP AND POTNENTIALLY THE KOFAS AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME AS THESE AREAS GET IN ON SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, PRIMARILY OF
MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTIES, THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS ON WHAT
MAY OCCUR AS SOME GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS ANOTHER ACTIVE EVENING,
WHILE OTHERS POINT TOWARD ALMOST NOTHING. UPDATED POPS LEAN
TOWARD THE LATTER OUTCOME AS VALUES HAVE DROPPED FROM WHERE THEY
WERE 24 HOURS AGO, BUT IF ACTIVITY TONIGHT IS NOT AS ROBUST AS
EXPECTED, ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD DESTABILIZE
ENOUGH TO SEE MORE CONVECTION SPROUT UP TOMORROW.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, DAILY HIGHS WILL HOVER NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL, TRANSLATING TO READINGS BETWEEN 104-109 DEGREES. PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE (BY DESERT STANDARDS) WILL MAKE INSOLATION LESS EFFICIENT
AT HEATING US UP, BUT IN TURN, THE INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT
FEEL HOTTER, WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING TOWARD 110-115 DEGREES.
MODERATE HEATRISK WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, SO IF PLANS TAKE YOU OUTSIDE, BE SURE TO EXERCISE HEAT
PRECAUTIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THERE IS STILL EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITHIN THE EPS AND GEFS MEMBERS
REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE RETROGRADING OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE OVERALL POSITION
OF THE 500 MB HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, HELPING ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST EPS AND
GEFS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS HOVERING AROUND 1.5"-1.8" THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WEEK WITH LOW-LEVEL MIXING RATIOS REMAINING BETWEEN 10-12
G/KG. THEREFORE, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH VARIATIONS IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE.
BOTH THE MEAN OF THE EPS AND GEFS SHOW AN UPTICK IN QPF ACROSS THE
REGION BY THE END OF THIS WEEK DUE TO AN EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. IF THIS OCCURS, THIS
TROUGHING FEATURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
POTENTIALLY INTRODUCE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
AZ. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN STEADY STATE AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 102-110 DEGREES, RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK. THE NBM CONTINUES TO INDICATE
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS BY FRIDAY. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASED SIGNAL
FOR THICKER CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1818Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND TS IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SPEEDS HOVERING AROUND 10KTS WITH
PERIODS OF GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS WHERE AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE NE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE METRO AS
EARLY AS 22-00Z BUT MOST LIKELY AROUND 00-03Z AS IS REFLECTED IN
THE TAF. WIND GUSTS DURING THIS TIME REMAIN IN HIGH AGREEMENT
(70-90%) THAT SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
PHOENIX METRO. UNFORTUNATELY CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON LOCATIONS
WHERE NEW STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP AND THE COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL
STORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE OUTFLOWS. AS SUCH, CONTINUED THE
PROB30 GROUP AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS. A STRONG OUTFLOW OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING BLOWING DUST AND THUS
CAUSING REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY, BUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST, VIS RESTRICTIONS, AND HAZY CONDITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY AT KIWA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SCT- BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WHERE FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (050-060 KFT) WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS AT KIPL WILL REMAIN SE'RLY WITH WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 8-14
KTS, WITH A PERIOD OF POSSIBLE GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS NEAR
10-13Z TOMORROW MORNING. KBLH WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUT OF THE
ESE, OTHERWISE CONTINUING TEETERING BETWEEN SSW AND SSE WITH
SPEEDS HOVERING AROUND 10 KTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN SCT-BKN, WITH
BASES MOSTLY ABOVE 15 KFT AGL.
FIRE WEATHER
SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS READINGS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A THREAT OF STRONG WINDS. DAILY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WETTING RAINFALL INCREASING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN LATER IN
THE WEEK. DUE TO INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN A 20-30% RANGE WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE
FAIR TO GOOD, OR BETWEEN 40-70%. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
DRIVEN OUTFLOW, WINDS SHOULD FAVOR DIURNAL TRENDS WITH THE TYPICAL
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS AROUND 20-25 MPH.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ539-553-554-559.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...SALERNO
AVIATION...RYAN/WHITTOCK
FIRE WEATHER...SALERNO
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