488
FXUS65 KPSR 062350
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
450 PM MST THU AUG 6 2026
UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AND
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
AND BLOWING DUST THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THIS AFTERNOON, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH AND IS MORE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA, BUT IT IS
STILL ELONGATED AS IT STRETCHES FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVELS A MCV CENTERED OVER YUMA,
AZ ALONG WITH STORMS FIRING UP ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE MCV
OVER YUMA, IS THE REMNANTS FROM LAST NIGHT'S COMPLEX OF STORMS OF
SONORA MEXICO THAT PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS THAT RESULTED IN A LARGE-SCALE DUST
EVENT. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO DROPPED BELOW 1 MILE
FROM THE BLOWING DUST EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY MOVED
THROUGH. SIMILAR TO MONDAY'S LARGE SCALE DUST EVENT, THE DUST AND
HAZY CONDITIONS, AND CORRESPONDING POOR AIR QUALITY, HUNG AROUND
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE
IT IS STILL A LITTLE HAZY OUT THERE, VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED
ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING VISIBILITIES
RETURN TO THE NORMAL 10 MILES.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SIMILAR TO
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. THE ENVIRONMENT IN SE AZ IS PRETTY
WORKED OVER FROM ALL THE ACTIVITY THEY'VE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THEREFORE, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THERE IS A 20-40%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF MUCAPE
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (1000-2000 J/KG) THERE IS STILL AN
ABUNDANCE OF CIN (AROUND 100 J/KG) THAT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT AND
SHOWERS OR STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THEREFORE THERE
IS LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. DESPITE THIS LOW END CHANCE CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A N/NE OUTFLOW MOVING OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. CAMS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON THIS POTENTIAL
AND THE OUTFLOW MAY WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE PHOENIX METRO OR
COULD ONLY RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT, WITH LITTLE TO NO GUSTY
CONDITIONS. THE 12Z HREF DOES SHOW 30% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35 MPH IN THE PHOENIX METRO AND 50% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH IN THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER, MORE RECENT RUNS
OF SOME OF THE CAMS SHOW THIS POTENTIAL DECREASING. WITH LIMITED
ACTIVITY ACROSS SE AZ EXPECTED THIS EVENING, A SE'RLY OUTFLOW IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THEREFORE NO BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED EITHER. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTH SLIGHTLY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THE THICK CLOUD COVER FROM THIS
MORNING HAS MOSTLY CLEARED OUT AND CLEARED OUT SOONER THAN THE
CLOUDS DID YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR TO A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN TODAY. TOMORROW HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AND GO
BACK TO AROUND 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS (GOES FROM H5 HEIGHTS OF AROUND 595 DM TODAY TO AROUND
597 DM TOMORROW). REGARDLESS INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE ARE WILL KEEP
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN EVEN
HOTTER APPARENT TEMPERATURES, WITH "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM 110 TO EVEN AROUND 120 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS OUT IN SE
CA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE CENTER OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS IT DOES THIS, IT WILL
ACTUALLY PULL IN SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES, HELPING TO
ADD TO WHAT IS ALREADY A RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
LOWER DESERT CONVECTION. IT SHOULD NOT INHIBIT CONVECTION COMPLETELY
IN THE TYPICALLY ACTIVE SPOTS, BUT COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT MORE
LIMITED. THIS "DRIER' PERIOD SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, INDUCING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN AND PROVIDING RENEWED MOISTURE FLUX.
RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY BUMP BACK UP, AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY
GET IN ON SOME RAIN WELL AS POPS INCREASE TO AROUND 20-30%, SOME OF
THE BETTER CHANCES SEEN IN A WHILE. THERE STILL MIGHT BE SOME
RECOVERY TIME FROM THE DRIER AIR NEEDED, SO IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING THAT ACTIVITY SUNDAY EVENING IS NOT VERY ROBUST FOR AREAS
SUCH AS MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTIES, BUT IT IS A POSITIVE SIGN TO
SEE AN UPTREND IN RAIN POTENTIAL NONETHELESS.
FOR NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IN
TERMS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS ENSEMBLES HAVE THE HIGH PARKED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS. LESS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, AND CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX
BODES WELL FOR CONTINUED RAINFALL CHANCES AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN
CURRENT POPS SIT BETWEEN 20-40% BASICALLY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS TYPICAL WITH THE MONSOON, WHAT DAYS ARE ACTIVE WILL
HAVE HEAVY INFLUENCE ON WHAT OCCURS THE DAY AFTER, SO DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST CHANGES SHOULD BE EXPECTED ONCE WE GET INTO THIS MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE AT THEIR HOTTEST ON
SATURDAY AS CURRENT PROJECTIONS HAVE WIDESPREAD READINGS BETWEEN 110-
116 DEGREES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. ADD THE HUMIDITY TO THAT AND IT
WILL NOT FEEL PARTICULARLY GREAT OUTSIDE. SOME MORE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO "COOL" AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY, WE MAY BE ABLE TO FINALLY ESCAPE EXTREME
HEAT CRITERIA BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK, AT LEAST FOR NOW.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2350Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
SLANTWISE VISIBILITY ISSUES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES DUE
TO DUST AND HAZE HAVE BEGUN TO IMPROVED AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS MATERIALIZING. BY EARLY
THIS EVENING, OUTFLOW WINDS EMANATING FROM STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL DESCEND INTO THE PHOENIX METRO FROM THE NE. THE
STRENGTH OF THE OUTFLOW WILL HIGHLY DEPEND UPON STORM COVERAGE.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF AN ABRUPT NW-NE
WIND SHIFT OCCURRING AT MOST TERMINALS BY 02Z-03Z. THE NORTHERLY
WINDS SHIFT MAY ONLY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE RETURNING TO
THE W-NW THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. TYPICAL
DIURNAL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST EXPECTED TO LAST A FEW SHORT HOURS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORMAL LATE MORNING WESTERLY DIRECTION.
SCT-BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SOME PERIODS OF CLEARING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES UNDER PERIODS OF MID/HIGH THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD CLEARING OUT IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY AT KIPL AND SOUTHERLY AT KBLH, WITH
CONTINUING GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT
KIPL.
FIRE WEATHER
HOT TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVELY ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THOUGH AFTERNOON RHS DO TREND
DOWNWARD FOR FRIDAY, REGIONAL READINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT 15% OR
ABOVE INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL OFFER MODEST TO
DECENT RELIEF AS MAXRHS RANGE GENERALLY BETWEEN 30-55%. RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY CONFINED TO HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA, WITH LOWER DESERT CHANCES
REMAINING 10% OR BELOW. BY SUNDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN AN UPTREND IN LOWER ELEVATION SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS, WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR
DIURNAL TRENDS, WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE BREEZINESS AROUND
20 MPH.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ530>544-546-
548>551-553>555-559.
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ560>570.
SHORT TERM...BERISLAVICH
LONG TERM...RW
AVIATION...95/SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH/RW
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