654
FXUS65 KPSR 171054
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
354 AM MST FRI JUL 17 2026
UPDATE...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
ISOLATED CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TYPICAL MONSOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN FAVOR THE ARIZONA
HIGH TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA
TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
MAINTAINS NEAR NORMAL READINGS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER DESERT CHANCES BY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A WEAKENING MCS IS CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE PHOENIX FOOTHILLS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF PHOENIX. RAINFALL RATES HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY SINCE LAST EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STAYING UNDER 0.25" HOUR. A POCKET OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER REMAINS FARTHER TO THE NORTH BETWEEN PHOENIX
AND FLAGSTAFF. DESPITE THE MODEST ASCENT STILL IN PLACE, THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME LESS AND LESS UNSTABLE. HI-RES CAMS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH
SUNRISE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FROM
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN MARICOPA
COUNTY. WE ARE EXPECTING TO ALLOW THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 12Z
EVEN THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. GIVEN THE LOW INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT AND THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS THAT IS LIKELY TO LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ENOUGH TO SPARK
OFF MUCH IF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
START TO WORK INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND THEN CENTRAL ARIZONA LATER
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE HIGHS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARIZONA SHOULD
TOP 100 DEGREES UNDER AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
GUIDANCE IS FINALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE DRYING SHOULD EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA THAT SATURDAY WILL BE AN OVERALL
QUIET WEATHER DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN, BUT THE CHANCE OF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY
SURVIVING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS IS NO MORE THAN 10%. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER ON SATURDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE
PHOENIX AREA, BUT HIGHER THAN TYPICAL HUMIDITIES WILL STILL MAKE
IT FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WILL UNDERGO
SOME WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS IT FINALLY
DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD CLOSER TO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE AN OVERALL QUIET DAY AS MOISTURE SHOULD STILL BE
LIMITED, BUT WITH INCREASING HIGHER LEVEL ASCENT ANY CONVECTION
THAT BUILDS OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN SHOULD BE MORE ROBUST.
SOME GUIDANCE IS EVEN HINTING AT PUSHING SOME RAIN INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS AT SOME POINT SUNDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THAT IS
OF LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT.
BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE EASTERLY WAVE IS LIKELY TO BE MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WITH MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SPREADING OVER
THE REGION AGAIN ON MONDAY. WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA FOR LOWER DESERT CONVECTION TO OCCUR ON MONDAY IS
STILL UNKNOWN, BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON DAY. WE
MAY EVEN HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT SEVERE WIND THREAT BY AROUND TUESDAY
AS MID LEVEL WINDS ARE SHOWN TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO POSE A THREAT
FOR LONGER LASTING STORMS AND/OR MCS DEVELOPING AND MAKING IT OFF
THE HIGH TERRAIN. OF COURSE, THIS IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE EASTERLY
WAVE. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE EVENTUALLY MOVING TO OUR WEST
BY NEXT THURSDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FAVORED TO BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO OR TEXAS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
SOUTH AND WEST THE HIGH SETS UP, WE MAY BE IN FOR ANOTHER DRIER
AND HOT MONSOON PERIOD BY NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES LOOK DECENT FOR
AT LEAST A DOWNTREND IN RAIN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK OR BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS GUIDANCE FAVORS THE GRADUAL DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY CREEP UPWARD NEXT WEEK,
BUT LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE WESTERN LOWER DESERTS ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE NORMAL
RANGE MUCH OF THE WEEK. IF THE RIDGE DOES EVENTUALLY SET UP JUST
TO OUR EAST, WE MAY EVENTUALLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH HIGHS TOPPING 110
DEGREES AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1050Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
AREA RADARS INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS TAPERING DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION, HOWEVER THERE COULD STILL BE ISOLATED SHRA/VCSH OVER THE
METRO TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (<20%) OF ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN OVERALL TIMING AND COVERAGE. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH A LATER THAN USUAL SW SHIFT ANTICIPATED AT KPHX BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SCT-BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AOA 10 KFT WILL BE COMMON
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH A SCT CU FIELD AROUND 6-8 KFT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECKS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY AT KBLH.
SPEEDS AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE ARIZONA
DISTRICTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCES INTO
WESTERN DISTRICTS. ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL STILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRYING BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. ELEVATED SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE PERIOD FOR THE WESTERN
DISTRICTS WITH LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. ELEVATED HUMIDITIES TODAY
WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS FROM 30% IN WESTERN
DISTRICTS TO 40-50% OVER THE EASTERN DISTRICTS. A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DROP MINRHS TO 20-35% WITH ANY WETTING
RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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