850
FXUS65 KPSR 311738
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1038 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND WITH RECORD TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS
TOPPING 115 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS.
- IN RESPONSE TO THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS, EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT REGIONWIDE THROUGH MONDAY.
- DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL CONFINE ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A DANGEROUS HEAT DOME CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH H5 HEIGHTS SLATED TO REACH CLIMATOLOGICAL
RECORDS LATER TODAY AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE WILL SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER ARIZONA TODAY AS H5 HEIGHTS CLIMB
TO 598-600DM BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALSO DRIED
OUT ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS,
ESPECIALLY WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN POSSIBLY BREAK
DAILY RECORDS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
LOWER DESERTS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 113-117 DEGREES TO AS HIGH AS
116-120 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO BECOME EVEN MORE UNCOMFORTABLE WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH H5
HEIGHTS DROPPING TO 594-596DM OR RIGHT AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE
OF CLIMATOLOGY. DESPITE THE RIDGE WEAKENING, THE RESIDUAL HEAT
DOME WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO COOL AS FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY ONLY
DROP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM SUNDAY'S READINGS, KEEPING THE HEATRISK
AT MAJOR TO EXTREME FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
AND ALSO SHIFTS ITS ORIENTATION SOME, MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON SUNDAY AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL TICK UPWARDS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, FIRST OVER THE ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE LOWER DESERTS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO HELP TO COOL THINGS
OFF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, DROPPING THE HEATRISK INTO A HIGH-END
MODERATE TO LOW-END MAJOR. THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE STORM CHANCES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, SO ANY DELAY IN THE MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN HAVING TO
EXTEND THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING ANOTHER DAY OR SO FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1738Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING UNDER PERIODS OF MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS. WINDS WILL
PREDOMINANTLY FAVOR A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF EASTERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ANTICIPATED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
GUSTS INTO THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW. A FEW HIGH-
BASED SHOWERS OR VIRGA MAY INFRINGE ON THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE
PHOENIX AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS AT KIPL WILL FAVOR AN E/SE
COMPONENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WHILE WINDS AT KBLH WILL
VARY BETWEEN THE S AND SW. SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN AOB 10 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS INTO THE TEENS AT KBLH.
FIRE WEATHER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE RELATIVELY DRY AIR CONFINES ANY RAIN CHANCES TO
OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. EXPECT DAILY MINRHS MOSTLY BETWEEN
10-15%, WHILE FALLING OVERNIGHT RHS OFFER ONLY LITTLE TO MODEST
RELIEF. RECORD TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TODAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL MOSTLY FOLLOW DIURNAL
PATTERNS, BUT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE DOMINANT MUCH OF
THE TIME WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH AT TIMES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
DATE PHOENIX YUMA EL CENTRO
---- ------- ---- ---------
JUL 31 116 IN 2020 119 IN 1957 119 IN 2020
AUG 1 116 IN 1972 117 IN 1993 118 IN 1993
AUG 2 114 IN 2025 117 IN 1918 117 IN 1969
AUG 3 116 IN 2024 116 IN 1998 117 IN 2021
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ530>563.
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ560>570.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...SMITH/BENEDICT
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
CLIMATE...18
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