030
FXUS65 KPSR 171954
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1254 PM MST FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
ISOLATED CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TYPICAL MONSOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN FAVOR THE ARIZONA HIGH
TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA
TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
MAINTAINS NEAR NORMAL READINGS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER DESERT CHANCES BY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SC AZ WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE EAST VALLEY, THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAINS. GOING FROM
LOW TO HIGH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY RECEIVED ONLY
AN AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.05"-0.35", MEANWHILE IN EASTERN MARICOPA
COUNTY AND PINAL COUNTY 24HR ACCUMULATIONS WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN
0.5"-1.25" WITH LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING BETWEEN 2"-2.5" IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THE LATER MORNING HOURS RECEIVED A FEW MORE
LINGERING STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN, WHERE MORE RAINFALL OCCURRED
BUT AS OF THIS DISCUSSION HAVE NOT BEEN TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT FOR
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TOTALS. HI-RES CAMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOPED THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WILL PROGRESSIVELY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WHILE PWATS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5"-2" ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF
THE ENERGY HAS BEEN LOST WITH MUCAPE FALLING TO BETWEEN 500-750
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CLOUD COVERAGE HINDERING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY, ALTHOUGH NOT
IMPOSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO THE NATURAL
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HOWEVER, THIS HAS LEAD TO POPS LATER THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN SC AZ TO BE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY'S
FORECAST PACKAGE, DROPPING FROM 30-40% TO NOW NEAR 10-25%. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES GO FOR THIS AFTERNOON, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS SC AZ, WHILE THE WESTERN LOWER
DESERTS, WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 100S.
BY SATURDAY, BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OVER THE DESERT SW WITH
THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE OVER UT AND NM. WITH
LESS STORM ACTIVITY, AND BROAD RIDGING, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR IN
THE AFTERNOON CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 IN SC AZ AND REMAIN IN THE MID 100S IN THE WESTERN
LOWER DESERTS. AS FAR AS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY, SOME
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN, BUT THE CHANCE OF ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY SURVIVING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS IS NO MORE THAN 10%.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WILL UNDERGO
SOME WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS IT FINALLY
DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD CLOSER TO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE AN OVERALL QUIET DAY AS MOISTURE SHOULD STILL BE
LIMITED, BUT WITH INCREASING HIGHER LEVEL ASCENT ANY CONVECTION THAT
BUILDS OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN SHOULD BE MORE ROBUST. SOME
GUIDANCE IS EVEN HINTING AT PUSHING SOME RAIN INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
AT SOME POINT SUNDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THAT IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT.
BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE EASTERLY WAVE IS LIKELY TO BE MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WITH MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SPREADING OVER
THE REGION AGAIN ON MONDAY. WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO
THE AREA FOR LOWER DESERT CONVECTION TO OCCUR ON MONDAY IS STILL
UNKNOWN, BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON DAY. WE MAY EVEN HAVE
TO WORRY ABOUT SEVERE WIND THREAT BY AROUND TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE SHOWN TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO POSE A THREAT FOR LONGER
LASTING STORMS AND/OR MCS DEVELOPING AND MAKING IT OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN. OF COURSE, THIS IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE EASTERLY WAVE. GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE EVENTUALLY MOVING TO OUR WEST BY NEXT THURSDAY
AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FAVORED TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
NEW MEXICO OR TEXAS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE HIGH
SETS UP, WE MAY BE IN FOR ANOTHER DRIER AND HOT MONSOON PERIOD BY
NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES LOOK DECENT FOR AT LEAST A DOWNTREND IN RAIN
CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK OR BY NEXT WEEKEND AS GUIDANCE FAVORS THE
GRADUAL DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY CREEP UPWARD NEXT WEEK, BUT
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
WESTERN LOWER DESERTS ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE NORMAL RANGE MUCH OF
THE WEEK. IF THE RIDGE DOES EVENTUALLY SET UP JUST TO OUR EAST, WE
MAY EVENTUALLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH HIGHS TOPPING 110 DEGREES AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1730Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH SHRA,
LOWERING CIGS, AND VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS IMPACTING OPERATIONS.
SCATTERED SHRA WILL BE COMMON THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY
CLEARING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MVFR VSBY AND CIGS MAY BRIEFLY
AFFECT TERMINALS WITH ANY SHRA DIRECTLY MOVING OVER THE AIRFIELD.
WHILE EAST WINDS WILL BE PREFERRED INITIALLY, DIRECTIONS MAY BECOME
HIGHLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST CONVINCING
GUIDANCE INDICATING A SWITCH TO NORTHERLY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. TIMING OF ANY DIRECTIONAL CHANGE AND EXACT HEADING CARRY
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
ADDITIONAL SHRA AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS NOT OVERWHELMINGLY
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME. THUS, HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANY VCSH/SHRA
YET, HOWEVER MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE TAF UPDATES.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
FREQUENT MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS. CONFIDENCE IN WINDS IS ONLY MODERATE
WITH A SE COMPONENT PREFERRED AT KIPL AND SOUTH AT KBLH. KIPL
DIRECTIONS MAY TURN SW AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
TSRA OVER BAJA, MEXICO. DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY MAY BECOME COMMON BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE ARIZONA
DISTRICTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCES INTO WESTERN
DISTRICTS. ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL STILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DRYING BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE PERIOD FOR THE WESTERN DISTRICTS WITH
LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. ELEVATED HUMIDITIES TODAY WILL KEEP MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS FROM 30% IN WESTERN DISTRICTS TO 40-50%
OVER THE EASTERN DISTRICTS. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL DROP MINRHS TO 20-35% WITH ANY WETTING RAIN CHANCES FAVORING
THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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