868
FXUS65 KPSR 302038
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
138 PM MST THU JUL 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- IN RESPONSE TO THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS, EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT REGIONWIDE NOW UNTIL MONDAY.
- DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL CONFINE ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS THE CENTER OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH CONTINUING TO HOVER OVER NEW MEXICO AS IT BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN. 500MB RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PEAK HEIGHTS HAVE REACHED
AROUND 597DM, BUT FURTHER AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL PEAK AROUND 598-600DM BY FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TO PUT HOW STRONG
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE INTO PERSPECTIVE. THIS SETUP
WILL TRANSLATE TO VERY HOT CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS BETWEEN 108-116 DEGREES BEING COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT
TODAY AND ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE, EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS
HAVE GONE INTO EFFECT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.
THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HELPED PULL
IN SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR (AT LEAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR),
WHICH HAS GREATLY LIMITED MONSOONAL ACTIVITY POTENTIAL. DEW POINTS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME LOCATIONS EVEN SEEING READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 40S. THIS IS MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO WHERE WE WERE 48 HOURS
AGO, WHEN MIDDLE 60S AND LOWER 70S WERE MORE COMMON. TAKING A LOOK
AT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS AS WHOLE, PWATS HAVE TAKEN A DECENT HIT
TOO, NOW RANGING BETWEEN 0.5" OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA, TO AROUND 1.2-1.3" ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MOISTURE
PROFILES DO NO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW, EVEN ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF ARIZONA BUT A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY'S RUNS SHOWING
THE PEAK OF THE RIDGE AND TEMPERATURES OCCURRING ON SATURDAY
BEFORE THE RIDGE WEAKENS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NBM FOREAST HIGHS
HAVE COME DOWN A DEGREE OR SO FROM YESTERDAY, BUT IT IS HARD TO
FIND A GOOD REASON WHY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT
SOME DAILY HEAT RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN THIS WEEKEND WITH
SOUTHEAST CA LOWER DESERTS REACHING 115-120 DEGREES TO 113-117
DEGREES ACROSS THE ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS. TO GIVE SOME
PROSPECTIVE, PHOENIX HAS ONLY REACHED 116 DEGREES OR HIGHER 18
TIMES AFTER JULY 30TH, HALF OF WHICH OCCURRED SINCE 2023 AND ONLY
REACHED 117 DEGREES OR HIGHER 6 TIMES. THE PROBABILITY OF KPHX
HITTING AT LEAST 116 DEGREES FRIDAY-SUNDAY IS 20%, 67%, AND 35%
RESPECTIVELY. FOR SATURDAY, THE NBM ALSO SHOWS A 20-25%
PROBABILITY OF TYING THE ALL-TIME HOTTEST TEMPERATURE IN AUGUST OF
118 DEGREES WHICH OCCURRED AUGUST 7, 2025. WE WILL HAVE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT AT NIGHT, MORE SO ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS WHERE LOWS SHOULD STILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE
BULK OF THE PHOENIX METRO SHOULD HAVE LOWS ONLY IN A 90-95 DEGREE
RANGE FRIDAY-SUNDAY.
ANY POTENTIAL RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE TRENDING EVEN
LOWER WITH GUIDANCE MOSTLY SHOWING ANY DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME MEMBERS STILL
SHOW SOME IMPROVED CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOWS INTO
THE PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY EVENING, BUT IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY AT THE EARLIEST. GUIDANCE DOES AGREE
ON THE RIDGE NOTICEABLY WEAKENING BY MONDAY WITH H5 HEIGHTS
DROPPING TO 594-596DM, BUT THE RESIDUAL HEAT OVER THE REGION IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP EXTREME HEAT CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY.
THE RIDGE CENTER SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST,
CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY AROUND NEXT TUESDAY. IF AND
WHEN THIS HAPPENS, IT SHOULD OPEN UP PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR
BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. MONSOON STORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WHILE NBM FORECAST HIGHS DROP BACK TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMALS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1720Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER FEW-SCT AND AT TIMES BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECKS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR WESTERLY DIRECTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS AT
TIMES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A DISTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO PASS
INTO THE PHOENIX AREA FROM THE S/SE LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOW ON A FULL EASTERLY WIND SHIFT FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT REGARDLESS, WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AOB 6
KTS) FRIDAY MORNING. A SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN USUAL WEST WIND
SHIFT IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TRENDS IN WINDS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PAST 24 HOURS FEATURING A PREFERENCE TOWARDS A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT KBLH AND SOUTHEASTERLY AT KIPL BEFORE SHIFTING SW
THIS EVENING. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY AOB 10 KTS, BUT
WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID TEENS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KBLH
AND THIS EVENING AT KIPL.
FIRE WEATHER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK WHILE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR CONFINES ANY RAIN
CHANCES TO OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. EXPECT HUMIDITIES TO
CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MINRHS
SETTLING AT 10-15% BY FRIDAY, WHILE FALLING OVERNIGHT RHS OFFER
ONLY LITTLE TO MODEST RELIEF. RECORD TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL MOSTLY FOLLOW DIURNAL PATTERNS, BUT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE DOMINANT MUCH OF THE TIME WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF
15-20 MPH AT TIMES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
DATE PHOENIX YUMA EL CENTRO
---- ------- ---- ---------
JUL 31 116 IN 2020 119 IN 1957 119 IN 2020
AUG 1 116 IN 1972 117 IN 1993 118 IN 1993
AUG 2 114 IN 2025 117 IN 1918 117 IN 1969
AUG 3 116 IN 2024 116 IN 1998 117 IN 2021
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ530>563.
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ560>570.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...WHITTOCK
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
CLIMATE...18
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