662
FXUS65 KPSR 130557
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1057 PM MST SUN JUL 12 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF SOUTHCENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH HIGHER
CHANCES FOR STORMS SURVIVING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MARICOPA AND
PINAL COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
- WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, DAILY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT RISK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH HAS
PROGRESSED EVEN FURTHER TO THE NORTH, NOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN
WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS NORTHERLY PROGRESSION HAS
RESULTED IN A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON SETUP FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO, WITH A LOT OF SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA SEEING STRONG STORMS AND EVEN FLASH FLOODING YESTERDAY
EVENING. WITH EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NOW FIRMLY IN PLACE,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GOING ANYWHERE
ANYTIME SOON.
STARTING WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
RIPE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, NOT ONLY FOR OUR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS, BUT FOR THE LOWER DESERTS EAST OF THE COLORADO
RIVER AS WELL. THE TYPICAL EVOLUTION WILL TAKE PLACE WITH STORMS
FIRING OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS BEFORE DESCENDING TOWARD THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CELLS RIDE WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ONCE THOSE STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN, THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLEX AS FURTHER
CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON
THE STRENGTH OF ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS, AND WHETHER OR NOT MULTIPLE
BOUNDARIES CAN COLLIDE. AREAS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AROUND THE
PHOENIX METRO WILL SEE THEIR BEST CHANCES (30-40%) FOR RAINFALL SO
FAR THIS SUMMER, BUT IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE RAIN BASED ON THE HIT AND MISS NATURE OF MONSOONAL STORMS AND
THE UNKNOWN OF WHERE STORMS WILL COLLIDE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL THERE WILL BE A BOUNDARY INTERACTION SOMEWHERE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF MARICOPA COUNTY, WHICH WOULD HELP SET OFF
A CHAIN OF FURTHER STORMS AND OUTFLOWS THAT COULD STRETCH INTO LA
PAZ AND YUMA COUNTIES FURTHER INTO THE EVENING.
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE LOWER DESERTS, POTENTIAL
BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO OVERCOME SOME MLCIN TO THE TUNE OF
50-75 J/KG, BUT IF THEY CAN, THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT, THE SPC HAS PLACED AN
AREA ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER, INDICATING A 15% CHANCE TO SEE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH
AT A GIVEN POINT. FORECASTED DCAPE VALUES SUPPORTS SUCH
PROBABILITIES AS 1300 TO POTENTIALLY 1700 J/KG IS FORECASTED,
INDICATING A VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING OUTFLOWS.
THANKFULLY, NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE WINDS REACH SEVERE MAGNITUDES,
BUT ENHANCED GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 35 MPH COULD BE MUCH MORE COMMON
ACROSS GILA, MARICOPA, AND PINAL COUNTIES. HREF NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES GIVE A 70-90% CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING THIS
THRESHOLD WITHIN A 25 MILE RADIUS OF ANY POINT IN THE COUNTIES
LISTED. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ENHANCED WINDS OVER DUST
PRONE AREAS OF PINAL AND SOUTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY, A BLOWING DUST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENING. IF
YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL ALONG I-8 OR I-10, PREPARE FOR HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS AS VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO 1 MILE AND BELOW AT
TIMES. THOUGH CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 5%, SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS, AS THERE IS SOME CAPE
LOCATED WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE THANKS TO SOME RELATIVELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT LESS ACTIVE IN TERMS OF CONVECTION,
ESPECIALLY FOR LOWER DESERT AREAS, BUT THAT IS NOT UNUSUAL IN THE
WAKE OF MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE THE DAY BEFORE. AS OF NOW,
TYPICAL MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL AREAS EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO WILL
SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES.
