622
FXUS65 KPSR 151800
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1100 AM MST WED JUL 15 2026
UPDATE
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
WHERE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- A DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ARIZONA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL LATER THIS WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AMPLE MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA IN COMBINATION WITH AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE ACTIVE
MONSOON WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
REMAINS PLANTED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A BROAD AREA OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AND
NORTHERN MEXICO WITH MULTIPLE EASTERLY WAVES FROM THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY TO JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP IS
A BIT UNCOMMON AND DOESN'T HAPPEN EVERY YEAR, BUT IT IS LIKELY TO
BRING QUITE ACTIVE MONSOON WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS MESSY WITH A DISTURBANCE CENTERED
OVER BAJA MOVING AWAY FROM ARIZONA, A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA, AND A
LARGER EASTERLY WAVE OVER WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. PWATS
HAVE IMPROVED TO 1.5-1.75" OVER THE LOWER DESERTS TO 1.0-1.3" OVER
THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN, OR 125-150% OF NORMAL FOR MID JULY. AS
EXPECTED, YESTERDAY WAS A QUIETER DAY AFTER THE LARGE COMPLEX THAT
UPENDED THE ATMOSPHERE PROFILE ON MONDAY. WEAK, BUT PERSISTENT
EAST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
INCREASING PWATS TO AROUND 2" OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY
FRIDAY.
FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, MODEST
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED PUSHING MUCAPE TO UPWARDS OF 750-1000
J/KG OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN, BUT CLOSER TO 500 J/KG INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM INTO THE WHITE MTNS AND OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. A 5-10 KT
NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE ENOUGH TO SHIFT SOME
OF THE STORM ACTIVITY TOWARD THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER
DESERTS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT WITH OVERALL LOW
INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
STRUGGLE. OUTFLOW COLLISIONS DRIVING ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR WITH GUIDANCE POINTING AT THIS HAPPENING SOMEWHERE
SOUTHWEST OF PHOENIX, BUT IN REALITY IT COULD HAPPEN OVER PHOENIX
TOO. FORECAST DCAPES FOR THE AREA HAVE IMPROVED ENOUGH TO WORRY
ABOUT SOME GUSTY DOWNDRAFT/OUTFLOW WINDS, BUT THEY SHOULD BE SUB-
SEVERE. BLOWING DUST SHOULD AGAIN BE AN ISSUE FOR SOME AREAS WITH
GUIDANCE FAVORING AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MARICOPA INTO YUMA/LA PAZ
COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING. STORM MOVEMENT LOOKS TO BE FAST ENOUGH
TO NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT MUCH, BUT ANY
TRAINING OF STORMS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
OVER AN INCH.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL
MOST LIKELY INVOLVE POCKETS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. THE
EASTERLY WAVE OVER TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT FARTHER WESTWARD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, LIKELY STALLING OUT
NEAR EL PASO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO HELP DRIVE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NEW MEXICO WHICH WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT OVER ARIZONA, BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
TO BRING MORE THAN THE TYPICAL DAILY MONSOON AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS MOISTURE LEVELS PEAK LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN.