TERRAIN WILL ALSO PLAY A FACTOR IN SPARKING SOME ACTIVITY OVER THE
NEAR JOSHUA TREE NP AND POTENTIALLY THE KOFAS AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME AS THESE AREAS GET IN ON SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, PRIMARILY OF
MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTIES, THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS ON WHAT
MAY OCCUR AS SOME GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS ANOTHER ACTIVE EVENING,
WHILE OTHERS POINT TOWARD ALMOST NOTHING. UPDATED POPS LEAN
TOWARD THE LATTER OUTCOME AS VALUES HAVE DROPPED FROM WHERE THEY
WERE 24 HOURS AGO, BUT IF ACTIVITY TONIGHT IS NOT AS ROBUST AS
EXPECTED, ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD DESTABILIZE
ENOUGH TO SEE MORE CONVECTION SPROUT UP TOMORROW.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, DAILY HIGHS WILL HOVER NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL, TRANSLATING TO READINGS BETWEEN 104-109 DEGREES.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE (BY DESERT STANDARDS) WILL MAKE INSOLATION LESS
EFFICIENT AT HEATING US UP, BUT IN TURN, THE INCREASED HUMIDITY
WILL MAKE IT FEEL HOTTER, WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING TOWARD
110-115 DEGREES. MODERATE HEATRISK WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SO IF PLANS TAKE YOU OUTSIDE, BE SURE TO
EXERCISE HEAT PRECAUTIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THERE IS STILL EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITHIN THE EPS AND GEFS
MEMBERS REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
RETROGRADING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE OVERALL POSITION OF THE 500 MB HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, HELPING ENHANCE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST EPS AND GEFS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS
HOVERING AROUND 1.5"-1.8" THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH LOW-LEVEL
MIXING RATIOS REMAINING BETWEEN 10-12 G/KG. THEREFORE, CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH VARIATIONS IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE. BOTH THE MEAN OF THE EPS
AND GEFS SHOW AN UPTICK IN QPF ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF
THIS WEEK DUE TO AN EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHING THE
AREA BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. IF THIS OCCURS, THIS TROUGHING FEATURE
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY INTRODUCE A
RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY STATE AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY BETWEEN 102-110 DEGREES, RESULTING IN THE
CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK. THE NBM CONTINUES TO
INDICATE TEMPERATURES COOLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY FRIDAY. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
INCREASED SIGNAL FOR THICKER CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0556Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
LINGERING REGIONAL SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE
PHOENIX AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS RESULTED IN A LOW
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AN EASTERLY SHIFT IS FAVORED BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER 07Z, FOLLOWED BY AN EARLY SW SHIFT BY NOON MONDAY.
MODELS INDICATE AN EARLIER STORM INITIATION TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON,
AS EARLY AS 19-20Z, IN THE MOUNTAIN JUST EAST OF PHOENIX, WHICH
MAY LEAD TO AN EARLIER OUTFLOW PROGRESSION INTO THE METRO AREA BY
23-00Z. VCTS/TSRA CHANCES REMAIN LOW, AROUND 20-30%. OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAZY SKIES FROM LOFTED DUST MAY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND DEGRADE SLANTWISE VISIBILITY. CLOUD BASES WILL MOSTLY
STAY ABOVE 8-10K FT AGL.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
WINDS AT KIPL WILL FAVOR A SE'RLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. KBLH WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT FROM A DISTANT THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. SPEEDS OTHERWISE WILL HOVER AROUND 5-10
KTS. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR AN AREA OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WITH AN
EMBEDDED STORM TO PROGRESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA MONDAY
MORNING. BEST TIMING LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12-20Z. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SOME GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS, WITH BASES MOSTLY ABOVE
10K FT AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS READINGS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A THREAT OF STRONG WINDS. DAILY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WETTING RAINFALL INCREASING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN LATER IN
THE WEEK. DUE TO INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN A 20-30% RANGE WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE
FAIR TO GOOD, OR BETWEEN 40-70%. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
DRIVEN OUTFLOW, WINDS SHOULD FAVOR DIURNAL TRENDS WITH THE TYPICAL
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS AROUND 20-25 MPH.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...SALERNO
AVIATION...BENEDICT
FIRE WEATHER...SALERNO
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