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF AN ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR THE AREA. WPC CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE SLIGHT RISK
AREA ON THEIR DAY 2 AND DAY 3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS,
ENCOMPASSING ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF ARIZONA. AS PWATS
PUSH 2" STARTING THURSDAY, ANY DEEPER CONVECTION THAT MAY FORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3" PER
HOUR. THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT IT COULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF
FRIDAY IF THE WEAK TO MODEST ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY CAN HOLD. WE
SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF DETAILS OF THIS POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS MORE HI-RES MODEL DATA
BECOMES AVAILABLE.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH THE MOST OPPRESSIVE
CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY WITH FORECAST HIGHS 110-113 DEGREES TODAY AND 107-111
DEGREES THURSDAY. ADDING IN THE HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
60S, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 113-118 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED BOTH
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS BAD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WITH FORECAST HIGHS OF 104-108 DEGREES TODAY IN PHOENIX
BEFORE QUICKLY DIPPING TO BELOW NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY, DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED BE IN THE
90S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MODERATE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS STILL AN ISSUE FOR THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS DAY-TO-DAY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST. SOME SLIGHT DRYING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
EASTERLY WAVE TO OUR EAST SOUTHEAST GRADUALLY WEAKENS IS LIKELY TO
BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES COMPARED TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT
THAT DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL NOT BE ACTIVE IN SOME AREAS. AS OF
RIGHT NOW, GUIDANCE IS FAVORING THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH DAILY POPS OF 50-70%. AN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW IS
ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST WHICH WILL ENABLE AT LEAST SOME CHANCES
(20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THIS
WEEKEND. LINGERING ASCENT ALSO LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FROM
THE EASTERLY WAVE, ALTHOUGH THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO BENEFIT FAR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS GUIDANCE IS SHIFTING WHERE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER MAY
BE AND WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE WILL IMPACT OUR
REGION. THERE SEEMS TO AT LEAST BE SOME AGREEMENT IN GRADUALLY
SHIFTING THE HIGH CENTER SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOMEWHERE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES OR CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT WHERE IT
GOES THEREAFTER IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THE GEFS FAVORS THE HIGH
CENTER SETTLING ANYWHERE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO INTO
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, WHILE THE EPS SHOWS IT MORE OVER NEW MEXICO
INTO WESTERN TEXAS. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS STILL LIKELY TO
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE AS FAR AS STORM POTENTIAL, AND COULD EVEN BE VERY
ACTIVE IF THE EASTERLY WAVE BECOMES A BIG FACTOR. HOWEVER, THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK MAY INVOLVE A DECREASE IN MONSOON
ACTIVITY IF THE HIGH CENTER TRULY MOVES CLOSER TO OR INTO
ARIZONA.
NBM TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF ARIZONA AND LIKELY PERSISTING BUT
GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH MOST DAYS SEEING LITTLE
MONSOON CONVECTION.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1800Z.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG TS IMPACTS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERNS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES LOOK
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING SOMETIME BETWEEN 23-03Z, THOUGH WHAT
DIRECTION THEY MAY ORIGINATE FROM REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
ELECTED TO KEEP TAFS CONSISTENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
PREVENT FREQUENT PLANNING CHANGES, BUT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO MULTIPLE UPDATES SHOULD BE
EXPECTED. VCTS/TS WILL FOLLOW SOON AFTER, BUT THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE SURROUNDING DIRECT IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS. PROB30
GROUPS REMAIN AT EACH SITE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WHAT
DIRECTION WINDS WILL FAVOR AFTER THIS INITIAL WAVE OF ACTIVITY
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE DIRECTION OF THE DOMINANT OUTFLOW. IN
THE MEANTIME, WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS WITH
PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.
LINGERING VCSH/VCTS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH 09Z, BUT WHERE THIS
ACTIVITY SETS UP AND ITS RESIDENCE TIME IS ANOTHER FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY. THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LESS
IMPACTFUL THAN THE PREVIOUS CONVECTION, BUT COULD RESULT IN
REDUCED VIS UNDER HEAVIER RAINFALL AND ERRATIC WINDS. THE
EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS THAT EXTENDED PERIODS OF VRB
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SE WINDS WILL BE COMMON AT KIPL, THOUGH A BRIEF SWITCH OF THE W/SW
THIS EVENING CAN'T BE RULED OUT. S/SW'RLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT
KBLH WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ACTIVE MONSOON WEATHER WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN DISTRICTS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN DISTRICTS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN DISTRICTS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MINRHS WILL IMPROVE FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, INCREASING FROM 20-35% TODAY TO 30-50% BY FRIDAY. OUTSIDE
OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS, WINDS FOR THE EASTERN
DISTRICTS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT FAVOR DIURNAL TRENDS.
WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY FAVOR THE SOUTH WHILE BECOMING BREEZY
STARTING THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ530-532.
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ562-563-
565>567-569-570.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page